On October 13, the domestic cobalt price fell

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell on October 13. After the sharp rise of cobalt price for three consecutive trading days after the festival, the cobalt price fell on October 13. On October 13, the cobalt price was 394200 yuan / ton, down 1.00% from the cobalt price of 398200 yuan / ton on October 12 of the previous trading day; Compared with the price of 381600 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of cobalt increased by 3.30%. Cobalt prices broke the 400000 mark and were blocked.

The rise of international cobalt price slowed down

According to the trend chart of LME cobalt price, the cobalt price in LME market was stable in October, the high level of international cobalt price was stable in October, the high level support of domestic cobalt market still existed, and the rising power of cobalt price was insufficient.

As can be seen from the trend chart of MB cobalt price, during the national day, the cobalt price in the international market continued to rise. In October, the international cobalt price rose for seven consecutive trading days, and the international cobalt price rose continuously, stimulating the rise of domestic cobalt price; After October 8, the rising trend of MB cobalt price slowed down, the cobalt price was stable on October 11 and 12, the rising trend of international cobalt price was no longer, the rising support of domestic cobalt market was insufficient, and the domestic cobalt price fell slightly.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business society, believes that affected by the continuous rise of international cobalt prices, the domestic cobalt market rose after the festival, and once the domestic cobalt price wanted to break the 400000 yuan mark. However, with the stability of international cobalt prices, the rise of domestic cobalt market lost support, the cobalt price fell slightly, and the cobalt price broke the 40 mark was blocked. In the long run, the demand of new energy vehicle industry is increasing vigorously, the demand of cobalt market is still growing, and the rising power of cobalt market still exists. It is expected that the long-term fluctuation and rise of cobalt price in the future will be dominated by the stability of cobalt price in the short term.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (October 12): 21000 yuan / ton

On October 12, the market price of epichlorohydrin was mainly stable, up 0.32% compared with the previous trading day, 32.35% compared with the price on September 12, and 49.29% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the price of raw material propylene is high, the price of glycerol is running at a high price, and the cost support is relatively strong. Affected by the news of the planned restart of the plant of a large plant in East China, the purchase mentality of the industry is cautious, the inquiry atmosphere is weakened, and the market atmosphere is general.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by stalemate.

Fluctuation trend:

Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, near winter, the demand for fuel is increasing, superimposed with the shortage of natural gas supply, the supply expectation of crude oil market is tight, and the international oil price is high.

Crude oil and external market rose, giving positive support to the mixed xylene market; The prices of related aromatic products continued to rise, the downstream terminal gasoline followed the rise of crude oil, and the price of Sinopec continued to rise, resulting in a strong rise in the mixed xylene market.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 9, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 22600 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 21100 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 1500 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.11%; Compared with September 1 (propylene glycol reference price 17066 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 5533 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.42%.

In September, the domestic propylene glycol market rose sharply. In October, during the National Day holiday, the propylene glycol market performed at a high level and operated stably. On the first day after the holiday, the domestic propylene glycol market opened and rose sharply on the 8th, resulting in tight on-site supply and basically no pressure on inventory. At present, the price of propylene glycol has reached a new high in recent years. Downstream users are more cautious in taking goods and have a strong wait-and-see mood for high prices. However, due to varying degrees of shutdown plans for propylene glycol units in Shandong and Anhui from early October to mid November, the market supply will continue to be tight in the short term. Therefore, although there is no large-scale demand after the festival, the factory has a strong willingness to support prices, Market prices rose broadly. On the 9th, the ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong rose to around 22300-23000 yuan / ton, up 1000-1500 yuan / ton compared with the price before the festival. At present, the average price of propylene glycol in China is 22600 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.11% after the national day.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, during the National Day holiday, the domestic propylene oxide market fell broadly. On the first day after the festival, the propylene oxide market continued to fall. On the 9th, the market price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. At present, the downstream terminals have followed better, and the atmosphere in the venue has warmed up. As of October 9, The average price of propylene oxide production in Shandong is 16666 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (17333 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 667 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.85%.

