1、 Price trend
According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week, as of Friday, 6.37% lower than last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
1. Product: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, worrying about the shrinking demand for crude oil caused by the economic recession, and adding to the OPEC + production increase expectation. Affected by this, the price of international crude oil fell sharply this week, as well as the price of toluene in the South Korean market, the main source of toluene import. Although domestic enterprises gradually enter the resumption period and the market demand gradually improves, the price of domestic toluene still follows the decline. At present, China The main price in the East is about 4500 yuan / ton.
2. Industrial chain:
Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price maintained a wide and volatile trend after plummeting at the beginning of this week. As of Friday, Brent futures fell 32.31%, Brent futures fell 28.09%, WTI futures fell 22.96% and Dubai futures fell 32.74%.
Downstream, TDI: at present, the price of toluene TDI is about US $557 / T FOB ARA, and the price of domestic goods delivered with tickets is 10600 yuan / T for reference. It is expected that the TDI market will stabilize next week. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 5500 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 593 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 611 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will stabilize and rebound next week.
3、 Future forecast
Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, concern about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of toluene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will rebound next week, adding that domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. It is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will stabilize and rebound next week, but it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range in the environment of high inventory of toluene industry and smooth industrial chain recovery.