1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate on January 12th was 1063 yuan/ton, which is 1.59% higher than the average market price of 1046 yuan/ton on January 5th.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have been rising. This week, the operating rate of coking grade ammonium sulfate remained stable, while the operating rate of domestic grade ammonium sulfate decreased, resulting in a decrease in market supply. This week, the price of urea has risen, which indirectly benefits the ammonium sulfate market. The demand for ammonium sulfate in the market is stable, and the transaction atmosphere is improving. However, downstream procurement remains cautious, with a focus on low-priced purchases.
market situation
As of January 12th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 910 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1020-1070 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent strong upward trend in the ammonium sulfate market is the main trend. At present, the market for ammonium sulfate is improving, with manufacturers and distributors mainly pushing prices. The terminal demand is average, and the upward space is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be dominated by strong price consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 4th to 9th, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5430 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.35% and a year-on-year increase of 4.43%. The domestic ethanol market has seen a double increase in supply and demand, and the cost of fermented ethanol is running at a high level with limited upward momentum; The terminal demand has improved, and the short-term cost positive trend still exists. With the destocking environment in the main production areas, the future market is stable but weak.

From a cost perspective, the overall price center of corn continues to shift upwards. The price increase of Beigang has stimulated the arrival of goods, and futures have also risen. The production area follows Beigang and futures with a price increase of 10-30 yuan/ton. The quantity of grain on the market is still limited, and the enthusiasm for selling grain at the grassroots level is still average. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
The supply side and ethanol supply side are affected by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream ethyl acetate production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Market forecast, overall. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.

In December 2025, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a trend of “fluctuating upward, then rebounding after a pullback”. According to the monitoring system, as of December 31st, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 7733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% compared to December 1st. The core contradiction in the market is concentrated in the supply game between the release of new production capacity and the elimination of old equipment, coupled with the dual constraints of fluctuating raw material propylene prices and weak downstream demand, resulting in a phased pattern of prices.

In early December, the epoxy propane market showed a steady upward trend, with prices gradually rising from 7750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8166.67 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.38%.
Raw material side: At the beginning of the month, the price of propylene remained at a high level of 6180.75 yuan/ton, forming a basic support for the cost side. According to the monitoring system, as of December 12th, the benchmark price of propylene was 6220.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton).
Due to the accelerated destocking of some small and medium-sized enterprises, the supply of goods in the market has tightened temporarily.
Downstream polyether factories have started replenishing inventory and actively purchasing, resulting in an increase of approximately 15% in order volume compared to the end of November. Wanhua Chemical has simultaneously increased its external procurement efforts to further alleviate supply pressure. Mainstream factories have raised their ex factory prices by 100-150 yuan/ton, and the market transaction center continues to shift upward.
Entering mid December, the release of production capacity in the epoxy propane market encountered weak demand, resulting in a downward pressure on prices. As of December 24th, the price gradually fell from 8166.67 yuan/ton (December 12th) to 7850 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase or decrease of 3.88%.
On the raw material side, the price of propylene has been continuously declining. As of December 31st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5711.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.6% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). Weakened cost support.
On the supply side, the 300000 tons/year PO plant of Lianhong was put into operation ahead of schedule on December 10th. Coupled with the release of other new production capacity in Shandong, the tight supply situation in the market has significantly eased, and the enterprise inventory has rebounded to 46000 tons.
Demand side: The downstream PP powder production rate has dropped to a low of 37%, and polyether enterprises have reduced their procurement volume by 30% due to light orders for terminal building materials and home furnishings, only maintaining small orders for essential needs. The factories in the north and south are selling at low prices to reduce inventory, further suppressing market sentiment.
In late December, the epoxy propane market showed a “fluctuating rebound under the game of supply and demand”, with prices rising from 7850 yuan/ton to 8050 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55%.
Raw material side: The price of propylene continues to decline, with weak cost support.
Supply side: On December 22nd, the joint PO device officially produced qualified products, with a theoretical increase in daily supply of 800 tons, which initially triggered bearish sentiment in the market. However, during the same period, a large factory in the north temporarily shut down due to environmental protection rectification, affecting its daily production capacity of 500 tons and causing supply side disturbances, forming a hedge. The northern factory took the opportunity to raise the factory price by 200 yuan/ton, which led to a rebound in spot prices.
Demand side: Downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high priced raw materials, with a new order transaction rate of less than 40% and a strong resistance mentality. After the price rises, it quickly enters a stalemate state, and the trend at the end of the month is weak.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, the price trend of propylene in the raw material market is weak, which provides weak support for epoxy propane and limits the driving force for enterprises to raise prices; The release of new production capacity on the supply side is parallel to the elimination of old equipment, leading to an increase in industry concentration but short-term supply easing. Downstream industries are generally facing profit inversion, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus, making it difficult to form sustained upward momentum; It is expected that the epoxy propane market will continue to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

