Price list of magnesium ingots in Shaanxi on the 13th

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, on the 21st, 99.9% of the factory price including tax in mainstream areas was 42000 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from last weekend, and the quotation of factories in main production areas of Shaanxi was reduced by 1500 yuan / ton including tax.

Yesterday’s market was mainly wait-and-see. Compared with yesterday, the price of magnesium fell by 1500 yuan / ton. Last week, foreign customers replenished before the festival. This week, due to the holiday, orders also decreased simultaneously; There are still few domestic spot goods, mainly futures signing, increasing caution in downstream procurement, low willingness to accept high-priced magnesium ingots, insufficient price support at the raw material end, and the market price of metal magnesium is cold and under pressure.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the supply and demand sides are still in a stalemate game, and the short-term coal price has a rational downward trend.

1、 Price data

As of December 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7363.25 yuan / ton, down 1.87% from 7503.25 yuan / ton on December 13. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7500 yuan / ton.

As of December 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7092.50 yuan / ton, down 0.42% from 7122.50 yuan / ton on December 13. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7000-7200 yuan / ton.

On December 19, the naphtha commodity index was 90.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.06% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 115.15% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week, the terminal demand was weak, the market mentality was cautious and the transaction was general.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated this week. OPEC believes that the recovery of crude oil demand is delayed to a certain extent due to the impact of the new variant virus. Second, U.S. oil reserves continued to decline, and U.S. commercial crude oil inventories and refined oil inventories decreased comprehensively. According to the data of the U.S. energy information administration, as of the week of December 10, the U.S. crude oil inventory was 428.86 million barrels, down 4.58 million barrels from the previous week; The total gasoline inventory in the United States was 218.585 million barrels, a decrease of 720000 barrels over the previous week. The slight decrease in crude oil inventory was good for crude oil prices and the long short game in the crude oil market.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene fell this week. The price was 5800.20 yuan / ton on December 10 and 5710.20 yuan / ton on December 17, down 1.55% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell this week. The price was 5840 yuan / ton on December 10 and 5840 yuan / ton on December 17, which was the same as that of last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 50th week of 2021 (12.13-12.17), including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (5.95%), petroleum coke (2.01%) and fuel oil (1.59%). A total of 8 commodities fell month on month, and the top 3 products were liquefied gas (- 3.30%), thermal coal (- 2.42%) and MTBE (- 2.05%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil fluctuates, the cost support of naphtha market is limited, and the downstream reformer is not obviously good. The transaction is general, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may focus on the weak.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the acrylonitrile market rose slightly this week (12.10-12.17). As of December 17, the price of acrylonitrile was 15750 yuan / ton, up 1.07% from 15583 yuan / ton last Friday.

The price of raw propylene fell slightly and remained low, and the cost continued to be weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 17, the domestic propylene price was 7425 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.06% compared with 7505 yuan / ton last Friday.

The downstream acrylic fiber industry started less than 50%, and the demand for acrylonitrile is weak; Nitrile rubber is stable in operation and mainly needs acrylonitrile. However, the acrylonitrile plant has a maintenance plan, the commencement is reduced, the supply side is expected to boost the market, and the market offer is slightly higher. According to the business news agency, the 260000 T / a acrylonitrile installation of Zhejiang Petrochemical started shutdown and maintenance on the 15th, and the second propylene unit of Jilin Petrochemical plans to start shutdown and maintenance in late December.

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts of business society believe that, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene weakens again. In addition, the demand side has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

On December 16, the price of o-benzene was temporarily stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of o-xylene of Sinopec was temporarily stable on December 16. On December 16, the average quotation price of o-xylene was 6300 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the listing price of o-xylene Sinopec on December 15 of the previous trading day. The market of orthobenzene is stable.

