1、 Price trend
The domestic butadiene market was slightly sorted out. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 4295 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the week was 4345 yuan / ton, up 1.16% in the week. The price rose 22.95% month on month and 45.88% year-on-year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Products: in this cycle, the domestic butadiene market is weak in consolidation, and the supplier price adjustment is limited, which is difficult to form a sustained support for the market. The downstream raw material inventory is relatively abundant, and the poor transaction brings certain drag to the market. During the week, both Puyang Bluestar and Inner Mongolia Jiutai units were temporarily shut down for maintenance. The supply side continued to shrink at the beginning of this week, which brought a certain boost to the market atmosphere. However, Sinopec’s price adjustment policy has not been implemented yet. The supply in the circulation link of the northern market is relatively abundant. Under the drag of downstream demand, the market is weak. The atmosphere in East China is weak. The low price transaction of some goods sources drags down the market focus, and there is no lack of spot circulation to the northern market in the week, which results in the poor transaction of slightly high price goods sources in Northeast China and the overall drag market atmosphere.
In terms of enterprises, Puyang Bluestar’s 50000t / a butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on May 10, and the restart time has not been determined yet; Jiutai’s 70000t / a butadiene plant in Inner Mongolia was shut down for maintenance on May 12 in the evening, with an estimated duration of 5-7 days; Nanjing Chengzhi’s 100000 t / a butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on April 7, with a planned restart time of about May 16; some domestic plants were shut down intensively As a result, the overall operating rate of butadiene industry continued to decline to less than 60%.
In terms of industrial chain: SBR: in this cycle, the mainstream factory price of domestic SBR sales companies rose by a narrow margin, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton. Some sales companies did not adjust the price of oil and rubber. The start-up rate of styrene butadiene plant was slightly increased to around 60.20% (of which, the start-up rate of emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene plant was around 60%); Qilu, Yangzi, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Weitai, Shenhua and Bridgestone all operated normally; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plant continued to stop.
Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased by a narrow range. The operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant continued to rise to around 60.9%, and that of the ChuanHua cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant continued to rise to full load operation after restart. The operation of other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants was stable, and the operation rate of the overall high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industry continued to rise compared with the previous cycle. However, in the later period, the operation rate of Maoming cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was affected by the shutdown
3、 Future forecast
On the positive side, Wanda and Yuhuang raw materials need to be purchased, the overall operating rate of butadiene in China continues to decline, and the operating rate of downstream industries remains relatively high. On the negative side, the tire, automobile and other terminal industries are still weak. Iranian and European ships are expected to arrive in Hong Kong. There is abundant supply in circulation, high price transactions are not smooth, and some suppliers in the north have accumulated inventory. Butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will be weak next week, and there is no lack of expectation for a small decline in prices. It is suggested to pay attention to the latest prices and transaction guidelines of the internal and external market.