Future trend analysis

Affected by the shutdown and overhaul of propylene glycol unit in October, the supply in propylene glycol plant will continue to be at a low level. Under the condition of small sales pressure, propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that the supply side can still support the domestic propylene glycol market in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 8): 20000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, on October 8, the phosphoric acid market was generally stable, some were slightly reduced, and the quotation was mostly adjusted according to their own inventory status. On the first day after the festival, there were not many market quotation enterprises, but the raw material yellow phosphorus was temporarily stable, many closed offers were not reported, and there was a certain replenishment demand in the downstream, so the supporting phosphoric acid price was still high.

It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid may be expected to callback.

In September, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the domestic supply of chloroform was tight and the market price rose sharply. In the middle of the month, the market speculation mentality was strong, and the market price of chloroform rose sharply to around 5000 yuan / ton. Later, with the follow-up of downstream demand and the end of the market speculation mentality, the market price of chloroform gradually returned to around 4100 ~ 4300 yuan / ton. Overall, due to tight supply, the price at the end of the month still increased by about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of the month.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of chloroform in Shandong was 3150 yuan / ton at the beginning of September and 4187 yuan / ton at the end of September, an increase of 32.94% compared with the beginning of the month.

The price of raw methanol rose and the cost side was supported. According to the business agency, as of September 30, the price of methanol was 3605 yuan / ton, up 37.86% from 2615 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong is about 1600 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the chloroform analyst of business society believes that the “double control” policy will continue to be implemented in the short term, the start-up of methane chloride plant will remain low, and the supply of chloroform will remain relatively tight. However, affected by weak demand, the profit giving sales price of enterprises will return to some extent; Overall, the price of chloroform will remain around 4000 yuan / ton in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene showed a volatile upward trend in the first half of September, rising from 7590 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (September 1) to the highest price of 8480 yuan / ton on September 16; In the second half of the month, the shock fell to 7760 yuan / ton on September 26, and rebounded slightly to 7880 yuan / ton at the end of the month. On September 1, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7590 yuan / ton), and on September 30, the price was 7650-8200 yuan / ton (average price 7880 yuan / ton), an increase of 3.82% this month, an increase of 133.14% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest price in the month was 1100 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

The first half of September: affected by the public health incident, the arrival cargo of East China port was delayed, the deliverable pure benzene was insufficient, the port inventory decreased sharply, the spot supply in East China was tight, and the market speculation was strong. Pure benzene drives styrene, and styrene boosts pure benzene. In the first half of the month, pure benzene and styrene rose together.

The second half of the month: under the “double control” policy, some provinces and cities issued a notice on strengthening the management of “two high” projects, strengthening the management of high energy consumption and high emission projects, and strictly controlling the approval of new “two high” projects. In case of “dual control” policy in the downstream, the downstream styrene and aniline production capacity in Jiangsu Province has suffered serious losses; In addition, the downstream follow-up to the continuous rise of pure benzene is weakened, the demand for pure benzene has fallen sharply, the market mentality has dropped, and the shipment and inventory are arranged at a reduced price.

The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has been adjusted frequently this month. In the first half of the month, it has been increased for seven consecutive times, with a total increase of 1050-1200 yuan / ton, up to 8600-8700 yuan / ton in the month; In the second half of the month, it was lowered for four consecutive times, reaching 7650-7700 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fluctuated higher in September and prices rose broadly. U.S. crude oil inventories have declined continuously, the recovery of oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf affected by the hurricane is slow, and the epidemic has eased, the market is worried that crude oil supply may be tight. As of September 29, Brent rose $5.65 / barrel, or 7.74%; WTI rose US $6.33/barrel, or 9.24%.

In terms of external market, as of September 29, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $951 / ton, down US $16 / ton or 1.65% from August 31; The reference price of pure benzene imported from East China was US $987.5/t, down US $7.5/t or 0.75% from August 31.

