According to the monitoring data of business society, as of February 23, 2022, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 34716 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 31660 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 3056 yuan / ton, or 9.65%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that during the Spring Festival holiday in early February, the domestic silicone DMC market operated smoothly and the on-site trading was relatively quiet. After the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic silicone DMC market as a whole showed a weak trend and fell slightly. On the 7th, a large domestic monomer factory in Shandong lowered the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 31000 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. The price adjustment of the large factory brought some wait-and-see mood to the silicone DMC market after the festival. The downstream demand was mostly purchased on demand, and other factories were mainly large and multi-dimensional and stable prices.

In late February, the domestic silicone DMC market ushered in an upward trend for nearly half a month. Downstream demand has been expanding one after another, and the trading atmosphere on the floor has improved. Since the 14th, the domestic silicone DMC market has opened a continuous rising mode. Shandong large factory has raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 1300 yuan / ton. On the 15th, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of the factory rose to 32300 yuan / ton. On the 16th and 17th, other monomer factories also followed the upward trend, The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC was raised by 300-500 yuan / ton. As of the 17th, the ex factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 32300-32600 yuan / ton. The downstream demand followed up normally, and the overall market situation of organosilicon DMC was stable. Starting from the 21st, under the double support of tight supply and warmer demand in the field, Shandong large factory raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC for three consecutive days. As of the 23rd, the ex factory price of silicone DMC in the factory increased to around 35100 yuan / ton, the phenomenon of plate sealing in the field increased, and the high-end quotation in the field rose to around 36000 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of silicone DMC is good.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, on February 23, the metal silicon (441#) market was relatively strong, and the logic of 441# metal silicon price rise remained unchanged. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market was 21920 yuan / ton, and the price of metal silicon still had the power to rise with the increase of cost. The downstream demand of the demand side is good, especially the silicone and polysilicon are rising all the way. The operating rate of the main production area in the southwest of the supply side decreases seasonally, and the supply is expected to decline. The silicon plant is looking forward to the market. On the whole, the bullish psychology of silicon plants is getting higher and higher, and the price of metal silicon is expected to be stable in the short term.

Silicone DMC market outlook forecast

At present, with the continuous rise of silicone DMC market, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is still preferred, but the actual transaction is becoming more cautious. The silicone DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market is more stable, focusing on the overall operation in the medium term, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of glycol fell on Tuesday. On February 14, the average price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5016 yuan / ton, and on February 21, the average price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 4783 yuan / ton. Glycol prices fell 4.65% on Tuesday.

The price trend of glycol was down on Tuesday. At present, the mainstream inventory is about 58700 tons. Enterprises still focus on digesting inventory. International crude oil prices rose and fell this week. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamics of crude oil market in real time. The operating rate of UPR in the downstream of diethylene glycol is about 9%, up from last week. As of February 21, the domestic market quotation in East China is 4730-4780 yuan / ton.

At present, the support of diethylene glycol raw materials is acceptable, the delivery is good, and the follow-up situation at the demand side is relatively optimistic. The diethylene glycol analyst of business society believes that the current diethylene glycol market is relatively stable. It is expected that the price of diethylene glycol will advance better in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of crude oil market and downstream demand.

This week’s bisphenol a market was mainly down, mainly due to poor demand, and the decline of upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain, with many negative factors. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average offer in East China was 19000 yuan / ton on February 14, and the average market offer fell to 18650 yuan / ton on February 21, with an overall decline of 1.84% during the week.

From the raw material side, the phenol and acetone market showed a downward trend. Among them, the phenol market fell from an average of 11412 yuan / ton to 11012 yuan / ton, down 3.5%. The market offer in East China is 11025 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is also 11025 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 11050 yuan / ton. The acetone market fell from 6075 yuan / ton to 5912 yuan / ton, down 2.67%. The offer in East China was 5700 yuan / ton, that in South China was 5850 yuan / ton, and that around Yanshan and Shandong was 5950-6000 yuan / ton.

