In 2021, the domestic lead ingot Market fluctuated and rose. The average price of domestic market was 14862.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15318.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly rise of 3.07%.
On January 28, the lead commodity index was 93.23, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 30.43% from the highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29) in the cycle, and up 24.92% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
Since January, at the beginning of the month, the sales of downstream battery enterprises increased, the lead ingot inventory was postponed, the downstream demand improved, the spot lead market negotiations increased, and the market price trend was good. Around the 7th, affected by the public health incident in Hebei, transportation was limited, many refineries in Hebei Province entered the overhaul ahead of time, the overall operating rate declined, the demand for raw materials weakened, and the market price entered the downward cycle. Since the middle of this year, with the gradual recovery of transportation and the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream manufacturers have a certain demand for goods, and the price of spot lead has fluctuated higher. However, towards the end of the month, downstream manufacturers began to repair or stop production one after another, and the manufacturers that did not stop production also announced the shutdown time, and their willingness to prepare raw materials declined. They mainly purchased a small amount of raw materials, and most of them were long-term customers. Only in Henan and other areas where there is no work stoppage during the holidays, the transaction is slightly better. As of the 29th, most enterprises have finished preparing goods before the festival. According to the announcement, most enterprises will enter the Spring Festival holiday early next month. As for futures, LME’s lead inventory was removed again by the 29th, with a decrease of 3025 tons to 10415 tons. This month, LME’s lead inventory was continuously and intensively removed, with the main trend of lead shock. In January, Shanghai lead was first restrained and then rose. In the first half of the month, the downward trend stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of the month, with a monthly increase of about 4%.
In the future, the business club believes that the stock preparation before the festival is basically over, and the traders have more demand for funds and strong shipping intention near the end of the new year. However, the downstream batteries continue to be in the doldrums, and the lead price without demand support is difficult to increase significantly. Due to the recent uncertainties in Sino US relations, the futures market failed to continue its early rise, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate before the festival.
WBMs: the global lead market will be short of 86000 tons from January to November 2020: according to the latest report released by the world Bureau of metal statistics on Wednesday, the global lead market will be short of 86000 tons from January to November 2020, compared with 264000 tons in 2019. From January to November, the global refined lead output was 11.969 million tons, an increase of 3.9% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 5.759 million tons, an increase of 420000 tons over the same period in 2019, accounting for about 48% of the global total. In November 2020, the output of refined lead is 1.2068 million tons, and the demand is 1.2284 million tons.
ILZSG: the global lead market was short of 8000 tons in October: according to the international lead zinc research group (ILZSG), the global lead market was short of 8000 tons in October and 300 tons in September. In the first 10 months of 2020, global lead supply was in excess of 164000 tons, compared with a shortage of 42000 tons in the same period last year.