Magnesium market trend
On June 22, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas varied. At present, the mainstream quotation began to differentiate, with the overall range of 13050-13500 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation was the main part.
According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic market on the 22nd was 13233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.13% compared with the average price of 13216.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of June (6.1); the average price of market on the 19th weekend was 13133.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76%.
Magnesium price has been fluctuating for a long time
In June, the market of magnesium ingot mainly fluctuated at the bottom of the market, with a relatively stable trend. The manufacturer’s quotation was basically stable, with slight mobilization from time to time, and the overall trend was stable.
Market participants believe that at present, the price of magnesium ingots is stable in June, and domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they are basically purchasing on demand, and they are not willing to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are less willing to reduce price and promote sales, more willing to stop production and repair, and the market supply and demand game tends to be stable.
Supply and demand are relatively stable
According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to April 2020, China’s Communist original magnesium 255800 tons, down 6.00% year on year. The output of the first four months has slightly decreased. In summer, with the influence of weather factors and the superposition of traditional maintenance practices, the manufacturer’s operating rate is expected to move down.
Note: the annual output of raw magnesium in 2019 is 969000 tons.
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On the export side, the export market in the first four months was good, and the recent export was weak, but domestic consumption returned to normal. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to April 2020, the total export volume of six kinds of tax number magnesium products in China is 162500 tons, an increase of 1.63% year on year.
Among them, from January to April, 86500 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, up 1.63% year on year; 43600 tons of magnesium alloy, up 6.08% year on year; 27500 tons of magnesium powder, down 10.71% year on year; 2600 tons of magnesium waste, up 116.67% year on year; 15000 tons of magnesium products, down 6.25% year on year; and 0800 tons of magnesium processing materials, the same as the same period last year.
List of monthly exports of unwrought and rolled magnesium in 2019-2020:
April is the starting point for commodity prices (including non-ferrous metals) to rise to fill the price hole of the epidemic hit at the beginning of the year. The price of magnesium ingot also stopped falling and stabilized in the first ten days of April, but the upward attack was weak, and the basic magnesium price fluctuated mainly at the bottom, based on the following two factors:
1. In recent years, the price trend of magnesium ingot is good and relatively high;
On June 21, the magnesium commodity index was 80.08, the same as yesterday, 30.02% lower than the highest point 114.43 (2012-08-01), and 10.18% higher than the lowest point 72.68 on January 10, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-03-01 to now).
2. The export proportion of magnesium ingots is relatively large, and the external environment has a relatively large impact on the price of magnesium ingots. According to relevant statistics, in 2019, China exported 452000 tons of various magnesium products, accounting for 46.6% of the total magnesium output.
Domestic demand is not enough to drive up the market of magnesium ingots. Since mid April, the price of magnesium ingots has been running steadily.
Future forecast
The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingots is low, and the weather is gradually turning hot. It is expected that some factories will be shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply side will have some good price for magnesium. When the Dragon Boat Festival comes, some manufacturers will increase their price, and they are expected to break the steady state in the near future, with a slight increase. In the later stage, they will pay attention to the change of downstream purchase rhythm.
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