The downstream epoxy resin market negotiation was loose and the performance was extremely cold in the week. Among them, the liquid resin negotiation in East China is 28500-29500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of business society, the auction continued to fall this week, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are declining, which is bad for the market; However, the supply side of bisphenol a market is still tight, the factory offer is strong, and the goods holders follow the market. The business society expects the bisphenol a market to maintain stable operation in the short term

The price of orthobenzene remained stable this week

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene was temporarily stable this week. As of February 18, the price of orthobenzene was 7800 yuan / ton, which was the same as 7800 yuan / ton on February 11 last weekend. The rise of crude oil price slowed down, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and adjusted, the rise of adjacent benzene cost slowed down, and the adjacent benzene market was strong and stable for the time being.

The price of raw material mixed xylene fluctuated and rose

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week, up 1.3%. The price rise of mixed xylene slowed down, the cost rise of o-xylene slowed down, and the rising power of o-xylene weakened.

Lower phthalic anhydride prices fall

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week. As of February 18, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8487 yuan / ton, down 0.44% from 8525 yuan / ton on February 11 last weekend. The price of phthalic anhydride fell this week, the demand for phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable, the demand for o-xylene was temporarily stable, and the rising power of o-xylene was weakened.

Outlook

Analysts of orthoxylene data of business society believe that affected by the rise of crude oil price, the price of raw material mixed xylene fluctuated slightly, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, and the positive situation of downstream market weakened. Overall, the cost of o-xylene has risen, the demand is temporarily stable, the driving force of o-xylene rise is weakened, and the price of o-xylene is expected to stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market continued to rise in mid February, and the spot price increased to a certain extent. As of February 17, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 4333.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.84% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

At present, the domestic potash fertilizer market is heating up and its performance is acceptable. In the early stage, the supply of potash fertilizer enterprises based on domestic resource law increased, and the prices of Salt Lake and Zanger potassium chloride were stable, with large quantities in succession, but the market supply was still limited and the supply was tight. Potassium chloride has certain support for Mannheim enterprises. At present, the load position of domestic industry is low, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. The spot supply of potassium sulfate also remains slightly tight. At present, there is a positive impact on the cost side. After the early winter storage, the supply of traders is consumed. In addition, with the recent implementation of domestic contracts, the current on-site trading has warmed up, and the merchant’s mentality is positive.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business agency believes that the domestic potassium sulfate market rose in mid February, and the market of potassium chloride fluctuated at a high level. At present, the cost of domestic potassium sulfate is fairly supported, and the demand side is warmed up due to the impact of winter storage. It is expected that the price of domestic potassium sulfate may continue to rise in the short term.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on February 16 was 5258.33 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of February 14, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 805000 tons, an increase of 52500 tons or 7.02% compared with last Monday, and an increase of 51000 tons or 0.64% compared with last Thursday.

In terms of units, a 600000 ton syngas MEG unit in Xinjiang has been shut down for a short time.

In the afternoon, Meg’s outer plate was weak, and the recent cargo negotiation was $670-675 / ton. On Wednesday morning, the oil price recovered some of the lost ground. Many prediction institutions expect the long-term crude oil to reach more than US $100 / barrel, with strong cost support. Downstream demand is still weak, and polyester production and sales fell today. At present, the cogeneration eg unit turns around, and the ethylene glycol operating rate decreases slightly, but EO / EG is in a state of loss, and the manufacturer’s production is under pressure.

Forecast: demand side drag, weak shock, but at the current cost, there will not be much downward space.

Aluminum price callback on February 14

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 15 was 22696.67 yuan / ton, up 5.11% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 11.42%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 6.37% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.42% recently.

Aluminum price stabilized on the 15th

On the 15th, aluminum prices began to stabilize two days after falling.

The stabilization of aluminum prices today is partly affected by the geopolitical factors of Russia and Ukraine. Affected by the factors of Russian aluminum, the market’s expectation of Russian Aluminum export supply and circulation has deteriorated.

Future forecast

After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

Cobalt prices rose sharply after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply after the festival, and the cobalt market rose. As of February 14, the average price of cobalt was 529700 yuan / ton, up 5.43% from 502400 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. The off-season of new energy vehicles is not light, and the price of cobalt rose sharply after the festival.

