1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market continued to decline in August. On August 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8090 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the average price was 7380 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 8.78% during the month.

The domestic isopropanol market continued to decline in August. In the first ten days, the overall market mentality has changed, and the flexibility of on-site prices has been adjusted. Some factories have foreign trade orders to execute, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the factories. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised. Some holders have tight inventory, unable to sell at low prices, and offer at high prices. In the middle of the month, the market trading was average, and the raw material acetone fell sharply, affecting the mentality of the isopropanol market and causing manufacturers to lower their quotes. Overall, take a closer look and be cautious when making transactions. In the latter half of the year, the raw material acetone market saw a decline in market quotations, affecting the mentality of the isopropanol market, and the focus of on-site negotiations remained relatively low. Overall, there is still insufficient follow-up on downstream demand this month, and the overall trading performance in the market is poor. We are cautious about purchasing goods and are cautious about actual orders. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 7200-7250 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 7300-7400 yuan/ton. The quotation for the South China region is between 7500-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of import and export, according to customs statistics, the export volume of isopropanol in China in July 2024 was 7618334 kilograms, a decrease of about 21.1% compared to the previous month. The export amount is 8594873 US dollars. From January to July 2024, the cumulative export volume of isopropanol in China was 100949003 kilograms, with a cumulative amount of 109703455 US dollars. According to customs statistics, the import volume of isopropanol in China in July 2024 was 6516028 kilograms, a month on month increase of 92.6%, with an import amount of 5437503 US dollars. From January to July 2024, the cumulative import volume of isopropanol in China was 24716311 kilograms, with a cumulative amount of 39607248 US dollars.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market experienced a wide decline in August. On August 1st, the average price of acetone was 6975 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the average price was 6387.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.42% in price. After a wide decline in the acetone market in August, the operating rate of phenol ketone factories remained high, and the import contract goods arrived at the port normally, with sufficient supply. Traders still have shipment pressure; From the demand side, solvent terminal factories have seen an increase in demand for acetone as the weather cools down. Currently, acetone has bottomed out, making it a good time for the demand side to restock. In September, there will be a demand for stocking during the Double Festival holiday, and Business Society expects that trading will improve in the later period.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fluctuated and fell in August. On August 1st, the average domestic propylene price was 7133.25 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the average price was 6968.25 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.04%. At present, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and downstream demand is average. We should wait and see, and be cautious when purchasing actual orders. It is expected that the market will experience fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the domestic isopropanol market will continue to decline this month. The acetone market has experienced a wide decline in raw materials, while the propylene market prices have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in insufficient cost support. Demand for isopropanol exports in China decreased by 21.1% month on month in July. The international export situation is somewhat average, and the domestic downstream market is weak. It is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will continue to operate weakly, and we will pay attention to the subsequent cost trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (8.26-8.29), with an average market price of 265640 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 265680 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.21%.

Recently, tin prices have fluctuated downward. The price fluctuation has intensified, and the willingness of refineries to raise prices is supported, which has hindered the actual shipment volume. There is no significant improvement in the overall spot market, with traders selling steadily and first-time buyers restocking at low prices.

The demand terminal industry is in the off-season of consumption, with limited price advantages and suppressed order demand. The maintenance of leading enterprises and tight supply have provided support for tin prices. The tin ingot market still needs to pay more attention to whether the actual consumption during the peak season in the future market will increase, as well as changes in inventory.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester filament decreased at the end of the month. Currently, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price of 7300-7600 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price of 8900-9100 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price of 7900-8100 yuan/ton.

Downstream and end customers have cautious expectations for the future, with a clear wait-and-see attitude. Polyester filament manufacturers are concentrating on offering discounts for shipments, while downstream users are buying at low prices. Today, downstream enterprises have basically completed inventory replenishment.

In terms of raw materials, as we entered August, demand and US economic data fell short of expectations, leading to global asset recession trading. The weak fundamentals of polyester raw materials were amplified by macroeconomic sentiment, with PX hitting a new low since its listing and PTA falling below the long-term support level of 5500 yuan/ton.

