1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market atmosphere continued to be depressed. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of April 17, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9600 yuan / ton, with a 1.64% month on month drop in price and a 5.91% year-on-year increase.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic BDO market atmosphere continued to be depressed this week. BDO’s main factories, such as Heci, Kaixiang and Dongyuan, have no plans to restart due to inventory pressure and weak market. There is no turning point in the international epidemic, and the terminal demand is not expected to be good. After the main downstream PBT plants stop at Kaixiang and weijiao, Meizhou Bay and Meiyuan are also passively stopped, and other factories operate at low load; meanwhile, the spandex inventory is high, and the demand for PTMEG is weak; other downstream PBT plants, such as PU slurry, are also at low level. In the downstream, the digestion of raw materials is slow, and the settlement of high price is in conflict. The combination of contract and spot purchase is highly stressed. Because BDO social inventory is on the high side, the actual single trading is thin, and some operators are short-sighted, and they often make profits and promotions in a reasonable space.

In terms of devices, this week, Heci stopped for maintenance on March 27; Kaixiang stopped for maintenance, and the restart time was not determined; MEC’s load was 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device was in normal operation, The restart time of other units is to be determined; Dongyuan shut down for maintenance on March 5 and the restart time is not determined; Tunhe phase I is 50% and phase II is shut down; Ronghe shut down for maintenance; Xinye shut down for catalyst replacement on March 25; Sinopec load drops to about 50%; heimao shut down for catalyst replacement on April 10, which is expected to be 15 days.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol market rose first and then fell this week, with a general turnover. Last week, the smooth delivery and investment in various regions, coupled with the favorable temporary maintenance of Kaiyue and Yumei coal chemical devices, led by the strong price mentality of upstream production enterprises. At present, the industry is bearish on the future market, Shenhua Yulin continues to overhaul, and the methanol consumption in the northwest region is reduced, so it is expected that the methanol weakness will decline next week.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market was affected by the decline of PVC manufacturers, and the price dropped significantly. At present, the inventory of production enterprises in Northwest China is under pressure, and the market trading atmosphere is light. In order to promote shipment, the production enterprises reduce the ex factory price. At present, the ex factory price in Wuhai is 2250-2300 yuan / ton, and there is still a trend of further exploration. Influenced by the cost pressure, calcium carbide enterprises have also kept down the purchase price of Lancan in the near future. It is understood that the price of Lancan intermediate materials in Shaanxi is 620 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the market load is about 40%, but the effect of limiting production and insuring price is very little. The terminal demand is still in a low state, the downstream industries are forced to produce at a low negative rate, the consumption of raw materials BDO is slow, and the downstream industries are strongly resistant to the hanging settlement. At the same time, they choose the spot purchase mode, and the market price is low, just need to make up the position. Supply and demand are weak, negotiation and saw saw. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to be weak next week, specifically focusing on the main downstream construction and device dynamics.