The domestic acetic acid market is waiting to be sorted out and operated. Near the Spring Festival holiday, under the downstream stock operation, the prices in the south and north are differentiated. The stock in Shandong and North China is active, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the price of acetic acid rises slightly; Downstream stock in East China and South China performed generally, with light intra-field trading, and the downstream mainly followed up as required. The price was stable during the week. The domestic acetic acid market has sufficient supply, which is affected by the downstream demand as a whole.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 2950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29% compared with the price of 2912.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and a decrease of 7.09% month-on-month. As of January 13, the market price of acetic acid in various regions during the week was as follows:

Region/ January 6/ January 13/ Price rise and fall

South China/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 0

North China/ 2800 yuan/ton/ 2900 yuan/ton/ +100

Shandong region/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2900 yuan/ton/ +50

Jiangsu Province/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang Province/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated and fell. As of January 13, the average price in the domestic market was 2651 yuan/ton, down 1.08% compared with the price of 2680 yuan/ton at the end of last week. The coal price on the cost side is stable, the methanol support is weakened, the external methanol market is falling, the supply side is abundant, the downstream purchase demand is general, the market buying gas is weak, and the methanol market trend is declining.

The downstream acetic anhydride market was in a weak downward trend. As of January 13, the ex-factory price of acetic anhydride was 5312.50 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of last week was 5350.00 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The upstream acetic acid price fluctuates slightly, the acetic anhydride cost support is limited, the downstream demand is temporarily stable, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the acetic anhydride market is wait-and-see.

The downstream ethyl acetate market is weak. As of January 13, the average ex-factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 6883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% compared with the price of 6933.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week. In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market is weak, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream follow-up at the demand end is weak, the stock intention is general, and the market is weak.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the acetic acid analyst of the business agency believes that the demand for downstream stock increases near the Spring Festival holiday, the acetic acid manufacturers are actively shipping, and the on-site trading atmosphere may improve, but the downstream demand is limited, and the short-term acetic acid price fluctuates little. It is expected that the acetic acid market will sort up slightly, and pay special attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average price of domestic industrial grade and superior cyclohexane was 7100.00 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from the same period last week, or about 100 yuan/ton. In the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable and strong.

This week, the average price of cyclohexane, a domestic industrial top-grade product, was 7100.00 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 7000 yuan/ton. At present, the supply range is normal, and the logistics has been shut down near the end of the year. The overall market just needs to purchase, and the delivery is slow.

Chemical index: The chemical index was 910 points on January 12, down 2 points from yesterday, down 35.00% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 52.17% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Cyclohexane analysts from the Business Agency believe that the cyclohexane market will maintain stable, medium and strong operation in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of January 11, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 156000 yuan/ton. The market for lithium iron phosphate was weak, and the price was slightly reduced, 4.88% lower than that of the same period last week. The mainstream price range was around 155000 yuan/ton. It was mainly for contract customers, and new orders were not received.

The price of lithium iron phosphate is weak, down 8000 yuan/ton, or 4.88%, compared with the same period last week. At present, the mainstream price is 155000 yuan/ton. The downstream just needs to purchase, the logistics is slow, and the weak operation is maintained in the short term. The manufacturers supply only old customers, and new customers do not accept orders.

Chemical commodity index: The chemical index was 912 points on January 10, up 3 points from yesterday, down 34.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 52.51% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analyst of LiFePO4 of the Business Agency believes that the market of LiFePO4 will operate in a narrow range and weak in the short term.

From December 30 to January 6, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose. The price at the end of last week was 75000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of this week was 76250 yuan/ton, up 1250 yuan/ton, up 1.67%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, and remained flat for seven consecutive weeks. At the end of October, the price began to decline continuously, and recovered slightly after the end of December.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony was temporarily stable, and the price was at $11500/ton as of January 6, which was temporarily stable during the week, which had a certain boost to market sentiment.