Downstream, styrene: styrene fluctuated up and down this month, which was basically consistent with the trend of pure benzene. On September 1, the production price in Shandong was 8787.5 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the price was 9170 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.35%, an increase of 68.62% over the same period last year.

Aniline: the price of aniline rebounded after falling this month, and then fell again. On September 1, the price in Shandong was 10700-10900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11100-11200 yuan / ton; On September 30, the price in Shandong was 11100-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.76% over the beginning of the month and 110.69% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the tight supply of crude oil is expected to remain unchanged, the global epidemic has eased, and the demand is expected to be better in the fourth quarter. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Trends of pure benzene plant in October: Kenli petrochemical plant is expected to restart in mid October. CNOOC shell plans to overhaul in October and Guangzhou Petrochemical plans to shut down for overhaul in October 11. Downstream shutdown devices have been restarted one after another, and the demand for pure benzene has rebounded, which may be a good support for the price. Continue to pay attention to the dynamic market of downstream, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external disk on the price of pure benzene.

In September 2021, the phosphorus chemical market ushered in a sharp rise, which can be described as “soaring”, and the prices of related products have reached a new high in ten years! Even in the environment where the prices of more than 100 kinds of commodities in the “golden nine” are rising, the “edge” of phosphorus chemical products can not be covered up. The gratifying market is by no means achieved overnight. As early as may this year, the phosphorus chemical industry began to “warm up” the rise. In addition, the boost of recent policies has stimulated an uncontrollable rise, making the phosphorus chemical industry index break new highs repeatedly.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of September 30, the phosphorus chemical index was 2253 points, the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, an increase of 200.80% from the lowest point of 749 points on October 7, 2018. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, 163 commodities rose month on month in September 2021, mainly in the chemical sector (79 in total) and the rubber and plastic sector (18 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were phosphoric acid (161.44%), metallic silicon (139.74%) and yellow phosphorus (108.70%).

According to the list of bulk commodities in September monitored by the business society, yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid “stand out” occupied the first and third place in the increase of the plate. Among them, some manufacturers of yellow phosphorus prices began to close their offer after mid month, and the actual trading was higher. As follows:

The yellow phosphorus market was booming in September, with a half month increase of more than 100%

In September, under the influence of environmental protection inspector and “double control” policy, prices “soared”. During the month, Yunnan development and Reform Commission issued the notice of Yunnan energy conservation leading group office on resolutely doing a good job in the work related to dual control of energy consumption. It is mentioned that the production control of yellow phosphorus industry shall be strengthened to ensure that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production line from September to December 2021 shall not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 (i.e. reduce the output by 90%). Affected by this news, yellow phosphorus enterprises limited voltage load, reduced production capacity and intensified spot tension. The downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price, and the price of yellow phosphorus increased significantly. In mid September, the market quotation of yellow phosphorus was about 60000-65000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 100%. After the middle of the year, the external quotation of most yellow phosphorus enterprises was suspended, and only a few sporadic enterprises made external quotation. Be cautious in downstream procurement and prepare goods slightly.

In September, the phosphoric acid market soared with the “original”, with an increase of nearly 160% in the month

In September, the phosphoric acid market soared, with an increase of nearly 160% in the month, a year-on-year increase of more than 300%, and its value doubled, quickly becoming the leading product in the chemical industry. The main reason for the rise of phosphoric acid in September was that driven by the sharp rise of yellow phosphorus in the upstream, the raw material goods were tight and the price was high, resulting in the forced shutdown and production reduction of phosphoric acid manufacturers, the tightening of market supply, the shortage of goods, and the continuous rise of supporting prices, breaking through the 20000 yuan mark at one stroke, creating a new height in the past decade, which is extremely eye-catching.

