According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.79%.

Most domestic manufacturers of activated carbon have seen price increases this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9000 to 13000 yuan/ton. Coconut supply is insufficient in most parts of Asia, coupled with demand growth in industrial waste gas treatment, sewage treatment, lithium battery negative electrode materials, and other fields, leading to a surge in demand for environmentally friendly materials in emerging markets.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, is expected to experience multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand’s reduced production of fragrant coconut due to drought and pest infestations, coupled with rising transportation costs, has led to a surge in coconut shell purchase prices, resulting in a yield rate of only 20% -30%.
Prediction: Due to the shortage of raw materials and insufficient production, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on July 15th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced at 7075 yuan/ton. Compared with July 11th (cyclohexanone price reference at 7073 yuan/ton), the price increased by 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong region has narrowly increased in price since the beginning of this week (7.11-7.15). At the beginning of the week, major factories in Shandong have narrowly increased their cyclohexanone shipment prices by 50 yuan per ton, and the overall market is stable with a slight upward trend. As of July 3rd, the reference price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 7000-7250 yuan/ton.

Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: Recently, the pure benzene market on the cost side has fluctuated slightly and risen, providing stronger support for cyclohexanone compared to the previous period. The cyclohexanone market has risen slightly with the increase of raw materials.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply level of the cyclohexanone market is stable, with little change in the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream market of cyclohexanone is mainly dominated by rigid procurement, and the overall performance of supply and demand is relatively calm.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, with good business sentiment and acceptable transmission between supply and demand. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly focus on consolidation and operation, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market is weak and consolidating

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 14th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6800 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.24% compared to the price of 6816.67 yuan/ton on July 7th. This week, the price of ortho benzene has stabilized, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists. The maintenance of phthalic anhydride equipment has increased this week, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has decreased, the supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the downstream plasticizer market has fluctuated and fallen. The operating load of plasticizer enterprise equipment has decreased, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride has weakened. Supply has declined and demand has decreased, resulting in weak consolidation of phthalic anhydride prices this week.
The cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists, and the supply is decreasing
Sinopec’s quotation for ortho benzene is 7000 yuan/ton. The price of industrial naphthalene is fluctuating and stabilizing, while the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists. This week, there has been an increase in the maintenance of phthalic anhydride equipment, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of enterprises and a reduction in the supply of phthalic anhydride. The supply of cost support has decreased, and the support for the rise in phthalic anhydride prices this week has weakened.
Demand side: DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 14th, the DOP price was 8084.17 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.12% compared to the DOP price of 8259.17 yuan/ton on July 7th. This week, DOP production has decreased, and the operating rate of the plasticizer DOP industry has dropped to around 40%. Plasticizer production has also decreased, and plasticizer prices have fluctuated and fallen. The production of plasticizers has decreased, the demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the support for the rise in phthalic anhydride prices has weakened.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of demand, plasticizer companies have seen a decrease in production, a reduction in plasticizer output, and a decrease in demand for phthalic anhydride; In terms of supply, equipment maintenance in phthalic anhydride enterprises has increased, resulting in a decrease in phthalic anhydride supply. In the future, as supply decreases and demand decreases, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will remain weak and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 6th to 11th, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5661 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.08% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.74%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.28%. Cost support has weakened, supply side equipment is about to recover, downstream demand has not changed significantly, and the ethanol market is digesting the increase.