Overview of upstream and downstream market

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of mixed xylene rose on December 16, and the price of mixed xylene on December 16 was 5900 yuan / ton, up 2.79% from 5740 yuan / ton on December 7; Compared with December 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of mixed xylene was 5910 yuan / ton, down 0.17%; The price of mixed xylene rebounded from the bottom, the cost of o-xylene increased, the driving force of o-xylene increased, and the downward pressure remained.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride hit the bottom and rebounded in December. The price of phthalic anhydride was 7050 yuan / ton on December 16, up 1.44% from 6950 yuan / ton on December 8; Compared with December 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride was flat at 7050 yuan / ton; The downstream phthalic anhydride market bottomed out and rebounded, the demand for o-xylene recovered, and the downward pressure of o-xylene market weakened.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of o-xylene raw material mixed xylene rebounded recently, the cost of o-xylene rose, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for o-xylene recovered. As the cost of orthobenzene rises and the demand picks up, the downward pressure on the orthobenzene market weakens and the rising power increases. In addition, the price of orthobenzene in the external market rises. It is expected that the price of orthobenzene will be strongly adjusted in the future and the rising power will increase.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 15, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 13966.67 yuan / ton, down 4.34% from last Wednesday (December 8), 11.60% from November 15, and 15.52% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

the near future (12.8-12.15) the market price of propylene oxide fell. On the 8th, the market price of propylene oxide was deadlocked and stable, the price of raw propylene gradually declined, the cost support gradually weakened, the downstream demand was cold, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the factory inventory pressure was small, and the price was mainly supported. With the slow increase of factory inventory, the downstream bearish mood was strong, the purchase enthusiasm was not high, and the focus of negotiation decreased , the market atmosphere was weak. On the 15th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 13350-13500 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on December 14, the reference price of propylene was 7437.17, a decrease of 1.44% compared with December 1 (7545.50).

According to the monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol, as of December 14, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 17616 yuan / ton, Compared with the price on December 9, 2021 (propylene glycol reference price 16800 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 816 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.86%, and compared with the price on December 1 (propylene glycol reference price 17933 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 317 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.77%.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is small, the factory shipment is general, the demand side is slightly insufficient, the downstream is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be dominated by weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 14, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 17625.00 yuan / ton, which maintained a stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers maintained about 17600 yuan / ton. The PMMA price mainly maintained stable operation, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the price range this week was small.

This week, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 17625.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 17600 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last week, the price of PMMA was mainly stable, the overall price change was not obvious, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on December 13, the rubber and plastic index was 780 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 26.42% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 47.73% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that PMMA prices are expected to operate smoothly in the short term with limited fluctuation range. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on December 10 was 127.70, an increase of 0.34 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 10.47% compared with the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and an increase of 51.45% compared with the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of polyaluminium chloride has continued to adjust slightly since December: the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 1st was 2356.25 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 10th was about 2362.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.27%. The recent reduction of raw material costs and the requirements of environmental protection and dual control in many provinces have a certain impact on manufacturers’ production, thus affecting market supply and demand.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price continued to fluctuate slightly from December 1 to 10, similar to the “L” shape: 324 yuan / ton on the 1st and 300 yuan / ton on the 10th, a decrease of 7.41%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride market have fallen slightly, the downstream purchase intention is general, and hydrochloric acid has fluctuated slightly recently.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell in early December. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 17000 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 12th was 14900 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 12.35%. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, the inquiry and transaction were general, and the market was weak and stable. With the return of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was improved, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was not followed up, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the inquiry and transaction were depressed, and the market price fell again; The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is limited, and the market supply is sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term.

As for the future market, the raw material support is insufficient, the downstream demand is general, and the current polyaluminium chloride market fluctuates slightly; Under the policy of environmental protection and regional dual control in winter, the market generally predicts that the production of manufacturers will be limited and the market price will rise in the later stage. At present, the price mainly fluctuates slightly.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of December 10, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4200 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.61% compared with Monday’s price, a decrease of 44.00% compared with November 10, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.39% in a three-month cycle.

