1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene showed a trend of first rising and then falling this week. On January 10, the price of pure benzene was 4170-4550 yuan / ton (average price was 4424 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (January 17), the price of pure benzene was 4230-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4506 yuan / ton), up 82 yuan / ton or 1.85% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

At the beginning of this week, the price of pure benzene continued to rise, supported by the rise of crude oil. Later, with the decline of crude oil and the decline of external market, the domestic market mentality turned cautious, and the prices of individual factories decreased at the weekend. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 100 yuan / ton to 4650 yuan / ton, and the price in parts of North China was increased to 4500 yuan / ton. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 2000 tons higher than last week.

In terms of external market, the external market continued to be weak this week. On Friday (January 15), South Korea imported 649.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 15.34 US dollars / ton or 2.31% compared with January 8; East China imported 636 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 6 US dollars / ton or 0.93% compared with January 8.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell after rising this week, which was lower than last week. Compared with January 8, Brent fell by $0.775/barrel, or 1.42%; WTI rose by $0.16/barrel, or 0.31%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream: styrene: less arrival at the wharf, less storage than expected, and the overall market supply is tighter than that in the early stage. The overall downstream operation rate was stable, the three downstream benefits were acceptable, the demand for styrene was maintained, and the market transaction was improved. On Friday (January 15), the price of sample enterprises was 6700 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton or 2.29% compared with last Friday, and down 7.37% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in the north, the transportation is affected, and the demand in the lower reaches of the north is limited to a certain extent. However, the relative load of aniline enterprises is not high, the spot supply is reduced, the inventory is controllable, and the price is firm. On January 17, the price of aniline was 7800-7900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 8000-8100 yuan / ton in Nanjing.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, boosted by favorable news such as Saudi Arabia’s voluntary additional production reduction and Biden’s announcement of a new round of U.S. economic stimulus plan, crude oil is strong and the pattern remains unchanged, and oil prices are expected to continue to rise.

Affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in the north, the downstream terminals may stop ahead of time, and the pure benzene enterprises may reduce the price to promote the shipment. And the external market has continued to soften. The price of pure benzene is expected to be weak next week. Pay attention to the situation of downstream stock preparation and shutdown before the festival, and the trend of crude oil, external market and styrene.