The natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 27.67, up 0.12 points from yesterday, down 72.33% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and up 0.44% from the lowest point of 27.55 on March 30, 2020, according to data from Business News Agency (100ppi. Com). (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The price of 18 year Baodao whole milk of natural rubber in East China monitored by the business association was 10400 yuan / ton on March 1, 9200 yuan / ton on March 30, and the market price of this month fell by 1300 yuan / ton, or 10.67%.

According to the data of the previous period, on March 18, 2020, the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong broke 10000 yuan, which is still fluctuating and decreasing; on November 27, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9300 yuan / ton, which has broken the low value of 9350 yuan / ton that Shanghai Jiaotong went out on November 30, 2015; on November 30, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9115 yuan / ton, which has renewed the new low price; looking back at the historical trend, the lower price of Shanghai Jiaotong is 8 on December 31, 2008 715 yuan / ton, Shanghai rubber is at the lowest price in 11 years.

Factor analysis:

Supply: currently in the off-season of rubber production. The drought and powdery mildew in China lead to the expected decrease of production, and the rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia are obviously affected by the epidemic. On March 18, Penang Port of Malaysia announced that it would not accept the transit of Thai goods. Under the measures of “closure of the city”, Malaysia’s domestic high storage pressure is huge. Malaysia’s “closure” will directly reduce China’s imports from Malaysia by about 3-35000 tons. And the “closure” has basically shut down the domestic rubber processing plant in Malaysia, which will significantly reduce the import demand for Thailand’s concentrated latex and African rubber raw materials, affecting Thailand’s export volume of about 40000 tons. While Thailand is urgently allocating ports in Thailand, the price of rubber raw materials in Thailand has fallen, and the price of cup rubber is the lowest ever.

Inventory: data shows that as of March 27, the warehouse receipt inventory of the stock exchange in the previous period was at a low level in the same period, but the stock of imported rubber arrived at the port after the year accumulated. It is said that the stock of natural rubber at the spot end of Qingdao Free Trade zone was high and under great pressure. As of March 27, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 242467 tons, 1907 tons less than that of February 28, and the futures inventory was 236670 tons, 1730 tons less than that of February 28, 184750 tons less than that of the same period in 2019; the rubber inventory of energy 20 of the previous period was 73829 tons, 11917 tons more than that of February 28, and the futures inventory was 53545 tons, 9777 tons more than that of February 28. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao free trade zone is 753400 tons, including 188000 tons in free trade zone and 565400 tons in general trade.

Import and export: according to customs data, from January to February 2020, China imported 840200 tons of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber), an increase of 5.03% over the same period in 2019. From January to February 2020, China’s import standard is 223100 tons, an increase of 39600 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import tobacco flake rubber is 23300 tons, an increase of 0100 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import mixed rubber is 526900 tons, an increase of 21100 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import compound rubber is 8900 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons compared with the same period of 2019.

Demand: first of all, the demand of tire enterprises is greatly reduced: in March, the domestic tire enterprises returned to work stably and resumed production. At first, the domestic epidemic situation was well controlled, and the enterprise mentality was positive. Later, the spread of foreign countries was rapid, which had a huge impact on downstream orders. The tire export was blocked, and the production situation of tire enterprises was not as expected. Secondly, the downward cost of substitute rubber has put pressure on Tianjiao: the current international crude oil slump has a very direct impact on its chemical industry chain goods. As a result, the cost of butadiene in natural rubber has decreased and the cost of synthetic rubber has been reduced. As part of synthetic rubber can replace natural rubber in the production of tire factories, the depressed natural rubber market has become even worse.

Policy: on March 17, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the announcement on increasing the export tax rebate rate of some products, saying that from March 20, 2020, the export tax rebate rate of 1084 products will be increased to 13%; the export tax rebate rate of 380 products will be increased to 9%. The export tax rebate rate of synthetic rubber increased from 10% to 13%, encouraging the export of synthetic rubber. However, under the influence of the bad macro environment and the serious contraction of downstream demand, the pressure on the synthetic rubber outlet is obvious.

Future forecast:

According to the natural rubber analyst of business agency, at present, Tianjiao is in the cut-off period, the supply of core rubber is limited, and the prevention and control measures such as rubber production and state closure in special situation cause the supply chain of Tianjiao to be blocked, the downstream demand is weak, the orders are seriously shrinking, the existing inventory is high, and the Tianjiao market is expected to remain under pressure.