Price trends in 2025
According to business data, the average market price of ammonium sulfate on January 1 is 826 yuan / ton, the average market price of ammonium sulfate on December 31 is 1046 yuan / ton, and the domestic ammonium sulfate market price rose 26.61% throughout the year in 2025. The highest value of ammonium sulfate in the year is 1343 yuan / ton on June 24, and the lowest value in the year is 826 yuan / ton on January 1.
Market Analysis for 2025
In 2025, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will rise after the shock surge.
Ammonium sulfate market trend in the first half of 2025 shocks the actors. Ammonium sulfate market price rose in January-February. Demand for downstream composite fertilizer enterprises increased, downstream pellet factories actively replenished, and market trade warmed up. Urea market price rose sharply, favouring the domestic ammonium sulfate market. Ammonium sulfate market price fell in March. Domestic ammonium sulfate market demand was weak, new orders were reduced, and downstream procurement intention was insufficient Ammonium sulfate market price decreased in May. Market demand is limited, weak transaction. In June, the market for ammonium sulfate grew sharply, an increase of more than 20%. Due to geopolitical events, some countries stopped production of urea.
In the second half of 2025, the market for ammonium sulfate is depressed. In July-September, the market price of ammonium sulfate continues to fall. The supply of ammonium sulfate is sufficient, the downstream inquiries are reduced, the purchasing activity is weakened, and the trading atmosphere is light. The export market is poor, enterprise shipments are under pressure, and the ammonium sulfate market is weak. The atmosphere is faint, downstream replenishment on demand, there is resistance to high prices.
According to the K-column chart for the month 2025, the largest increase in ammonium sulfate in the year 2025 is in June, an increase of 20.97%. The largest decrease in the year is in December, a decrease of 10.79%.
Future Market Forecast for 2026
Availability
In recent years, China’s ammonium sulfate production capacity has maintained a growing trend. The total production capacity of ammonium sulfate will reach about 30.5 million tons in 2025, an increase of 12.17% year-on-year. The total output will reach 27.92.4 million tons in 2025 and increase to 34.62 million tons in 2027. The growth is mainly due to the rapid growth in the commissioning and by-production capacity of large-scale capsulamide units. In 2023-2025, there are about 34 ammonium sulfate proposed units in China, with a total production capacity of 4.4 million tons / year, of which capsulamide grade accounts for 88%.