Overall, the recent market trend of polyester filament has shown a downward adjustment in prices, and the future development of the market will be influenced by various factors, including raw material prices, market supply and demand, export situation, and policy environment.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of acetic acid has continued to decline recently (8.21-8.27). As of August 27th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton or 3.40% compared to the price of 3675 yuan/ton on August 21st.

Recently, the acetic acid market has been weak and declining, with enterprise quotations continuously falling. On the supply side, the maintenance of the acetic acid plant is centralized, and the manufacturer’s inventory is not high, so the main focus is on maintaining shipments; On the demand side, downstream consumers are resistant to high priced goods, and their enthusiasm for entering the market for purchasing is weak, resulting in poor market trading. However, traders are eager to settle for safety, and the focus of transactions has shifted downwards. The weak downstream demand combined with the mentality of buying up and not buying down has led to a significant decline in the price of acetic acid in the market.

As of August 27th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ August 21st/ On August 27th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3400 yuan/ton/ 3350 yuan/ton/ -50

North China region/ 3725 yuan/ton/ 3375 yuan/ton/ -350

Shandong region/ 3625 yuan/ton/ 3400 yuan/ton/ -225

Jiangsu region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ -175

Zhejiang region/ 3400 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ -175

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated upwards. As of August 27th, the average price in the domestic market was 2500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% compared to the price of 2469.17 yuan/ton on August 21st. Part of the methanol plants have been shut down unexpectedly, resulting in a narrow reduction in domestic methanol production. In addition, the large-scale olefin extraction in the northwest has led to an increase in the domestic methanol market, but the traditional downstream market has not shown significant improvement, and the overall increase in methanol production is not significant.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. On August 27th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5615 yuan/ton, which is 75 yuan/ton lower than the price of 5690 yuan/ton on August 21st. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and declining, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is weakened. Downstream acetic anhydride is following suit according to demand, and the market trading atmosphere is average. Acetic anhydride prices are consolidating and declining.

Market forecast: The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there will be more maintenance of the supplier’s acetic acid equipment, and the manufacturer’s inventory will not be affected. However, downstream demand is weak, market trading is poor, and the focus of traders continues to shift downwards. The market atmosphere is bearish, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and consolidated in the short term. We will pay attention to downstream follow-up in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased this week. On August 20th, the average market price was 801 yuan/ton, and on August 26th, the average market price was around 808 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 1.64%. On August 26th, the chemical index was 857 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.79% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 43.31% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 785-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Jiangsu region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 880-920 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Inner Mongolia region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2200-2300 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali (converted to 100 yuan). This week, the inventory of caustic soda is low, and the willingness to purchase has increased.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 34th week of 2024 (8.19-8.23), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: caustic soda (0.75%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.49%), light soda ash (-0.55%), and PVC (-0.22%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.25%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has risen and the inventory in Shandong region has remained relatively low. In addition, some downstream buyers have increased their purchasing intentions at the end of the month. In addition, recent rainfall has led to a decrease in transportation volume. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to rise in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

This week (August 19-23), the nylon filament market remained stable with slight fluctuations, operating steadily with prices slightly rising. Upstream raw materials are becoming stronger, and the weekly settlement price of Sinopec’s caprolactam is 13250 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance), an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. There is currently no significant improvement in downstream demand, and manufacturers are following up on demand from multiple parties. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and businesses lack confidence in the future market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not significant. Overall, as costs continue to rise and demand remains weak, the price of nylon filament remains stable with slight fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament has slightly improved this week (August 19-23). As of August 23, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18680 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to last week. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16300 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

The trend of raw materials is stable, moderate, and strong

This week (August 19-23), the fundamentals of the nylon filament raw material caprolactam market improved, with stable and strengthening cost support. The weekly closing price of Sinopec caprolactam was 13250 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance), an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week.. The supply expectation is slightly tight, and downstream nylon PA6 production remains at a high level, with stable demand. The supply expectation of caprolactam is slightly tight, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will be slightly better organized in the later stage.

