Author Archives: lubon

In the last ten days of June, the overall butanone market went down (6.15-6.21)

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 21, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 10866 yuan / ton. Compared with June 14 (the ex factory price of butanone was 11766 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.65%.

 

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It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in the late June period (6.15-6.21), the domestic butanone market continued to decline as a whole. Since June 15, due to the insufficient follow-up of downstream demand and the slow transmission of supply and demand, the quotation of butanone plant has been adjusted downward one after another, and the market focus has been constantly downward. In addition, the international crude oil price fell in the early stage, and the market support has been loose. The mentality of the operators has been frustrated, and the traders’ quotations are mostly in line with the market. The trading atmosphere on the floor is quiet. As of the 21st, the reference price of butanone in the domestic market was around 10800-11000 yuan / ton, and the low-end price fell below 11000 yuan. In the six days, the cumulative price fell by 500-800 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 7%. At present, the downstream demand of butanone market is still low, the overall gas buying in the market is general, and the transactions are mostly negotiated.

 

On the upstream side, recently (June 15-June 21), the domestic liquefied gas market as a whole has shown a weak downward movement. According to the monitoring data of the business community, on June 21, the reference price of liquefied gas was 6070 yuan / ton, which was 124.5 yuan / ton lower than that on June 14 (6212.50 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.06%.

 

Future analysis of butanone

 

At present, the butanone market is characterized by light trading and weak market operation. The butanone datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is weak, mainly for consolidation and operation. More attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

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Domestic market dynamics of mixed xylene on June 20

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on June 17:

 

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Qingdao Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8650 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8450 yuan / ton,

 

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8850 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 8650 yuan / ton,

 

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 8900 yuan / ton,

 

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8800 yuan / ton,

 

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8650 yuan / ton.

 

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

 

In terms of crude oil, European and American countries announced interest rate hikes, which intensified the market’s concern about economic slowdown. In addition, Russia hinted that it would increase oil exports, and the high oil price fell back.

 

Today, Sinopec East China mixed xylene decreased by 300 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical mixed xylene decreased by 50 yuan / ton.

 

Crude oil fell by a wide margin, and peripheral news was short; The domestic market demand is poor, and the downstream is generally enthusiastic about purchasing high priced mixed xylene; In addition, Sinopec lowered the price of mixed xylene, and the market fell.

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Trichloromethane market fluctuated slightly (6.10-6.17)

According to the data of business agency, the chloroform market fluctuated slightly this week (6.10-6.17). As of June 17, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 3312 yuan / ton, up 1.15% from 3275 yuan / ton last Friday.

 

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On the one hand, although the load of Luxi methane chloride plant was reduced in the early stage, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plant was still at a high level this week (6.10-6.17), and the supply was still under great pressure. On the other hand, with the arrival of high temperature weather in summer, the demand for air conditioning and refrigerant is slightly higher, and the demand for chloroform is not slightly supported.

 

This week (6.10-6.17), the spot price of methanol rose slightly, supported by the cost side. However, the high price of methanol futures fell back, which had a negative impact on the market mentality. According to the business agency, as of June 17, the spot price of methanol was 2715 yuan / ton, up 2.16% from 2657 yuan / ton on June 10. As of June 17, the closing price of the main contract of methanol futures was 2756 yuan / ton, down 5.32% from the closing price of 2911 yuan / ton last Friday.

 

The downstream refrigerant market of chloroform is running at a high level. With the arrival of high temperature weather, the demand for chloroform is slightly warmer, which has a certain support for chloroform.

 

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business society, Jinling unit began to reduce its load at the weekend. In addition, due to the unexpected impact of Shanghai Petrochemical, the market expects that domestic methane chloride enterprises may have maintenance or load reduction plans, and it is expected that the pressure on domestic supply side may be relieved in the later period. In addition, with the arrival of high temperature weather, the demand for refrigerant will be increased to a certain extent, and the supply and demand side may promote the decline and exploration of chloroform.

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The price of lithium carbonate has risen steadily in the short term

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily this week. On June 16, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 454000 yuan / ton). On June 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 472000 yuan / ton).

 

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By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. At present, the downstream iron lithium market scheduling is growing, so the market is in a de stocking state. In the market, the activity of close relatives has been increasing, the demand for orders has increased, and the recovery of terminal demand has led to the recent increase in lithium carbonate prices. Due to the favorable lithium carbonate market, some small and medium-sized enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell their products and offer higher prices.

 

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide remained stable, the price of upstream spodumene was high, the price of upstream lithium carbonate increased slightly, which boosted the market mentality, increased the market supply, and slightly increased the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry, but it was still wait-and-see, the market atmosphere was ok, and the focus of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market negotiations was temporarily stable.

 

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is running smoothly. At present, the supply of the manufacturer is still tight, and the supply is obviously insufficient. The contract customers are mainly responsible for arranging orders and delivering goods, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the price remains high. The price in the upstream is still high, and the price continues to rise. The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains.

 

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, most downstream material factories are in the state of long-term order procurement, while sporadic small and medium-sized enterprises are mainly in the form of just needed procurement. With the gradual recovery of the market demand side market, it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will continue to rise steadily.

