According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from March 17 to March 24, 2025. On March 24th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6000 yuan/ton, and on March 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15%. This week, the crude oil trend first fell and then rose, with overall fluctuations and an upward trend. The demand for disproportionation and oil blending industries in Shandong region during the week is good, with overall low inventory and stable refinery quotations. The inventory in the East China region is still at a relatively high level, and market sentiment is weak. Overall, the toluene market has shown a stable to weak performance this week.

Cost aspect: Crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards during this cycle. As of the 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.28 per barrel, an increase of $1.73 per barrel compared to the same period last week. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.61 per barrel, up $1.73 per barrel from the same period last week.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of March 24th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6050-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On March 24th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7600 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from March 17th. As of March 21, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $817-819/ton FOB Korea and $842-844/ton CFR China, up $5/ton from March 14.

Market forecast: The crude oil market will rise slightly over the weekend, providing some positive support for the market. In terms of supply, the recent arrival situation in East and South China has been good, with overall high port inventory, which has a certain negative impact on the toluene market. In terms of demand, the demand performance in Shandong region is still acceptable, and prices within the region are relatively stable. The markets in East and South China maintain a high demand for replenishment, with average sales and an overall bearish demand side. Overall, the supply of toluene market has been relatively loose recently, and the spot market is slightly under pressure. It is expected that the market will mainly operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 21, the price of lead 1 # was 17385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% from the lead price of 17470 yuan/ton on March 17.

This week’s market analysis

This week, lead prices have been running at a high level, with a slight downward adjustment within the range.

Raw material end

Domestic mines have entered a seasonal maintenance period, resulting in a decline in production and a relatively tight supply of mineral resources. Although the maintenance of the primary lead refinery has ended and imported crude lead has arrived at the port, the situation of tight mineral resources has not been fundamentally alleviated, and there is no obvious sign of a decline in processing fees (TC). In terms of waste batteries, recycled lead refineries continue to operate at a high level, and the demand for waste batteries remains strong. Due to the bullish market sentiment, holders of goods are reluctant to sell, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials to refineries, and prices showing a trend of easy rise but difficult fall. The supporting effect of raw materials on lead prices remains strong.

Supply and demand side

The primary lead refinery continues to focus on restoring and increasing production, with slight fluctuations in operating rates; In the field of recycled lead, on the one hand, the supply of waste batteries is slightly tight, and on the other hand, many northern regions have issued heavy pollution weather warnings one after another this week. Environmental protection production restrictions have been implemented in some areas, and recycled lead refineries have actively responded by reducing production and stopping operations, resulting in a decline in operating rates. With the lifting of environmental warnings this week, it is expected that the operating rate will steadily increase, but the specific recovery situation still needs to be closely monitored based on the arrival of raw materials.

The terminal demand is average, and the traditional off-season has decreased. Dealers are more cautious in purchasing, especially electric bicycle battery dealers who actively maintain low inventory levels.

comprehensive analysis

The cost side is firmly supported, and lead prices continue to hover at high levels. However, spot market trading is slightly sluggish, and procurement demand is mostly concentrated in recycled lead. The strong willingness of native lead holders to deliver has led to a decrease in the supply of goods in the market. It is expected that lead prices will remain high and fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 18th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6760 yuan/ton, which is 0.60% higher than the reference average price of 6720 yuan/ton on March 11th.

2、 Market analysis

Market Aspects

The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have risen this week. As of March 18th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6600-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The yellow phosphorus market has strengthened this week, with prices continuing to rise. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and manufacturers have raised prices, resulting in low market inventory. Downstream urgent replenishment requires cautious procurement. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus price will remain strong in the short term.

Supply and demand side

The supply and demand balance in the phosphoric acid market this week. At present, the supply of phosphoric acid in the market is stable, with stable shipments on the demand side and downstream procurement based on demand. Expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has risen recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. Some phosphoric acid companies have raised prices, but caution remains. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will remain stable with a moderate upward trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has further declined this week. On March 10th, the market price of aniline was 8962 yuan/ton, and on March 14th it was 8762 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% during the period and 18.01% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market has been dragged down by costs, resulting in a significant drop in prices. During the week, mainstream manufacturers lowered their prices by 200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of aniline dropped to 8700-8850 yuan/ton. The overall shipment of aniline factories was not smooth, inventory accumulated, and there was insufficient confidence in the market. After the price fell, they digested and organized the operation, and the increase in trading volume was limited.

On the cost side: This week, there has been a wide decline, and the operating rate of pure benzene has rebounded. The inventory of pure benzene in ports continues to decrease. Considering the decrease in the amount of pure benzene arriving at ports in mid to early March, the decrease in port inventory may continue. Downstream caprolactam production is at a high level, and the demand for pure benzene is relatively strong. Currently, cost support is still the main factor.