China’s ammonium sulfate production capacity is expected to continue to increase in 2026. The compound growth rate is expected to be 4.40% over the next five years, which is slower than in the past five years. Environmental protection policies and “dual carbon” targets will drive SME production capacity and expand the advantages of leading enterprises.
Export situation
In January-November 2025, China’s total ammonium sulfate exports reached 1936 million tons, an increase of 4.01 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 26.1% year-on-year, with total exports of $2.995 billion, an increase of 31% year-on-year, and the total annual export volume is expected to reach 21 million tons. In January-November 2025, China’s main exporters of ammonium sulfate are Brazil, Vietnam, Myanmar, Indonesia and Turkey.
China is a major supplier of ammonium sulfate worldwide, with increasing market share and influence. Combined with the continued release of China’s ammonium sulfate production capacity, exports are expected to continue to grow in 2026, but the growth rate will be somewhat slower than before. There is a problem of soil sulfur deficiency in the Americas, and demand for ammonium sulfate is expected to continue to grow, and Brazil may maintain the status quo as the largest export destination. The maturity of extrusion pellet technology will also help ammonium sulfate exports.
Demand situation
In 2025, China’s demand for ammonium sulfate is expected to reach 10.564 million tons, with agricultural composite fertilizers and industrial applications being the main growth points. Agriculture: accounting for 65%-70%, and the demand for economic crops such as tobacco and tea will grow by an average of 3.5%-4.2% per year. Industrial: accounting will increase from 22% to 30%, and the demand for new energy batteries (lithium battery positive-pole materials) and rare earth mining is strong.
Demand for ammonium sulfate in China is expected to grow steadily in 2026, with agriculture and industry being the main drivers.
Agricultural demand: increased food production drives the demand for nitrogen fertilizer. The increase in food production directly pulls the demand for ammonium sulfate as nitrogen fertilizer.
Industrial demand: Multi-industry applications are expanding. Antibiotics and vitamin production demand is increasing, driving the application of ammonium sulfate in the pharmaceutical field, and the demand for new energy batteries and rare earth mining is increasing.
Summary and outlook
In summary, the overall market situation for ammonium sulfate in 2025 is good. Supply is sufficient, demand is mainly agricultural, and industrial applications are growing significantly. Technically, green production technology and high purity products are trends. In terms of policy, environmental standards are tightened, but agricultural subsidies may continue.
Ammonium sulfate market is expected to remain optimistic in 2026. The market is expected to have a loose supply, and exports are still the main driver of growth, but prices may fluctuate under the influence of environmental protection policies. Ammonium sulfate production capacity is expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate is slowing down, mainly affected by the pace of production of capsulamide devices.

1、 Review of the price trend of n-butanol in 2025

From the data monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in 2025, the overall market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, fluctuated and fell. On January 1, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7116 yuan/ton, and on December 31, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 5633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.84% during the year.
According to the data monitoring chart of Shengyi Society, from January to December 2025, the n-butanol market experienced a trend of “first high, then low, and then weak correction at the end of the year”.
From January to June 2025, the n-butanol market fluctuated and fell, with a six-month decline of nearly 9%
At the beginning of the year, the n-butanol market fluctuated within a range, with prices hovering around 7100-7200 yuan/ton. Starting from March, the n-butanol market experienced a sudden decline, and by May and June, the market situation had slightly rebounded, but the momentum was insufficient. In the first half of 2025, n-butanol fell by 8.9%.
From July to December 2025, the downward trend of n-butanol will widen and lower its price, approaching 5000 yuan/ton
In the second half of 2025, the n-butanol market continued to decline. On August 8th, the n-butanol price fell below the 6000 yuan/ton mark and experienced a slight rebound, but the sustained support was insufficient, causing the market to fall again. The “Golden September and Silver October” did not provide market support, and the downward trend channel opened. On November 20th, n-butanol fell to the lowest point of the year, approaching the 5000 yuan/ton mark, with a reference of 5066 yuan/ton, and a decline of over 21% for the year. Subsequently, the market rebounded slightly, but the upward trend was limited, with a full year market price range of 5150-5850 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing the N-butanol Market in 2025
• Raw materials and cost side: The fluctuation of raw material propylene prices is the core driving force. In 2025, the propylene market price will fluctuate around 7100-5900 yuan/ton. From the end of the year to the beginning of the year, the propylene market will experience a significant decline. The accelerated decline in propylene prices from October to November directly led to the loosening of cost support for n-butanol, causing the market price to fall to the lowest level of the year and insufficient effective market support.
Supply and demand side: Throughout 2025, the n-butanol market has shown a trend of “supply exceeding demand”. During the year, the overall production of n-butanol remained at a relatively high level, with ample supply. In the first half of the year, downstream industries such as coatings and plasticizers had high demand for n-butanol, and the transmission of supply was still acceptable. The overall decline in n-butanol prices was limited; Entering the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, the downstream demand for n-butanol has basically entered a low season. Downstream enterprises have digested their previous inventory, their purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, new orders have been cautiously executed, inquiries are concentrated in the low-end, and the support for the demand segment is gradually losing effectiveness. The market price has decreased significantly.
Policy and Process: The “Implementation Plan for Carbon Peaking in Petrochemical Industry” imposes constraints on coal head equipment, increases carbon costs, and forces some high carbon production capacity to be reduced, while green process equipment maintains stable supply with policy advantages, affecting the market supply and demand structure.