In terms of cost, the overall corn price is still weak, the market atmosphere is weak, and spot prices continue to decline. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is little fluctuation in the production of edible ethanol. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream chemical companies in Shanghai and Zhejiang have seen a slight decrease in delivery prices for essential purchases. Ethanol prices in Shandong region fluctuated narrowly, with some factories experiencing initial increases followed by subsequent increases. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.
Future forecast: There will be equipment recovery on the supply side in the near future to supplement some of the supply gap. There has been no improvement in demand. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that due to the supply-demand game, short-term prices may weaken narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From June 30th to July 7th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 9066.67 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.15% during the cycle. The butadiene market has fluctuated downward this cycle, dragged down by insufficient demand, and the ex factory prices of main refineries have been lowered one after another in the later part of the week. The spot market supply on the supply side has been relatively sufficient recently, and the main production areas are actively exporting. There have been some unsold transactions in the market, and market transactions are slightly weak. As of July 7th, the delivery price in the Shandong market is around 8800-8850 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen this cycle. As of July 4th, the US WTI crude oil futures were closed for the Independence Day holiday, and the September Brent crude oil futures contract settlement price was $68.30 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 8900 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 500 yuan/ton this week.
On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the recent butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining, while the futures market for butadiene rubber has been weak and volatile. The supply price of butadiene rubber is temporarily stable, and there has been a slight adjustment in merchant offers. As of July 4th, the mainstream reports for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11650-12000 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11450-11700 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent crude oil trend has been volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend will mainly return to the impact of supply and demand. From the supply side perspective, refineries in major domestic production areas are actively shipping, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the overall downstream demand tends to be rigid. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that the overall trend of the butadiene market will be weak and volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on July 4th was 1223 yuan/ton, which is 2.13% lower than the average price of 1250 yuan/ton on June 30th.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices continued to decline. This week, there was a slight adjustment in the operating rate of ammonium sulfate enterprises, a decrease in the operating rate of coking enterprises, and an increase in the operating rate of domestic enterprises. At present, there is still support for the export of ammonium sulfate, but the release of demand is limited. Recently, the price of urea has been adjusted and running, and the ammonium sulfate market is mainly observing. Downstream urgent procurement has led to resistance to high prices, resulting in a decline in the transaction price of ammonium sulfate in the market.
market conditions
As of July 4th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1120 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1165-1200 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. At present, the transactions in the ammonium sulfate market are limited, and many are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on July 3rd, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 7187 yuan/ton. Compared with June 29th (reference price of cyclohexanone was 7425 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.20%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province, China, experienced a cold and declining trend. The focus of the cyclohexanone market has been adjusted downwards, and negotiations have shifted downwards, with a reduction of 150-300 yuan/ton. As of July 3rd, the reference price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 7000-7250 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: During the week, the pure benzene market on the cost side fluctuated and fell, providing weaker support for cyclohexanone.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply performance of cyclohexanone in the market is relatively loose, and the supply side provides poor support for the cyclohexanone market. In addition, downstream demand for cyclohexanone is slightly weak, and demand is cautiously continuing to be mainly driven by rigid procurement, resulting in weak overall transmission between supply and demand.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the cyclohexanone market is mainly weak in consolidation and operation, with a light trading atmosphere and a general mentality among industry players. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1823 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.65% from the reference average price of 1892 yuan/ton on June 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
The domestic urea market has been fluctuating after a continuous decline this month. In the first half of this month, the domestic urea market prices were weak and fell. The urea market is oversupplied, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices and a bearish sentiment in the market. In the second half of this month, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated. The supply of urea in the market remains loose, with downstream demand for essential fertilizers being the main focus, and industrial demand maintaining essential replenishment. Market demand still needs to be released.
market conditions
As of June 30th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1770-1850 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1770-1810 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1780-1800 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1890 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from March 31, 2024 to June 23, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle is characterized by ups and downs. The maximum increase in domestic urea in June was 1.66% in the week of June 16th, and the maximum decrease was -2.22% in the week of June 2nd.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been fluctuating slightly in recent days. At present, the urea market is still oversupplied, with insufficient upward momentum and limited new orders from factories. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 23 to 27, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5512 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.63% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.70%. The price of raw corn has risen, and production enterprises have shown a clear willingness to raise prices. They are reluctant to sell at low prices, and ethanol prices have continued to rise. Traders’ shipping prices have also increased synchronously.

In terms of cost, corn prices in the main production areas continue to show a strong trend. Recently, there has been more rainy weather in North China, and the arrival volume of deep processing goods in Shandong has remained low. There are less than 100 vehicles arriving in the morning, and the price of corn for enterprises has generally increased by 10-20 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side, market supply side has declined, Hongzhan Jixian has stopped production, and Zhongke Green has resumed production, but the output is limited. Guangxi COFCO has a shutdown plan but the timing has not been determined. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the demand side, the downstream Baijiu and chemical industry are entering the traditional off-season, the consumer side is expected to reduce slightly, and the downstream chemical industry delivery price will rise. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, favorable costs will continue to support the high operation of ethanol prices. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

Aluminum prices fluctuate horizontally

Aluminum prices remained relatively firm this week (6.23-6.30). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20786.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the market average price of 20303.33 yuan/ton on June 1.
Overview of Macro Factors
1. International geopolitical changes, easing of the situation in the Middle East, diminishing risk aversion, and a shift in capital risk appetite have to some extent suppressed international commodity prices.
Recently, the latest statements from the Federal Reserve and Trump’s related remarks on the Fed have raised expectations of interest rate cuts, and with the help of financial markets, commodities have stopped falling and rebounded.
Fundamental Overview
On the supply side, the operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in output. As of June 26th, the weekly production of mainstream domestic manufacturers remained around 844000 tons.
On the demand side, during the off-season of traditional consumption, the demand for building profiles, home appliances, and other products is relatively weak. Although new energy vehicles can drive some of the demand, the photovoltaic market has experienced a decline in production and overall demand growth is weak. At present, the arrival of goods in consumer areas is generally average, and the inventory of finished products as terminal raw materials is relatively high. The order volume is relatively low, and the processing cost has slightly decreased. Demand has weak support for aluminum prices.
On the cost side, the price of alumina has stopped falling and stabilized, while the cost side of electrolytic aluminum has provided some support for aluminum prices this week.
Low level sideways trend in social inventory: Currently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low and is in a sideways trend this week. As of June 30th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 462000 tons, a decrease of 46000 tons from June 5th.
Future expectations
At present, the market trading logic tends to be macro oriented, and may later shift to fundamentals. With the expectation of a subsequent consumption off-season, the upward space for aluminum prices will narrow.