According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese in East China will drop sharply from January 1 to December 26, 2022, with the average price at the beginning of the year at 39500 yuan/ton and the average price at the end of the year at 17400 yuan/ton, down 55.95%. Looking at the 2022 trend chart of the East China market of electrolytic manganese, it can be found that the market is basically divided into three stages: the first stage is a period of high level consolidation, the second stage is a period of rapid decline, and the third stage is a period of post drop shock.
The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, in 2022, the labor force will rise in seven months and fall in four months, with the largest drop in March, down 51.59; The biggest increase was in January, up 6.01%.
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The first stage of high level shock consolidation (January 1 to February 28)
At the beginning of the year, the trend of electrolytic manganese market continued to rise for 21 years. In the 22nd year, electrolytic manganese manufacturers began to implement their three-month production suspension and upgrading plan. Most of the manufacturers were out of production. The market news said that the overall production suspension plan in the 22nd year would actually reach about half a year. It was expected that the market supply would decrease in the future. The manufacturers had limited supplies, few quotations, strong reluctance to sell, and rising prices. In the middle of the year, the market was waiting for the guidance of the steel bidding. The overall wait-and-see mood was strong, and the market price was temporarily stable. After the last ten days of January, as the holiday is approaching, the market negotiation atmosphere is relatively light, the downstream purchase intention is low, most manufacturers have entered the holiday, the market demand starts to decline, and the price drops slightly. After the Spring Festival, most manufacturers are still in the holiday season, and there are few market quotations. Due to the shortage of goods in the market when manufacturers stop production, the overall turnover is limited. The whole February was significantly affected by the holiday, and the trend was volatile. At the end of February, the market mainstream price was 39000-39500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand sides had a strong game psychology.
Phase II rapid decline period (March 1 to May 31)
The trend of this stage is highly anticipated. In addition to the supply and demand factors, we also need to understand another major factor that affects the price of electrolytic manganese – electricity. The main steps of the production process of electrolytic manganese metal are “leaching — purification — electrolysis”. Manganese carbonate powder is used to react with inorganic acid to prepare a manganese salt solution. Ammonium salt is added as a buffer. Iron is removed by adding an oxidant for oxidation and neutralization. Sulfide is added to remove heavy metals. After “sedimentation filtration deep purification filtration”, pure manganese sulfate solution is obtained. Finally, it enters the electrolytic cell for electrolysis to produce metal manganese. From the above steps, it can be seen that in addition to the impact of raw materials, electric power is also an important factor affecting the production of electrolytic manganese. The electrolytic manganese manufacturers in China are mainly concentrated in Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangzhou, Hunan and other places. In addition to Ningxia, other areas are mainly water conservancy and power generation. The local water conservancy and power generation are greatly affected by the flood season and dry season, so the annual April October is usually the golden period for the production of electrolytic manganese. Other times are subject to the power situation, and the overall operating rate of manufacturers is low.
Since the beginning of March, the electrolytic manganese market has entered a month long downward channel. Since the introduction of Korean pricing at the end of February, it is far lower than the market expectation, which aggravates the bearish mentality of the market. After the introduction of the domestic steel bidding price, due to the unsatisfactory price, the market mentality was affected again, the spot market price continued to decline, and the factory price in the mainstream regions was significantly reduced, and some low price deals appeared in the market. At present, the main application of electrolytic manganese in the downstream is 200 series stainless steel. After experiencing the high price of electrolytic manganese caused by the joint production reduction and goods control of the electrolytic manganese alliance, the downstream receiving capacity has been significantly reduced. Most downstream manufacturers use waste stainless steel and low-carbon ferromanganese to replace them. As a result of this lack of demand, the price of steel bidding has been lowered again and again.
With the coming of April, the city is about to enter the peak season of electrolytic manganese production. At that time, the market expected that most manufacturers would have loose supply after returning to production in April. Therefore, the market saw a strong atmosphere and prices fell all the way down. Low price goods are frequently available, market confidence is affected, and transactions are limited under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. In late March, as the public health events in many places in China affected the transportation, the transportation of manganese products was blocked, which was once again bad for the market. There are many kinds of news in the market, the overall wait-and-see mood is heavy, the supply and demand game mentality is heavy, and the bearish mood prevails. Without the support of good news, the price further declines. Near the end of the month, after experiencing a long-term decline, the electrolytic manganese market entered a short period of stability. As the price became stable, market inquiries increased to a certain extent, but the mentality of buying up rather than buying down dominated the market transaction, which was not ideal. At the end of the month, the market had a steel bidding price of 17200 yuan/ton, which affected the market mentality again, and the market was weak.
The third stage is the post fall shock period (June 1 to December 26, 2022)
After entering June, after experiencing the previous sharp drop, the price has been at a relatively low level, the decline has basically slowed down, the overall price has fluctuated widely, the market atmosphere is still the overall weak consolidation, the downstream continues to maintain just need procurement, but the overall transaction situation is still normal, and the market trading is relatively cold. After entering winter, as the downstream steel plants enter the winter storage season, there is a certain reserve demand for electrolytic manganese. The market demand is large, and the market is expected to improve to a certain extent. The market price is slightly warmer, driving a wave of slightly warmer market at the end of the year.
In the future, the business community believes that, in general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. There is no actual increase in steel plant bidding, and the downstream demand is average. Although there is a certain amount of winter storage, it is difficult to provide long-term support to the market. In December, the overall supply was loose, which significantly affected the electrolytic manganese market. At present, the mainstream market quotation has dropped to 15800-16000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the overall electrolytic manganese market will be weak under the pattern of loose supply and weak demand in the future.
According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of silicon manganese (specification: FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia was 7862 yuan/ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year, and 7275 yuan/ton (tax included) on December 21, down 7.47%. On the whole, it was between 7000-8500 yuan/ton of cash delivered in the year, and remained at a high level of more than 8000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it experienced a significant decline from 8000 yuan/ton to about 7200 yuan/ton in July. In the third and fourth quarters, the price fluctuated slightly, around 70,000-7300 yuan/ton. The lowest point of the year was 6970 yuan/ton in August, and the highest point was 8537 yuan/ton in March. Future outlook: Inner Mongolia’s silicon manganese alloy enterprises will struggle to maintain in 2022, and the profit margin for the whole year will be low. Since December, the epidemic prevention and control policy has been continuously optimized, the travel code has been cancelled, the number of people infected has increased, and some silicon manganese alloy manufacturers across the country are facing the shortage of workers due to short-term diagnosis, and the difficulty in delivering iron. However, the market liquidity brought by the optimization of epidemic control is visible to the naked eye, and the industrial structure has been continuously optimized, the external environment has gradually improved, and the macro favorable policies have continued to work. In a comprehensive way, The future of silicon manganese market is expected in 2023.
Relevant data:
According to customs data, in October 2022, the total import of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 5000.026 tons, up 149.95% month on month and 312.38% year on week; In October 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 20,800.215 tons, down 11.36% month on month and 6.74% year on year (the export volume in October last year was 22,303.59 tons).
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