Supply increase and demand fail to move up synchronously, and silicon metal price declines

According to the data of business agency, on June 12, the average domestic market price of silicon metal (441ා) was 10675 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.39% compared with 11050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.79%, a decrease of 14.91% compared with 12500 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival.


The price of 441 × silicon in each region on December 12 is as follows:


The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 10300-10400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 10500-10600 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 10300-10500 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 11200-11400 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 10700-10800 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 10600-10800 yuan / ton 。


Increasing supply of silicon metal gradually entering the wet season


In June, the price of metal silicon 441 was greatly affected by the supply and demand.


At the supply end, as the southwest region gradually enters the wet season, silicon enterprises open more furnaces. In the direction of Yunnan, the starting load of Baoshan and Lincang silicon plants increases; in the direction of Sichuan, the enthusiasm of silicon plants to open furnaces increases greatly; in the direction of Xinjiang, the production problems caused by the shortage of silica and the factors of power supply equipment are basically solved. With the increase of the operating rate of two large factories in Xinjiang and the smooth operation of medium-sized enterprises in Ili and other places, the capacity will be released or more fully in June.


The operating rate of silicon enterprises has increased, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and the supply of metal silicon has increased. However, the demand of downstream consumers has not increased at the same time, and the overall bargaining power of silicon enterprises has shifted down.


On the one hand, the export market is still weak in June, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; on the other hand, the downstream demand in the domestic market is relatively picking up, because of the doubt about the terminal demand and the expectation of raw materials is short, the raw materials procurement is more cautious, mainly on demand, and the raw materials inventory is low.


Three downstream demand poor raw material procurement cautious


1. Polysilicon


According to the data of the business agency, the domestic polysilicon price in June continued the downturn since April, with the bottom low operating mainly.


It is reported that the domestic polysilicon output in May was 32000 tons, a decline of more than 10% on a month on month basis. In June, there were still more than five polysilicon manufacturers in China, including Xinjiang Daquan, Dongfang hope, new special energy, Sichuan Yongxiang, etc. Although domestic polysilicon manufacturers cut production and stop production, the price of imported silicon materials has been innovatively low, which has a great impact on the domestic market price.


On the one hand, the installation of demand end and global terminal is blocked, and the overseas orders of domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, which causes the operation rate of domestic component manufacturers to be lowered one after another, which has a great impact on domestic polysilicon demand; on the other hand, the polysilicon import volume in April and may has always been at a low level, according to statistics, the polysilicon import volume in April was about 8000 tons, down 28% on a month on month basis, down 34% on a year-on-year basis. Although the import volume at the import end moved down, the price of polysilicon imported materials continued to decline at the beginning of June, with a drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton in the first week of June, which had a great impact on the domestic market price.


It is expected that in June, the operating rate and output of domestic polysilicon will move down, which is bad for the demand of raw metal silicon.


2. Organosilicon DMC



According to the data of business agency, after the return of the year, the price of organosilicon DMC fell sharply, and the low-level operation was mainly from April to May.


At the end of May, the market of organosilicon DMC opened, and the demand for organosilicon DMC improved in June. On the one hand, based on the positive replenishment of downstream, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is small. On the other hand, some factories have plans to cut production and stop repairing, and the market is expected to be better. (see the figure below for the equipment of some manufacturers)


Name of enterprise date price (yuan / ton including tax) commencement of equipment

On June 10, 17100 yuan / ton unit of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was in normal operation

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. on June 10, 16500 yuan / ton, normal operation of the plant

Zhejiang Hesheng group on June 10, 17000 yuan / ton normal operation

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng will not receive the single unit temporarily on June 10, in the process of shutdown and maintenance

Shandong Jinling group will not make an offer temporarily on June 10. There is a maintenance plan this week

Hubei Xingfa group does not offer the equipment for normal operation temporarily on June 10

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily not submitting the offer for maintenance on June 10

Shandong Dongyue Group will not offer a set of equipment maintenance on June 10

The price rise of downstream organosilicon DMC is mainly due to the increase of shutdown and maintenance of manufacturers, the improvement of demand and supply factors.


However, at present, organosilicon, especially some monomer plants, based on the factors of supply chain management, raw material procurement is affected by the expected factors of buying up and not buying down, and is mainly operated cautiously. The stock of raw materials is not large. At present, consumption stock and a small amount of stock replenishment procurement are mainly based on demand. In short term, the demand for raw metal silicon is not significantly enlarged, and the benefits are not outstanding.


3. Aluminum alloy


Recently, the inventory of aluminum industry chain has been significantly reduced. As of June 4, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 46000 tons to 847000 tons compared with that of last Monday (the social inventory of aluminum ingots on May 21 was 964000 tons). It is reported that the consumption of domestic profile and aluminum foil plate is good, and the consumption of aluminum plate, strip and recycled aluminum and aluminum cable is general, but the export is not optimistic. In May 2020, China’s exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum materials were 382900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%.


The operation rate of domestic aluminum alloy is affected by the improvement of terminal automobile consumption, and the operation rate is relatively high. According to the data of China Travel Federation, the retail sales of major manufacturers in May reached an average of 49000 vehicles per day, an increase of 12% on a month on month basis compared with April, and the year-on-year data basically matched the same period last year.

However, with the opening of the profit window of aluminum ingot import, the imported aluminum alloy may occupy the domestic aluminum alloy Market in the later stage. It is expected that the consumption of silicon metal for aluminum alloy will be weakened after June.


Future forecast


The metal silicon purchased under rigid demand is greatly affected by the overall supply and demand factors. With the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity has been released, while the downstream consumption is not likely to expand synchronously. It is expected that in the near future, the metal silicon will be mainly operated in the air, and in the later stage, the environmental policy factors and the impact of the average cost of social production on the supply side will be focused.

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