3、 Outlook and forecast of n-butanol industry in 2026
（1） Capacity forecast: structural expansion continues, concentration further increases
From 2018 to 2023, China’s n-butanol production capacity maintained stable growth. In 2024, the release rate of new n-butanol production capacity increased, and in 2025, n-butanol will continue to release new production capacity. In 2025, the domestic n-butanol industry will exhibit a parallel feature of “structural expansion+clearance of inefficient production capacity”, with a total production capacity of about 4.03 million tons per year, an increase of 10.10% compared to 2024.
It is expected that China will continue to release new production capacity of n-butanol and octanol in 2026.
In terms of regional layout, by 2025, the East China region will still be the core area of production capacity, with Shandong and Jiangsu accounting for over 65% of production capacity thanks to their advantages in integration and ports; The proportion of production capacity in southern and western regions is relatively small.
（2） Supply and demand pattern forecast: Demand growth rate outperforms supply, structural gap reveals
Supply side: It is expected that the overall supply of n-butanol will increase in 2026, but due to stricter environmental regulations, some small and medium-sized production capacity may face temporary production restrictions, which will have a short-term impact on local supply. In addition to the pressure of carbon costs and the impact of coal head plant operating rates, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be around 86% in 2026, and the overall supply growth will be moderate and controllable.
On the demand side, it is expected that the demand for n-butanol will also increase in 2026. In traditional fields, the demand for water-based coatings and plasticizers will provide stable market support; The demand in emerging fields is expected to experience explosive growth, with the demand for n-butanol in electric vehicle battery materials and biodegradable plastics growing at an increasingly significant rate. The growth rate of electronic grade n-butanol used in semiconductors is also gradually emerging, and emerging fields will become the core growth point of n-butanol demand in 2026. Overall, the demand growth rate in 2026 will outperform the supply growth rate, and the industry will shift from “supply-demand balance” to “structural tight balance”. There may be local supply gaps during the peak demand season in the second and third quarters.
（3） Production forecast: Production increases with supply and demand
From the continuous expansion of supply side production capacity and the growth rate of demand in emerging fields on the demand side, it is expected that the production of n-butanol in China will increase narrowly in 2026. From the past few years, the overall production of n-butanol in China has fluctuated within a certain range. In 2024, the concentrated release of n-butanol production capacity will drive the overall production increase. In 2025, there will continue to be new production capacity in the market, and it is estimated that the production of n-butanol in 2025 will be approximately 2.97 million tons. It is expected that by 2026, with the increase in production capacity and the driving force of demand, the output of n-butanol is expected to exceed 3.3 million tons.
（4） Export forecast: The export market is expected to expand again

