After deep adjustment, the risk of over speed rise in the early stage is fully released. Looking back on the historical trend, rubber market is usually prone to a high level around February, while according to the correlation analysis between NiO 3.4 index and Shanghai rubber, the rubber price usually falls in a round after Lanina phenomenon. No matter how short-term fluctuation, the main trend of the upward oscillation of rubber center of gravity is not changed.
Supply and demand increase in the overall situation
ANPRC issued data and trend report on natural rubber, and the main view is that the supply and demand of natural rubber in 2021 will rebound significantly, but the market rebalancing state may be repeated.
ANRPC expects that the global natural rubber production will reach 13.678 million tons in 2021, a significant increase of 8.6% year-on-year, but lower than the level of 1384200 tons in 2019; in 2021, the global demand for natural rubber is expected to reach 13.336 million tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, which is also lower than 13.768 million tons in 2019.
Long term statistics and estimates may not be significant for real-time trend and guidance of small and medium-sized transactions in the session, but these conclusions are clear again that the focus of natural rubber in the middle of the shock is the future market trend.
Basic elements are generally balanced
In terms of supply, Southeast Asian rubber producing countries enter a seasonal low production period. If the phenological conditions are normal, they will be opened and cut in the middle of April; the natural rubber production areas in China are in the stop cutting period, and Yunnan is expected to open and cut in late March, and Hainan will wait until the first ten days of April. In general, the global natural rubber production is at its lowest in a year, focusing on weather and disease and disease before cutting, and tracking Thailand’s progress in its plans to buy 200000 tons of glue. Although the epidemic situation in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other rubber producing countries has not been effectively controlled, from the experience of last year, except for the tight labor force of rubber cutting, the epidemic does not appear to have significantly affected the rubber production link. In terms of demand, with the comprehensive recovery of production by domestic tire enterprises, the overall starting load will continue to steadily increase; the situation of overseas epidemic situation is relieved and the economic recovery will bring the demand for replenishment of the warehouse. In terms of inventory, the rubber inventory micro increase sheet of the last period was stable, and the low level logic of warehouse order before the delivery of ru2105 contract was still established.
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Pay attention to the high yield expectation in Yunnan
The annual natural rubber cutting season is approaching. At present, the physical and climatic conditions in Xishuangbanna area are basically normal, and the rubber cutting cycle in 2021-2022 is expected to start in advance.
According to Zhuo Chuang research, the phenology of Yunnan production area is better than that of previous years. There are sporadic rainfall before and after the Spring Festival, and the germination of rubber trees is relatively ideal. March is the key period of rubber leaf growth. If there is no severe weather such as low temperature and drought, it is expected that a small part of the leaves will be cut in the middle and late ten days. Most areas will be ahead of the previous year before and after the end of the month. In order to ensure that the normal opening and cutting of rubber trees can be ensured, some areas have begun to fight pesticides.
In view of natural and human factors, the production area of Yunnan Province will be able to cut on time or in advance this year. All rubber factories are preparing for production and processing. After the last round of low production, the enthusiasm of rubber cutting and acquisition has been greatly enhanced this year, and the output materials will rebound year-on-year after cutting. Compared with this year and last year, the expectations of the natural rubber supply end are quite different. If upstream production is in accordance with the schedule, the gradual release of raw materials in the middle of the year will ease the market tension and shake the logic of delivery shortage in the 09 contract.
Strong demand support for tire vehicles
The characteristics of domestic tire enterprises starting around the Spring Festival are that although they are in the low seasonal law, they are better than the same period of previous years. From the beginning of the year, in order to complete the order, the enterprises have raised the commencement rate to over 80%, and the large factories have more full load production. During the holiday period, the measures of Floating Personnel staying in the new year reduce the risk of epidemic and ensure the rapid recovery of labor demand in manufacturing industry. Therefore, the pace of the downstream tire resumption after the festival is faster than in the previous years, especially in large-scale enterprises, which has a stable and good start-up, and the traditional off-season demand is significantly stronger than in the previous years.
According to the statistics of key enterprises, the report issued by China Automobile Industry Association estimates that: in the first two months of 2021, the cumulative sales volume of China’s auto industry has reached 3.95 million, an increase of 76.8% over the same period of last year. From the perspective of the segment market, the sales of passenger vehicles in China increased 69.4% year on year, while that of commercial vehicles increased by 80% year on year. The logic of the demand for rubber tires led by heavy truck was unchanged. After the two consecutive years of decline in 2019-2020, China’s auto market will return to the upward normal track in 2021. Overall, it is expected that China’s auto market will recover strongly in 2021, with a huge rubber consumption potential brought by base and growth rate.
Vibration and consolidation, inherent law core
Looking back on the trend of energy-based varieties, crude oil rose rubber first, and rubber plate adjusted to lead the decline, again reminded us that the basic rubber surface has not improved significantly from the accumulation of poverty and weakness. With the trend of commodity market overheating, it will enter the stage of shock sorting in a certain period. At present, rubber may be disordered in the relatively high position in the short and medium term, and the fluctuation of the disk surface is highly uncertain.
There is a common phenomenon in commodity analysis including natural rubber. Inflation logic is used when rising and the basic contradiction between decline and decline will be observed. After that, it is not enough to explain the price rise and fall through attribution. We can only judge the main logic of market transaction according to the market’s own trend. The cycle operation law of rubber itself is the blueprint of the main trend trend of the future.
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