In the first week of September, the phosphoric acid market was dominated by horizontal consolidation, and there was no obvious fluctuation, but some enterprises had planned to increase; In the second week, due to the impact of environmental protection, the start-up of raw material yellow phosphorus was low, and the price rose to 30000 yuan. The cost side promoted the phosphoric acid market to actively follow up, quickly breaking through the 9000 yuan mark, with a sword pointing at 10000 yuan; In the third week, the raw material yellow phosphorus rose to 60000 yuan, the increase of phosphoric acid increased, with an increase of more than 40% within the week, and the number of start-up enterprises decreased, the market supply side was tight, so it was necessary to queue up for delivery; In the fourth week, before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, the market price of phosphoric acid has not stopped rising. Enterprises have few goods and many customers, and the quotation is basically above 20000 yuan. Moreover, with the upgrading of dual control of energy consumption, the speculation atmosphere in the market has become more intense. The market price rises day by day. Until the end of the month, the rise of phosphoric acid market runs through September. At the end of the month, enterprises mostly adjust the price according to inventory, although the increase has narrowed, However, the rise continued, and the actual transactions were mainly negotiation.

In September, domestic phosphorus ore rose strongly, with an increase of more than 10%

In September, the domestic phosphorus ore market generally increased. Although the increase was not as obvious as that of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid, the price was relatively strong. At the beginning of June, due to the tight supply of phosphorus ore in the mine, the price increased. The phosphate ore market in Guizhou and Hubei remained high. In the middle of the month, the phosphorus ore market rose for the second time in the month. Affected by the violent rise in the downstream Yellow Phosphorus and phosphoric acid market prices, the phosphorus ore market was further higher. In addition, during the month, the inventory in the phosphate rock quarry remained low, and the demand for storage and preparation before the downstream Festival performed well. The overall transaction atmosphere of the phosphate rock Market in September was good, and the overall trend showed a strong upward trend.

September this year is destined to be an extraordinary September for the phosphorus chemical industry sector. In the phosphorus chemical industry sector, except that the ammonium phosphate Market has little change and the high-level consolidation operation, phosphoric acid and phosphate rock have followed the rise one after another driven by the sharp rise of yellow phosphorus. Under the background of double control policy, yellow phosphorus enterprises have serious power restriction, reduced production capacity and tight market supply, which is difficult to change significantly in a short time. However, at present, most phosphorus chemical products have risen to a high level, and downstream enterprises are more cautious except that they just need to take goods. Overall, the phosphorus chemical sector may usher in a certain callback in the future, but the high price situation is difficult to change in a short time.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on September 29, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5083 yuan / ton, down 2.49% from the previous day. In the futures market, the main futures (2201) closed at 5108, down 122, or 2.33%.

PTA was in sufficient supply and slightly accumulated inventory, ending the trend of de inventory for 6 consecutive months. At present, many PTA units are planned to be overhauled, and Hengli Petrochemical announced that the contract supply in October is 60%. However, the downstream demand is weakened, the traditional demand for polyester and terminal weaving is not prosperous in the peak season, the loom production in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reduced, and the operating load is reduced to less than 50%. Meanwhile, the international oil price fell slightly on the 28th, weakening the support for PTA cost.

Business analysts believe that the current crude oil is high and the cost support remains, but the PTA market has sufficient supply and insufficient demand. The overall market sentiment has cooled before the National Day holiday. It is expected that the short-term PTA market is weak and mainly sorted out.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price is strong. On September 28, the market price of bromine was 48062.5 yuan / ton, up 58.45% over the same period last year. On September 27, the bromine commodity index was 167.32, an increase of 1.75 points over yesterday, a record high in the cycle, an increase of 183.98% over the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is rising. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 47000-50000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is running at a high level. The output of bromine enterprises in Shandong declined due to the impact of precipitation. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the output is still in short supply. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have started and stopped production recently, but the demand support is OK, the demand for bromine is OK, and the bromine price has been adjusted. Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow, and the output of bromine enterprises is generally low. However, the start-up of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries still supports bromine, and the demand for bromine is acceptable. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will still be high in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.