The antimony ingot market recovered slightly this week, with an increase of about 1000-1250 yuan/ton in the week. Near the end of the year, the market had a certain stock demand, while some manufacturers in the industrial chain began to shut down one after another, and the market supply was further tight, so the market price continued to rise in the week. Enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the market supply is slightly tight. In the future, the business association believed that the fundamental changes in the antimony ingot market were not big, and the supply of the ore end was still tight, and the recent release of downstream demand was also mostly caused by the stock preparation before the holiday. In the future, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to be stable, medium and strong in the short term, and the market will be gradually weak in the near holiday in the long term, and the market will be temporarily stable.

Antimony oxide market rose slightly this week, due to a wave of rebound in the stock market before the holiday. In general, the sales situation of antimony oxide market is still weak, and the downstream market purchases on demand. The flame retardant market performs generally, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. The purchase of antimony ingots by antimony oxide enterprises is still on demand in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose slightly, and the domestic light rare earth market rose. The rare earth index was 670 points on January 8, down 33.47% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 147.23% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The price of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide rose, and the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 875000 yuan/ton as of the 9th day, up 1.16% from the 1st day; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 717500 yuan/ton, 1.06% higher than that of the first day; The price of neodymium oxide was 790000 yuan/ton, 2.60% higher than that of the first day; The price of neodymium metal was 967500 yuan/ton, 1.67% higher than that of the first day; The price of praseodymium metal was 935000 yuan/ton, 2.19% higher than that of the first day; The price of praseodymium oxide is 695000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable.

The supply of light rare earths in China has decreased, and the production cost is high near the end of the year. In addition to the overhaul and factory commissioning at the end of the year, the separation plant and waste recovery enterprises have reduced production and shut down a lot recently. The spot supply of rare earths in the market is in short supply, and the downstream purchasing and stocking sentiment is high, and the light rare earths market is rising. Recently, there have been many production holidays, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is high. The delivery situation of dealers has improved, and the transaction price has risen.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is guaranteed. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of automobiles in China reached 2.386 million and 2.328 million respectively in November 2022, down 8.2% and 7.1% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 768000 and 786000 respectively, up 65.6% and 72.3% year on year, and the market share reached 33.8%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles rose, the demand in the new energy field supported, and the rare earth market rose.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of the rare earth industry are sustainable development. The supply of production enterprises has been reduced recently. In the short term, the market price of rare earth will still rise. In the long term, the demand for rare earth is still guaranteed. We are optimistic about the development of the rare earth industry.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 6, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9150.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that on Tuesday (January 3).

This week, the epoxy propane market is in a stalemate. In the near future, the price of propylene as raw material has been largely stable and slightly changed, with little impact on the cost. The supply side started to work slightly, but the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation was general, so we should be cautious to wait and buy. The factory shipments became weak, and the inventory slowly came under pressure. Under the supply and demand game, the market consolidated and shipped. On the 6th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 8950-9100 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market was stable and slightly moved this week, maintaining overall stability. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7244 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.08%.

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is average, the supply side is mainly stable, and the downstream reduction is wait-and-see. The market atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will operate under pressure in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business community, in December, the PP market rose and fell with each other, the wire drawing brand ran in shock, and the fiber products rose. As of December 31, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) was about 7858.33 yuan/ton, up or down by – 0.32% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain. Subsequently, due to the rising cost, the downstream product profit was tightened, and the commencement was reduced, so the procurement was restrained. In order to stabilize the delivery of propylene, the prices of propylene enterprises decreased successively. In the middle of the month, the price of propylene fell to a low level, and the downstream bought on bargain. The supply of low price goods was smooth, and the price rose a small peak. In the late ten days, due to the impact of domestic public security incidents, transportation and manpower were affected. The offer of propylene continued to decline, with a fall of 5.8% for the whole month, 4.03% YoY.