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Ethylene oxide daily review (June 15, 2022)

The price of ethylene oxide is flat today. At present, the ex factory price is 7350 yuan / ton.

 

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In the upstream, the truck driver strike that has caused losses in the supply chain logistics of various industries in South Korea for a week has subsided. However, the operating rate of the steam cracking unit using naphtha as raw material has been reduced from 81% on June 7 to 76% at present. At present, the main downstream PE of ethylene can only reduce the burden to reduce the inventory pressure due to factors such as high factory inventory and compressed profit space, In addition, it still takes time to clear the logistics, and the current market sentiment is still pessimistic. Domestic ethylene price fluctuation is limited, and the industry is cautious in participating in the market. At present, the latest ethylene outer disc price in Northeast Asia is 1010 US dollars / ton, and that in Southeast Asia is 1150 US dollars / ton. Today, Jinshan Lianmao ethylene quoted 8450 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Today, Luxi Chemical ethylene quoted 8250 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

 

The overall atmosphere of downstream monomer negotiation is better than that in the early stage. However, due to the influence of ethylene, it is rumored that EO may have a downward trend. Although it has not been implemented at present, there is still a wait-and-see mentality in the recent monomer market. The manufacturer stimulates the market at a low price, the dealer negotiates the goods at a low price, and the actual price of the landing order is slightly lower. The selling price of hPEG of Linyi Ruihang import and Export Co., Ltd. (Sanjiang monomer) today is 8500 yuan / ton, and the price of hPEG of Maoming Hongfu Chemical Co., Ltd. today is 8750 yuan / ton.

 

Forecast: there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand, the demand side is not strong, the current ethylene oxide supply is still wide, the cost is high, the transmission is blocked, and the short-term rise and fall are limited.

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Diethylene glycol market is running up slightly

According to the data in the bulk list of the business community, as of June 14, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on June 12, 2022 (the average domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5153 yuan / ton), the price increased by 47 yuan / ton, or 0.91%. Compared with the price on June 1, 2022 (the average domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5096 yuan / ton), the price increased by 104 yuan / ton, or 2.03%.

 

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It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that since June, the diethylene glycol market has been running upward as a whole. In this week, two days before the beginning of the week (the 13th and 14th days), the overall diethylene glycol market was slightly closer to the high-end again, and the market price was raised by about 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the delivery of diethylene glycol in the market is relatively stable, which supports the strong operation of the market. As of June 14, the market price of diethylene glycol is around 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the barrel is around 6200-6300 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream is getting stronger, and the overall demand in the downstream has increased in a narrow range. The high and narrow range fluctuation of the international crude oil market has slightly dampened the confidence of the industry. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol field is acceptable, and most transactions are mainly through negotiation.

 

At present, the supply and demand side of diethylene glycol market changes little in the short term. In terms of international crude oil, the market may still be boosted in the short term, and the overall support for diethylene glycol is still relatively stable. The diethylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market is mostly stable, mainly for consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and demand side.

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Domestic market dynamics of mixed xylene on June 13

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on June 10:

 

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Qingdao Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9000 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8800 yuan / ton,

 

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 9050 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 8900 yuan / ton,

 

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 9450 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 9400 yuan / ton,

 

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9200 yuan / ton,

 

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 9050 yuan / ton.

 

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

 

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures ended lower on June 10. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $120.67/barrel, down $0.84 or 0.69%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $122.01/barrel, down US $1.06 or 0.86%.

 

Today, Sinopec South China mixed xylene decreased by 250 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical mixed xylene decreased by 50 yuan / ton.

 

The positive effects of crude oil and external mixed xylene weakened, and the market speculation enthusiasm fell back; Downstream PX demand still exists, and the decline of mixed xylene is limited.

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The policy is good, the inventory is low, and the future market of natural rubber is more favorable

According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on June 10 was 38.82, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 61.18% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (September 1, 2011), and up 42.30% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

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Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since June 2022

 

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a fluctuating trend from June 6 to 10: the mainstream market in the domestic market reported about 13090 yuan / ton on the 6th (Monday), and 13090 yuan / ton on the 10th (Friday). Among them, the highest price point of this week was 13140 yuan / ton on the 9th (Thursday), and the lowest price was 12920 yuan / ton on the 7th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.7% in the week.

 

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022

 

From the macro aspect of industrial analysis, on June 8, the international crude oil futures price continued to rise, with a significant increase. Under the expectation of supply tightening, the oil market continued to heat up, and the rise of crude oil significantly boosted butadiene and synthetic rubber; On June 9, the international crude oil futures fell, the oil price was still running at a high point, and the supply and demand fundamentals did not change much. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth. In the context of the country’s sustained and stable economy, the national leaders required to further open up the main artery and microcirculation of transportation and logistics, strengthen the freight support of key industries, regions and enterprises, and benefit the tire configuration demand of passenger cars.