Rising international cobalt prices

Time Category specification . minimum price. Rise and fall . The highest price Up and down Company

February 4th . Standard grade cobalt . thirty-four point three . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 4 Alloy grade cobalt . thirty-four point three . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 USD / lb

February 7 Standard grade cobalt thirty-four point three . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 7th . Alloy grade cobalt thirty-four point three . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 8 Standard grade cobalt thirty-four point four . 0.1. thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 8 Alloy grade cobalt thirty-four point four . 0.1. thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 9 Standard grade cobalt thirty-four point four . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 9 Alloy grade cobalt thirty-four point four . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 10 Standard grade cobalt thirty-four point five . 0.1. thirty-five zero point two . USD / lb

February 10 Alloy grade cobalt . 34.5. zero point one . thirty-five zero point two . USD / lb

February 11 Standard grade cobalt . thirty-four point five . 0 thirty-five 0 . USD / lb

February 11 Alloy grade cobalt . thirty-four point five . 0 thirty-five 0 USD / lb

From the MB cobalt price list, it can be seen that after the festival, the LME cobalt price resumed to rise, and the international electrolytic cobalt price rose, which was good for the domestic cobalt Market and increased the rising power of the domestic cobalt market.

New energy vehicles are not light in the off-season

From past experience, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the superposition of manufacturers’ impulse factors in December of the previous year, January is usually the off-season for the sales of new energy vehicles. Moreover, due to the decline of subsidies in 2022, the consumption of new energy vehicles is expected to decline significantly. However, from the perspective of sales this year, the off-season of the new energy vehicle market in January was not light, and new energy brands such as BYD, GAC AIAN and Xiaopeng achieved sales growth in January. BYD, for example, sold 92900 new energy vehicles in January, second only to 93945 in December last year, ranking second in the monthly sales list in history. The sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, the demand of cobalt market increased, and the rise of cobalt price supported greatly.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that the off-season of new energy vehicles is not light, the rising demand of cobalt Market stimulates the sharp rise of domestic cobalt price, and the compound rise of MB cobalt price is good for the domestic cobalt market. In the future, the demand growth of cobalt market exceeded expectations, the support for the rise of cobalt price increased, and the shock rise of cobalt price in the future.

From January 28 to February 11, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased by 8.13% from 5999 yuan / ton last weekend to 6487 yuan / ton this weekend.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

January 11, 7400.,+100

January 14, 7550.,+150

January 19, 7700.,+150

February 7, 8100.,+400

February 11, 7950.,-150

On February 11, 2021, the listing price of pure benzene of Sinopec was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical was 7900 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: on February 10, international crude oil futures prices rose and fell. U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed up slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $89.88/barrel, up US $0.22 or 0.25%. Brent crude oil futures fell slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $91.41/barrel, down US $0.14 or 0.15%. Previous data showed that the US crude oil inventory fell unexpectedly, the demand for refined oil reached a record high, and the demand supported the strengthening of oil prices; But at the same time, crude oil is constrained by Iran’s return to the international market and the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. At present, the market is intertwined and the oil market is anxious.

After the opening of the festival, the price of crude benzene was corrected as a whole. The bidding price increased significantly this week. The mainstream price in Shandong was 6580 ~ 6585 yuan / ton, up 370 yuan / ton from the last bidding price. During the Spring Festival, crude oil rose sharply, driving the price of pure benzene higher. After the festival, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton, and the hydrogenated benzene market rose, boosting the confidence of the industrial chain. And there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival. Under the support of multiple benefits, the bidding price increased significantly this week.

In the future, the downstream demand of fundamentals is OK, but the pure benzene market has a slight correction, coupled with the impact of production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games, the negative factors have increased, and the demand for crude benzene is expected to decrease in the future, which may have room for decline.

From January 28 to February 10, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable. The price was 74500 yuan / ton last weekend and 75000 yuan / ton this weekend, with an increase of 500 yuan / ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

The antimony ingot Market has entered a period of shock consolidation since the end of November. The market has a strong game mentality. Near the end of the year, some businesses have the demand to return funds. Therefore, the price was reduced before the year, the downstream manufacturers entered the holiday earlier, and the overall trading of the market is limited. After the opening of the market after the festival, the downstream did not return to the market for the time being, but the production of mainstream enterprises in Guangxi at the supply side was affected to a certain extent, the market supply was expected to decline, and the price of antimony ingot began to rise slightly. However, the downstream purchase intention is slightly lower, and it is still based on demand, and the overall transaction is limited. Focus on the resumption of production of relevant enterprises in the future.