The market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid rose this week. Recently, the price of raw materials caustic soda and liquid ammonia has stabilized, the price of sulfuric acid has increased, the price of methanol has decreased, the cost support is general, the price in the early stage has fallen sharply, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement has increased, and the price has rebounded slightly.

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 785.00 on December 9, a decrease of 6.82% compared with December 1 (842.50); For the upstream liquid ammonia, the market of Shandong liquid ammonia stabilized on December 10, and the price changed little near the weekend. Most manufacturers’ quotations maintained yesterday’s price level. The manufacturers had a strong price mentality, and the dealers’ offers were mainly based on the market; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on December 10; For upstream methanol, on December 9, the reference price of methanol was 2637.50, a decrease of 4.78% compared with December 1 (2770.00).

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is relatively limited, the market atmosphere has improved, and the supply and demand support is OK. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate stably and strongly in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price first fell and then rose this week. The quotation first fell from 2498.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2450.00 yuan / ton on December 6, a decrease of 1.92%, and then rose to 2456.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.24%, a year-on-year increase of 35.69%. On the whole, the urea market has twists and turns this week, and there is an upward trend at the weekend. On December 10, the urea commodity index was 114.23, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 20.99% from the highest point of 144.57 points in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 105.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support weakened, downstream demand improved, and urea supply was insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 2700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2410 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2400 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell sharply this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, and the quotation fell from 6383.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4700.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 26.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.53% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell slightly. The quotation fell from 1085.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1083.75 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.12%, a year-on-year increase of 58.62% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell slightly. The quotation fell from 4630.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4410.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 4.75%, up 37.81% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell sharply this week, and the quotation fell from 16126.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 12726.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 21.08%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea decreased significantly, which had a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is advancing slowly, while industrial demand is mainly on the sidelines. The future market of urea price is uncertain, the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, and the production plan is postponed. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. From the perspective of supply: the shutdown and maintenance time of gas head enterprises is delayed, and it is expected to stop one after another in mid December. At present, the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In the middle of December, the domestic urea market may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that although the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have fallen sharply, the cost support is insufficient, and the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, urea enterprises entered the centralized maintenance period in mid December, the supply is tight, and the future urea market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of December 9, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8900 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 5 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 9133 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 233 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.55%.

This week, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a downward trend, and the focus of on-site transactions continued to decline. The poor performance of the downstream demand side of n-propanol has always dragged down the market. Although there is little pressure on the spot of n-propanol in the field, the lack of demand has gradually crushed the confidence of n-propanol operators. This week, starting from the 7th of the week, the holders of n-propanol in Shandong continued to make small profits to ship, reducing the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton, The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8600-8900 yuan / ton. On August 8, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing was also lowered again, with a reduction range of about 200-500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing was around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future. At present, as of December 9, the ex factory price of domestic n-propanol is around 8600-9500 yuan / ton, and the average price is 8900 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.55% during the week. At present, the downstream demand just needs replenishment, the demand side is still generally boosted, and the n-propanol Market is weak.

In terms of upstream ethylene, this week, the external ethylene market fell first and then rose, with an overall increase of 2.11%. On December 8, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $652-670 / T, down US $6 / T. recently, the US ethylene market fell and the demand was general. On December 8, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1361-1370 / T, up US $56 / T, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1286-1294 / T, up US $60 / T. On December 8, Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 1076-1086 US dollars / ton and CFR Southeast Asia quoted 1041-1051 US dollars / ton.

Internationally, international oil prices rose on December 8. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $72.36/barrel, up US $0.31 or 0.4%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $75.82/barrel, up US $0.38 or 0.5%. People are gradually indifferent to the destructive effect of Omicron mutant strain on the economy, and the main tone of market warming remains unchanged for the time being. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell slightly last week, which benefited the oil market.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the supply of n-propanol is still supported. The downstream demand of n-propanol is mainly on demand, and the preparation and replenishment are still more cautious. The analysts of business society n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market mainly focuses on the weak consolidation and operation, and the sharp fluctuation of the market is limited. More attention should be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.