 

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

 

Supply side: in Southeast Asia and China’s Yunnan production area, except for the impact of rain on the output, the overall rubber cutting is carried out in an orderly manner. The Hainan production area has been partially cut, and the output is very limited. It is said that the full cutting may be carried out in the middle of the year; Recently, the price of local made thick glue in China has continued to decline. Some data show that the decline since June has reached nearly 4000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 20%. Demand side: so far this month, some tire enterprises have stopped work for maintenance, which has affected the industry’s operating rate. The data show that as of the week of May 31, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire production lines closed at 56.1%, and that of semi steel tire production lines closed at 64.9%, with an overall year-on-year increase of +5.7%. With the introduction of policies to stimulate the consumption of passenger cars in various regions, the operating rate of semi steel tires has been significantly better than that of all steel tires, achieving a four week ring and year-on-year increase. The impact of public health incidents is weakening day by day. Under the leadership of the national policy of stabilizing the economy, a number of measures such as bank interest rates, automobile consumption and ensuring the circulation of goods have played a certain role in promoting the demand of the industry. On June 9, the Federation of passenger cars released the latest production and sales data, which showed that 1671000 passenger cars were produced in May, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a month on month increase of 69.5%; The retail sales volume was 1354000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month on month increase of 29.7%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.591 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% and a month on month increase of 67.8%. On the whole, the car market in May was significantly improved compared with April. The market generally believes that the car production and sales situation in June is expected to return to normal. In terms of inventory: statistics show that the inventory of natural rubber general trade warehouse and bonded area in Qingdao has been continuously reduced: on June 5, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 202700 tons year-on-year, down 41.2%; The bonded inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 3300 tons year-on-year, down 4.08%. On the same day, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1048700 tons, a decrease of 119000 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The analysis shows that it is more likely to enter the de stocking cycle again this month or next month.

 

Future forecast: the macro policy will be improved, the consumption stimulating policy will be issued, and the goods circulation conditions will be improved; The output of new rubber is limited, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao continues to be low; After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the local inventory spread rapidly, which was beneficial to the circulation and procurement of natural rubber. Due to the high inventory of finished tires, the tires in the short term were mainly consumed inventory. Driven by the policy, the operating rate of the tire factory was more selective. It is expected that there will be some support in the short-term shock, focusing on the impact of the downstream demand increase and the output of new rubber on the market.

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On June 9, the mainstream market of natural rubber was relatively strong

Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic natural rubber market was strong on June 9, with an increase of about 200 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was about 13140 yuan / ton, up 1.39% compared with the previous trading day and 4.7% year-on-year.

 

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Key points of analysis: on the macro level, the international crude oil futures price continued to rise significantly on June 8. Under the expectation of tight supply, the US demand for gasoline increased unabated. Superimposed on the gradual recovery of China’s demand for oil, the oil market continued to heat up, and the rise of crude oil significantly boosted butadiene and synthetic rubber; In the context of the country’s sustained and stable economy, the national leaders required to further open up the main artery and microcirculation of transportation and logistics, strengthen the freight support of key industries, regions and enterprises, and benefit the tire configuration demand of passenger cars. On the supply side, the rainfall in Thailand is general, and the production in Yunnan Province of China is limited due to heavy rainfall. The production in Hainan Province has been partially cut, and the production is very limited; Recently, the price of local made thick glue in China has continued to decline. Some data show that the decline since June has reached nearly 4000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 20%. In terms of inventory, statistics show that the inventory of natural rubber general trade warehouse and bonded area in Qingdao has been continuously reduced. On the demand side, as of the week of May 31, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire production lines closed at 56.1% and that of semi steel tire production lines closed at 64.9%, with an overall year-on-year increase of +5.7%. With the introduction of policies to stimulate the consumption of passenger cars in various regions, the operating rate of semi steel tires has been significantly better than that of all steel tires, achieving a four week ring and year-on-year increase. In terms of futures, the external market continued to be strong, Shanghai Jiaotong rose in shock, and its positions increased significantly.

 

Future forecast: the macro policy will be improved, the consumption stimulating policy will be issued, and the goods circulation conditions will be improved; The output of new rubber is limited, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao continues to be low; After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the local inventory spread rapidly, which was beneficial to the circulation and procurement of natural rubber. Due to the high inventory of finished tires, the tires in the short term were mainly consumed inventory. Driven by the policy, the operating rate of the tire factory was more selective. It is expected that there will be a slight support in the short-term shock, and the focus will be on the impact of new rubber output on the market.

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On June 8, the sulfur market in East China decreased slightly

Trade name: sulfur

 

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Latest price (June 8):3973.33 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of sulfur in East China today is 0.42% lower than that of yesterday. Some domestic refinery units are still under maintenance. The inventory of enterprises is low, the quotation is high, the downstream sulfuric acid market is weak, the demand for sulfur purchase is weak, the ammonium phosphate Market is temporarily stable, mainly for just needed purchase, the sulfur market is high, and the downstream has resistance to high priced sulfur. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some refineries, The quotation is slightly reduced, the price of solid sulfur is reduced by 30 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur is reduced by 50-60 yuan / ton.

 

Future forecast: the short-term sulfur market will wait and see the consolidation and operation, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

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