Supply demand

This week (August 19-23), nylon manufacturers maintained stable operating loads and sufficient supply of goods. In August, it was the traditional off-season for textiles, and downstream demand was weak. The weaving start-up rate continued to be weak. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions this week was 60.85%, an increase of 1.90% compared to last week. However, there is still a gap in the number of new orders compared to previous years, resulting in a low operating rate in the weaving industry. Downstream manufacturers are adopting on-demand procurement, and their demand for nylon spinning is weak and difficult to change.

Future forecast

The spot market for raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 is expected to be slightly better organized, with normal on-site supply and weak downstream demand. With the disappearance of high temperature weather, the trading atmosphere for nylon civilian silk may slightly rebound, but it will still be mainly based on on-demand purchasing. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the positive consolidation of raw materials, and prices will mainly fluctuate upward in a narrow range.

This week (8.12-8.18), the domestic price of ethyl acetate continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 18th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6160.0 yuan/ton. Due to weak demand, insufficient cost boost, and bearish supply side market, the ethyl acetate market continues to decline.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has continued to decline this week. On the raw material side, the acetic acid market remains stable, with insufficient cost boost; On the supply side, the main factories in Shandong have poor shipments, with bidding prices continuously decreasing and market transactions being poor, leading to a bearish attitude among industry players; Downstream enterprises have low enthusiasm for entering the market, slow consumption of inventory, and a small amount of essential needs entering the market, resulting in weak performance downstream; There is a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and the price of ethyl acetate is weakly declining.

Looking ahead, the upstream acetic acid market for ethyl acetate has intentions of exploring an upward trend, with potential cost support and increased momentum for the rise of ethyl acetate; On the supply side, some enterprises’ equipment will be shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization; Downstream demand is limited, and enterprises mainly consume inventory, which to some extent suppresses the rise of ethyl acetate. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will rise slightly in the later period, and specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

This week (8.3-8.9), the domestic acrylonitrile market continued to decline. The price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has been continuously declining for more than three months, and there is still no clear sign of bottoming out. As of the weekend, the mainstream self pickup price in the East China market has dropped to around 8000 yuan/ton, and short distance delivery in the Shandong market is being negotiated around 8000 yuan/ton. Supply exceeding demand is still the fundamental factor leading to the decline in acrylonitrile prices. Due to the considerable profits of some acrylonitrile major factories in co producing MMA products, it supports the maintenance of acrylonitrile plant production, especially in maintaining ample supply. However, there is currently no effective positive news.

On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic acrylonitrile plants has decreased to around 74%, still maintaining a high level.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic propylene market has slightly declined this week, with the mainstream closing reference at 6750-6850 yuan/ton. At present, the market direction guidance is not clear, and the wait-and-see sentiment among industry players still exists. Downstream demand is supported by a certain amount of buying demand, and most propylene companies have eased their shipping pressure, which still provides support for price trends. However, fundamental pressure still exists, and it is expected that the propylene market will be dominated by weak fluctuations.

Weak demand: This week, some ABS units in China have slightly increased their operating load, while downstream units have been affected by high temperatures and rainy weather, resulting in some shutdowns and holidays. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 67%, an increase of 1.13% compared to the previous period.

Overall, the domestic propylene market may experience weak fluctuations next week, with insufficient cost support. Although acrylonitrile factories have taken measures such as maintenance or production reduction to alleviate shipment pressure, downstream inquiries tend to be low-end, and the news of production reduction has not boosted the acrylonitrile market. The focus of transactions is expected to continue to weaken, and it is expected that the mainstream negotiation price for self pickup in East China ports will fall to around 7900 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 9th to August 16th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 12425 yuan/ton to 12450 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.2% during the period. This week, the butadiene market experienced narrow fluctuations, with a slight rebound in market prices, but the magnitude was limited. During the week, some enterprises in Shandong region suspended their export plans, which led to a slight rebound in spot market prices in the region and indirectly affected the slight increase in market quotes in East China. However, downstream market demand has remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment, resulting in limited gains this week. As of August 16th, the self pickup price of butadiene in East China is around 12250 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The ex factory price of Sinopec remains unchanged at 12500 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: During this cycle, the international crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. As of August 15th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.16 per barrel, an increase of $1.18 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.04 per barrel, an increase of $1.28 or 1.6%.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 12500 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th and is scheduled to restart at the end of August; The second unit of Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical has been restarted in June. The butadiene and downstream butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical will shut down simultaneously and are expected to restart by the end of August. Recently, there has been little change in the comprehensive operating rate in China, and this week it has remained stable with a slight increase. Currently, the supply of butadiene in China is relatively stable.