3、 Future expectations

The current price of pure benzene raw material is weak, and the purchasing and sales atmosphere of the aniline market is not good. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 22600 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 23000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.77% and a year-on-year increase of 7.48%. On March 13th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 80.00, an increase of 0.7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 67.37% from the highest point of 245.18 points during the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 35.78% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been rising, with the price of bromine in Shandong region increasing. The mainstream market price is around 22000-23000 yuan/ton. Bromine inventory is tight, downstream flame retardant manufacturers have active demand, imported bromine has been delayed, and prices have risen. It is expected that prices will remain stable with some increase in the short term. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 2534.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2601 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has increased by 2.63%, which is 151.71% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to rise recently, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to rise. Bromine supply is tight, and downstream demand is good, but imported bromine replenishment is slow. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices may continue to rise in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from March 3 to March 10, 2025. On March 3rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 6510 yuan/ton, and on March 10th, the benchmark price of toluene was 64000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69%. This week, the trend of crude oil is weak, and the toluene market is dragged down, resulting in a weak overall market atmosphere. On the supply side, some facilities in Shandong will undergo maintenance this week, while port inventory in East China is relatively high, and overall inventory in the South China market is also high. In terms of demand, Shandong region maintains rigid procurement, while trading in the East China market is light and demand in the South China market is weak. Overall, the demand side is weak.

Cost wise: The crude oil price trend has been weak during this period. As of March 7th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.04 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.36 per barrel. The downward trend in crude oil prices during this cycle is due to the easing of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine. The United States is considering easing sanctions on Russia, which has reduced potential supply risks. In addition, oil producing countries plan to increase production slightly from April, which has affected the international crude oil market and led to a decline; On the other hand, the imposition of tariffs by the United States has intensified market concerns and may drag down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a decline in the crude oil market.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of March 10th, East China Company quoted 6350 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6400 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6450 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On March 10th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7600 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units is stable, and sales are normal. As of March 7th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were $808-810/ton FOB Korea and $833-835/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The recent performance of the crude oil market is weak, providing insufficient support for the market. In terms of supply, the Shandong region has recently experienced weak supply, with high inventory in ports in East and South China, resulting in a bearish supply situation. The overall downstream procurement intention on the demand side is biased towards rigid demand, and there is insufficient follow-up on downstream overall demand, resulting in low procurement intention. Overall, the short-term trend of the toluene market remains weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 22200 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 22600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.8% and a 3.2% increase compared to the same period last year. On March 6th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 79.30, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.66% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 34.59% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been rising, with the price of bromine in Shandong region increasing. The mainstream market price is around 22000-23000 yuan/ton. Bromine inventory is tight, downstream flame retardant manufacturers have active demand, imported bromine has been delayed, and prices have risen. It is expected that prices will remain stable with some increase in the short term. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained firm, with an average market price of 2207.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2387.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has increased by 8.14%, which is 103.09% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to rise recently, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to rise. Bromine supply is tight, and downstream demand is good, but imported bromine replenishment is slow. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices may continue to rise in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly increased, and the mainstream price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in the East China market is currently 11500-11600 yuan/ton. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 12016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% compared to the beginning of this month (11933.33 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The market situation has remained stable this week, with enterprises actively starting production, and some regions experiencing tight supply of goods.

Raw material side: The price trend of raw material fluorite has risen this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite is tight, and the market situation is rising, which strongly supports the cost of hydrofluoric acid. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3731.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.95% compared to the beginning of this month (3660.00 yuan/ton).

Recently, the price trend of raw material sulfuric acid in the market has risen, providing favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 5th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 547.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.49% compared to the beginning of this month (470.00 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market is rising, coupled with policy encouragement in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. The prices in the foreign trade market have increased, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand, which supports the hydrofluoric acid market.

Market forecast: The recent rise in raw material prices has driven the hydrofluoric acid market to a stronger trend. It is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to operate steadily and strongly in the future, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

The price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell in February

In February 2025, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4681.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64% from the average price of 4711.67 yuan/ton on February 1st.

On the morning of February 28, 2024, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port showed a weak downward trend. In the morning session, the basis price for next week’s contract will be+38 to+40, and in the afternoon, the price will rise to+36 to+38; After the closing, the contract basis quotation for March will be+55 to+58, and for April, the contract basis quotation will be+72 to+76.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of February 27th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 541 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 557 US dollars/ton.

The accumulated inventory at the port in February is significant

On February 27, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 711900 tons, a decrease of 13700 tons from the total inventory of 725600 tons on February 20; The total inventory on January 27th was 511200 tons, an increase of 214400 tons.

Ethylene glycol prices are expected to stop falling and rebound in March

At present, the market sentiment is relatively cautious, mainly due to the fact that the current port has started accumulating relatively high inventory from a low inventory state. The market’s expectations of reduced supply and demand recovery have been weakened by actual data.

From late February, the trend of continuous accumulation of port inventory has been interrupted. Since February, multiple sets of ethylene glycol units in the United States have been undergoing centralized maintenance, and the ethylene glycol unit of Petronas Malaysia has been postponed to restart in April May. There is an expectation of a reduction in overseas ethylene glycol supply, and the number of imported ethylene glycol shipments may decrease in March. Based on the delivery cycle, there may be relatively more imported cargo arriving at domestic ports in early and late March, but the overall quantity may be lower than the same period in the past.

In terms of domestic supply, the maintenance of the domestic ethylene glycol plant in March will gradually be implemented, and the restart time of the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical ethylene glycol plant will be further postponed, resulting in weak ethylene glycol supply in March.

Overall, the ethylene glycol market is expected to gradually improve by March 2025, and the improvement in supply and demand will provide some support for prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.68% compared to the same period last year. On February 27th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.49, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.80% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 29.82% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2011)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and bromine manufacturers are gradually resuming production. But downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 1944.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2104.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has increased by 6.05%, which is 106.31% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are rising. Bromine production is gradually starting, but downstream demand is still mainly based on on-demand procurement. Based on the comprehensive forecast of supply and demand, it is expected that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.