1、 Price trend
According to the bulk data list of business agency, the price of phosphoric acid market fell in April, and the market reversed the price rise at the end of the month. On April 30, the average price of phosphoric acid in China was 5100 yuan / ton, down 4.37% from the beginning of the month and up 10.45% from the same period last year. The phosphoric acid commodity index on May 5 was 111.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 22.30% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
Product: the phosphoric acid market is generally in this month, and the price is stable and down. At the beginning of the month, the price is 5333.33 yuan / ton, and then continues to fall. The lowest price is 4966.67 yuan / ton, and the price rebounds near the end of the month, 2.68% higher than the lowest price, ushering in the turning point. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw materials fell, and the price of phosphoric acid market fell. At the same time, due to the impact of foreign public health events, the situation of phosphoric acid export was not good, and domestic demand was not large. Most enterprises went with the market, and the focus of transaction shifted down. Enterprises with high prices lowered their prices according to their own situation, which was conducive to shipment. At the end of the month, due to the rise of yellow phosphorus at the end of raw materials, the price of phosphoric acid in duodi rose with the market, while some enterprises remained stable for a while. Near the holiday, the downstream of phosphoric acid stock up before the festival, some regions have snatched goods market, phosphoric acid enterprise shipment situation turned better, traders actively entered the market, the confidence of the industry increased. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of April 30, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5100 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was about 4900-5300 yuan / ton, the price in Guangxi was about 5100 yuan / ton, the price in Yunnan was about 5200 yuan / ton, the price in Beijing was about 5100 yuan / ton, and the price in each region was increased to some extent.
Industry chain: Recently, the price of yellow phosphorus market has been raised, the spot supply of yellow phosphorus in the whole site is tight, the downstream stock has increased, and the price of yellow phosphorus has increased significantly. However, the actual volume of transactions is not large, and it is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will still run at a high level in the short term. In April, the domestic phosphate rock market as a whole remained low and stable, and the market was mostly in a state of consolidation. New orders were generally traded in the market, and the on-site construction continued to improve slowly. The overall operation of domestic phosphate ore market has basically recovered as before. Recently, the inquiry of downstream products of phosphate ore has not been significantly improved, and the overall market trend is weak.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 17th week of 2020 (4.27-5.1), 21 commodities rose month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, with the top three commodities rising respectively being ethylene oxide (5.00%), acetic anhydride (4.48%) and hydrobenzene (4.23%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 7 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 7.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 7.64%), formic acid (- 7.25%), PX (- 6.98%). This week’s average was – 0.28%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and chemical branch, the raw material end rose before the festival, and the price of phosphoric acid enterprises increased more, but the terminal demand is difficult to recover significantly in a short period of time, and it is expected that the recent market of phosphoric acid market is mainly stable.