Propylene prices rose and then fell, and PP cost side support was first strong and then weak this month. In terms of industry load, the maintenance and resumption of work of PP polymerization enterprises coexisted in December, and the industry load increased overall, adjusting operation at about 80%. The supply of goods on the site is sufficient, and the inventory position drops within the month. In terms of demand, the market of the products started by downstream plastic knitting enterprises is average, and the stock volume of BOPP enterprises has limited change, while it has declined year-on-year. In December, the wire drawing materials ran in shock, and the end of the month was weak. The power for the rise in the middle of the month was driven by the blowout demand for wire drawing materials.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8133.33 yuan/ton, up or down 1.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and+0.21% year-on-year. In this month, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main source of PP fiber, increased, the profit of spunbonded non-woven fabrics was fair, and the demand of terminal enterprises increased significantly. The digestion speed of nonwoven end products has increased, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP is moderate. The kinetic energy on the site will remain firm, and it may still maintain consolidation and operation in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the market of meltblown PP rose significantly in December. As of December 31, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 11133.33 yuan/ton, which was+23.70% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month, and+16.99% higher than the same period last year. In terms of international health events, the current optimization of China’s health event disposal has led to a large demand for masks. Social consumption has played a significant role in pulling medical melt blown fabric materials, but the trend has weakened at the end of the month. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped. At present, the supply of melt blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises have high starting saturation, but the inventory has not accumulated. Therefore, the price of melt blown materials may be stable when the demand momentum slows down.

Future market forecast

PP analysts from the business agency believed that the good performance of polypropylene market in December was mainly due to the high demand for meltblown materials. The raw material propylene market rose first and then fell, and the cost side support weakened. The terminal enterprises just need to maintain their strength, and the trading in the market is OK, but the buyers are cautious in their operations. It is expected that the PP market will continue to operate firmly in the short term.

Zinc price fell in December

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 23974 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 4.07% from 24992 yuan/ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month. The demand of zinc market was less than expected, and the zinc price fell in December.

Domestic PMI fell continuously, and the demand of zinc market was lower than expected

In December, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 47.0%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point. The manufacturing industry’s production and operation prosperity level fell back from the previous month. PMI has been lower than 50% for three consecutive months. Affected by the impact of the epidemic situation and other factors, China’s purchasing manager index has declined from last month. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the market trend is expected to recover in the later period.

Supply and demand factors in zinc market

In terms of supply, the cold wave is coming, domestic electricity is occupying industrial electricity, European zinc smelting may be affected by production reduction, and zinc supply is expected to shrink. All EU countries agreed that the price ceiling of natural gas is set at 180 euros/megawatt hour, which is far lower than the price proposed by the EU last month. Natural gas prices fell, zinc smelting costs fell, zinc smelting output is expected to increase, and European zinc supply is expected to increase.

On the demand side, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal while reducing the rate increase. The Federal Reserve decided to continue to raise interest rates. The optimistic expectation of the market was frustrated, and the pessimism of economic recession spread. The domestic prevention and control measures have changed, the macroeconomic recovery has not been as expected, the domestic factory output has slowed down, retail sales continue to decline, the supply and demand of zinc market have not met expectations, the impact of the epidemic has affected part of the employment, most enterprises plan to leave in advance, the off-season effect may be greater than in previous years, and the downward pressure on zinc prices has increased.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business society, the cold wave is coming, industrial power consumption is decreasing, and zinc smelting output is decreasing. With the reduction of zinc smelting costs in Europe, the supply of zinc is picking up. In terms of demand, the Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates, and the market pessimism is spreading. However, the domestic market recovery is not as expected, and the demand for zinc is poor. In general, the expected increase in supply and demand of zinc market was less than expected, and the zinc price fell in shock. In the future, the supply of zinc is expected to recover, and the zinc price is expected to rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 29, the average price of domestic LNG was 6060 yuan/ton, which was higher than the average price of 4900 yuan/ton on December 1. The domestic LNG price rose by 23.67% this month.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from October 3, 2022 to December 25, 2022 that the domestic LNG rose a lot in December, and the maximum decline in December was 23.39% in the week of December 5

 
In December, domestic LNG rose first and then fell. The cost of the liquid plant increased due to the rise of feed gas price. In the first half of December, the price of domestic LNG rose sharply, breaking 8000 yuan/ton. In the second half of December, domestic LNG prices began to decline at a high level. Downstream demand support is weak, and the market continues to fall. Market supply exceeded demand, the bearish sentiment on the floor increased, and the high liquid price began to continue to cover the decline.