On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, and due to the impact of low corporate profits, the production of butadiene rubber continued to remain low; Downstream tire production has slightly declined, overall inquiries are cautious, and there is resistance to high priced sources, resulting in flat market trading. The downstream terminal market maintains a strong demand for raw material butadiene and has a strong resistance to high priced sources of goods. As of August 15th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69% from 14750 yuan/ton on August 5th. The ex factory price of Shunding rubber from PetroChina Northeast Sales Company is 14200 yuan/ton, and currently the mainstream market price for Shunding in Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China is 14300-14550 yuan/ton. At present, the demand performance is weak, and the demand support for the butadiene market is insufficient.

On Thursday (August 15th), the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was partially lowered: the FOB price in South Korea was reported at $1465-1475 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton; China’s CFR report is $1475-1485 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1175-1185/ton, unchanged; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1105-1115 euros/ton, unchanged.

Market forecast: The overall supply of butadiene in the domestic market is relatively stable in the near future, but there will be some shipping schedules arriving in the East China region, which will have a certain impact on the market atmosphere. From the perspective of demand, downstream companies have always maintained a strong demand for replenishment, while synthetic rubber enterprises have been affected by declining profits, resulting in a significant lack of purchasing enthusiasm in recent times and a wait-and-see market atmosphere. Overall, the recent performance of the butadiene market has been weak in both supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the downstream market’s receiving situation and arrival shipping schedule.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on August 12th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12020 yuan/ton. Compared to August 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 12100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%.

According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic silicon metal market remained stable and consolidated in the first week of August. After a continuous decline in the previous market, the market finally stopped falling and stabilized in August. However, the market situation has not been calm for several days. Due to poor supply and demand transmission in the market, the metal silicon market has once again fallen, and the prices of metal silicon in many regions have been lowered by 50-100 yuan/ton. As of August 12th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 is around 11800-12450 yuan/ton.

In terms of inventory: Currently, the social inventory of silicon metal in China is about 481000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the beginning of the month. The overall destocking performance of silicon metal is average, and the inventory supply is loose.

Supply side: Currently, the supply side of silicon metal is still loose, and the supply side is under pressure, providing limited support to the silicon metal market.

In terms of production: In July 2024, the silicon metal market entered a period of high demand, and the on-site production gradually increased. In July, the domestic silicon metal production was about 487000 tons. In August, due to downstream demand constraints, some metal silicon factories started operating at a reduced rate. The overall production of metal silicon is expected to decrease compared to July, but the overall capacity utilization rate is still high.

Downstream: Recently, the downstream organic silicon DMC market for metallic silicon has experienced a narrow rebound. Currently, the organic silicon DMC market mainly digests early-stage raw materials, and the demand for metallic silicon has not increased much. It remains to be seen whether the future market can bring a slight increase in demand to the silicon metal market.

The overall operating rate of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market has slightly decreased, and the demand for metallic silicon has also slightly decreased. The downstream metallurgical market is operating at a low level, and there has been no significant boost in demand for silicon metal, with a focus on on-demand procurement. Therefore, since August, the overall demand performance of the silicon metal market has been poor, providing insufficient market support for silicon metal.

Market analysis in the future

At present, there is a strong sentiment of observation in the metal silicon field, and the mentality of industry players is cautious. The transmission between supply and demand is still relatively slow. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market is mainly characterized by narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.