1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the price of R134a in China fell this week. As of the end of the week, the price was 21666.67 yuan / ton, down 2.99% compared with 22333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 26.14% compared with the same period last year. On May 8, the R134a commodity index was 79.27, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, down 20.73% from the peak of 100.00 on September 2, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)
2、 Market analysis
Products: the domestic refrigerant R134a market demand is low, the automotive industry level air-conditioning after-sales industry demand is weak, at the same time, the export has not recovered, the production enterprises start stable, the market supply is stable, the manufacturers forced by the shipping pressure, the phenomenon of profit delivery is obvious, but there are limits to the transaction in the field, the market is poor. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of May 9, the price of refrigerant R134a was mostly concentrated around 18500 yuan / ton, 1-24000 yuan / ton, and the actual price was relatively low.
Industrial chain: on May 9, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7600-8500 yuan / ton. The factory price of some manufacturers in the field fell, the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was average, the supply of goods in the field was sufficient, and the market price in the field continued to fall. The price trend of upstream product anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to decline, and the supply of spot goods was sufficient, but the demand situation did not improve significantly, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid declined.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there are 37 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 17 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 19.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are trichloromethane (17.86%), crude benzene (14.59%) and phenol (11.04%). There are 29 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are R22 (- 10.10%), isopropanol (- 8.93%) and fluorite (- 6.83%). This week’s average was 0.97%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, at present, the price of refrigerant R134a is declining, the terminal demand is sluggish, the export is not smooth, and the supporting force of raw material end is weakened, and the market is expected to still have the risk of falling in the short term.