Mainstream market

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on December 29:

Region/ offer

Inner Mongolia/ 6000-6300

Shaanxi/ 5700-6400

Shanxi region/ 5900-6450

Ningxia/ 6200-6350

Henan/ 6500-7000

Sichuan/ 5900-6600

Shandong/ 6750-7100

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that the domestic LNG market is weak in recent days, with obvious oversupply in the market and lack of good support on the market. Tomorrow’s raw gas auction will increase the wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the market price of LNG will decline mainly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese in East China will drop sharply from January 1 to December 26, 2022, with the average price at the beginning of the year at 39500 yuan/ton and the average price at the end of the year at 17400 yuan/ton, down 55.95%. Looking at the 2022 trend chart of the East China market of electrolytic manganese, it can be found that the market is basically divided into three stages: the first stage is a period of high level consolidation, the second stage is a period of rapid decline, and the third stage is a period of post drop shock.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, in 2022, the labor force will rise in seven months and fall in four months, with the largest drop in March, down 51.59; The biggest increase was in January, up 6.01%.

The first stage of high level shock consolidation (January 1 to February 28)

At the beginning of the year, the trend of electrolytic manganese market continued to rise for 21 years. In the 22nd year, electrolytic manganese manufacturers began to implement their three-month production suspension and upgrading plan. Most of the manufacturers were out of production. The market news said that the overall production suspension plan in the 22nd year would actually reach about half a year. It was expected that the market supply would decrease in the future. The manufacturers had limited supplies, few quotations, strong reluctance to sell, and rising prices. In the middle of the year, the market was waiting for the guidance of the steel bidding. The overall wait-and-see mood was strong, and the market price was temporarily stable. After the last ten days of January, as the holiday is approaching, the market negotiation atmosphere is relatively light, the downstream purchase intention is low, most manufacturers have entered the holiday, the market demand starts to decline, and the price drops slightly. After the Spring Festival, most manufacturers are still in the holiday season, and there are few market quotations. Due to the shortage of goods in the market when manufacturers stop production, the overall turnover is limited. The whole February was significantly affected by the holiday, and the trend was volatile. At the end of February, the market mainstream price was 39000-39500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand sides had a strong game psychology.

Phase II rapid decline period (March 1 to May 31)

The trend of this stage is highly anticipated. In addition to the supply and demand factors, we also need to understand another major factor that affects the price of electrolytic manganese – electricity. The main steps of the production process of electrolytic manganese metal are “leaching — purification — electrolysis”. Manganese carbonate powder is used to react with inorganic acid to prepare a manganese salt solution. Ammonium salt is added as a buffer. Iron is removed by adding an oxidant for oxidation and neutralization. Sulfide is added to remove heavy metals. After “sedimentation filtration deep purification filtration”, pure manganese sulfate solution is obtained. Finally, it enters the electrolytic cell for electrolysis to produce metal manganese. From the above steps, it can be seen that in addition to the impact of raw materials, electric power is also an important factor affecting the production of electrolytic manganese. The electrolytic manganese manufacturers in China are mainly concentrated in Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangzhou, Hunan and other places. In addition to Ningxia, other areas are mainly water conservancy and power generation. The local water conservancy and power generation are greatly affected by the flood season and dry season, so the annual April October is usually the golden period for the production of electrolytic manganese. Other times are subject to the power situation, and the overall operating rate of manufacturers is low.

Since the beginning of March, the electrolytic manganese market has entered a month long downward channel. Since the introduction of Korean pricing at the end of February, it is far lower than the market expectation, which aggravates the bearish mentality of the market. After the introduction of the domestic steel bidding price, due to the unsatisfactory price, the market mentality was affected again, the spot market price continued to decline, and the factory price in the mainstream regions was significantly reduced, and some low price deals appeared in the market. At present, the main application of electrolytic manganese in the downstream is 200 series stainless steel. After experiencing the high price of electrolytic manganese caused by the joint production reduction and goods control of the electrolytic manganese alliance, the downstream receiving capacity has been significantly reduced. Most downstream manufacturers use waste stainless steel and low-carbon ferromanganese to replace them. As a result of this lack of demand, the price of steel bidding has been lowered again and again.

With the coming of April, the city is about to enter the peak season of electrolytic manganese production. At that time, the market expected that most manufacturers would have loose supply after returning to production in April. Therefore, the market saw a strong atmosphere and prices fell all the way down. Low price goods are frequently available, market confidence is affected, and transactions are limited under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. In late March, as the public health events in many places in China affected the transportation, the transportation of manganese products was blocked, which was once again bad for the market. There are many kinds of news in the market, the overall wait-and-see mood is heavy, the supply and demand game mentality is heavy, and the bearish mood prevails. Without the support of good news, the price further declines. Near the end of the month, after experiencing a long-term decline, the electrolytic manganese market entered a short period of stability. As the price became stable, market inquiries increased to a certain extent, but the mentality of buying up rather than buying down dominated the market transaction, which was not ideal. At the end of the month, the market had a steel bidding price of 17200 yuan/ton, which affected the market mentality again, and the market was weak.

The third stage is the post fall shock period (June 1 to December 26, 2022)

After entering June, after experiencing the previous sharp drop, the price has been at a relatively low level, the decline has basically slowed down, the overall price has fluctuated widely, the market atmosphere is still the overall weak consolidation, the downstream continues to maintain just need procurement, but the overall transaction situation is still normal, and the market trading is relatively cold. After entering winter, as the downstream steel plants enter the winter storage season, there is a certain reserve demand for electrolytic manganese. The market demand is large, and the market is expected to improve to a certain extent. The market price is slightly warmer, driving a wave of slightly warmer market at the end of the year.

In the future, the business community believes that, in general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. There is no actual increase in steel plant bidding, and the downstream demand is average. Although there is a certain amount of winter storage, it is difficult to provide long-term support to the market. In December, the overall supply was loose, which significantly affected the electrolytic manganese market. At present, the mainstream market quotation has dropped to 15800-16000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the overall electrolytic manganese market will be weak under the pattern of loose supply and weak demand in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of silicon manganese (specification: FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia was 7862 yuan/ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year, and 7275 yuan/ton (tax included) on December 21, down 7.47%. On the whole, it was between 7000-8500 yuan/ton of cash delivered in the year, and remained at a high level of more than 8000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it experienced a significant decline from 8000 yuan/ton to about 7200 yuan/ton in July. In the third and fourth quarters, the price fluctuated slightly, around 70,000-7300 yuan/ton. The lowest point of the year was 6970 yuan/ton in August, and the highest point was 8537 yuan/ton in March. Future outlook: Inner Mongolia’s silicon manganese alloy enterprises will struggle to maintain in 2022, and the profit margin for the whole year will be low. Since December, the epidemic prevention and control policy has been continuously optimized, the travel code has been cancelled, the number of people infected has increased, and some silicon manganese alloy manufacturers across the country are facing the shortage of workers due to short-term diagnosis, and the difficulty in delivering iron. However, the market liquidity brought by the optimization of epidemic control is visible to the naked eye, and the industrial structure has been continuously optimized, the external environment has gradually improved, and the macro favorable policies have continued to work. In a comprehensive way, The future of silicon manganese market is expected in 2023.

Relevant data:

According to customs data, in October 2022, the total import of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 5000.026 tons, up 149.95% month on month and 312.38% year on week; In October 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 20,800.215 tons, down 11.36% month on month and 6.74% year on year (the export volume in October last year was 22,303.59 tons).