In recent years, the export volume of n-butanol in China has remained small, not exceeding 30000 tons, and has been declining since 2022, with only 3700 tons in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 83.33%. The export volume of n-butanol has increased in 2024 and decreased in 2025. From January to October, the export volume of n-butanol was 11700 tons, indicating the overall looseness of demand. At present, Vietnam, India, Türkiye and other Southeast Asian and Central and Eastern European markets have strong demand. Therefore, China’s n-butanol export is expected to grow again in 2026.
（5） Price trend prediction: first suppress and then rise, with a central upward shift
Based on data from Shengyi Society and industry fundamentals, it is expected that the price of n-butanol will show a trend of “bottoming out in the first quarter, rising in the second quarter, and operating at a high level in the second half of the year” in 2026. The price center for the whole year will increase by 5% -8% compared to 2025, with a core operating range of 5400-6200 yuan/ton.
• First quarter: Continuing the weak trend at the end of 2025, downstream demand is in the off-season, market trading is light, and prices are bottoming out in the range of 5400-5600 yuan/ton, mainly due to insufficient stocking demand and abundant supply before the Spring Festival.
Q2: With downstream industries such as coatings and plastics entering the peak season for production, coupled with increasing demand in the new energy materials sector, demand side support is strengthened. At the same time, propylene prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, driving n-butanol prices to break through 5800 yuan/ton and move towards the 6000 yuan/ton range.
In the second half of the year, the tight supply-demand balance pattern is highlighted, and the premium of green technology is increasing. Coupled with the growth of export demand, the price will remain at a high level of 5900-6200 yuan/ton. If there is a disturbance in propylene supply or extreme weather affecting logistics, the price may exceed 6500 yuan/ton.
3、 Summary
In 2025, the n-butanol industry will operate in a volatile manner under the guidance of capacity optimization, demand upgrading, and policy guidance, with prices showing weak declines and periodic adjustments due to supply and demand and fluctuations in raw materials. In 2026, the industry will enter a stage of “high-quality growth”, with increased concentration of production capacity, upgraded demand structure, and green transformation becoming the core themes. The tight balance between supply and demand will drive the price center upward, and emerging fields and export markets will become key growth engines. Enterprises need to focus on upgrading green processes, developing high-end products, and optimizing regional layout to cope with market fluctuations and policy changes, and seize development opportunities brought about by industry transformation.

In 2025, the phenolic ketone industry will usher in a crucial year of structural adjustment. The policy direction of “anti internal competition” is clear, promoting the transformation of the industry from low price competition to high-quality development; The production capacity side presents the characteristic of “old and new rotation”, with the concentrated release of new production capacity and the parallel exit of outdated production capacity; The imbalance between supply and demand in the market is intensifying, prices are deeply declining, and industry profits are under pressure; Technological innovation focuses on green, low-carbon, and efficient utilization, and the trend of industrial chain integration is becoming increasingly prominent. The following is a summary of the core events of the year:
1、 Policy led transformation: dual wheel drive of environmental protection and anti involution policies
-At the beginning of the year, the upgrading of domestic environmental protection standards was implemented. Starting from 2025, the newly revised “Emission Standards for Volatile Organic Compounds in the Petrochemical Industry” will be officially implemented, clarifying the requirements for VOCs emission control of phenol and ketone production enterprises, forcing small and medium-sized production capacity to accelerate the upgrading of environmental protection equipment, and further raising the industry access threshold. At the same time, the supporting implementation rules of the “Guiding Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)” have been released, clarifying the elimination standards for outdated production capacity in the phenol ketone industry (mainly for devices that have been in operation for more than 20 years and have a scale of less than 300000 tons/year), and setting a red line for optimizing the industry structure.

-In March, the National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference emphasized the need to combat internal competition in the chemical industry. During the conference, “breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation, and rectifying internal competition” became a hot topic in the chemical industry. It was clarified that the phenol ketone industry needs to achieve efficient and intensive development through supply-demand matching and structural upgrading, and a supply side optimization model driven by policy guidance and market mechanisms was gradually established.
-Throughout the year, the EU REACH regulation has been strengthened with compliance requirements. The EU has updated the REACH regulation, added four restrictions on phenolic ketone substances, and put forward stricter requirements for the supply chain traceability and carbon footprint certification of phenolic ketone derivatives. Domestic export-oriented phenolic ketone enterprises have accelerated the construction of compliance systems to cope with green trade barriers.
2、 Capacity restructuring: Concentrated release of new capacity, accelerated exit of old capacity
-In the first half of the year, the phenol ketone unit of Fuyu Chemical was put into operation as the first batch of new production capacity in 2025. The phenol ketone unit of Fuyu Chemical was successfully put into operation, and the total domestic phenol ketone production capacity exceeded 10.48 million tons per year, further highlighting the loose supply side pattern.
-June: The old units of Yanshan Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical officially withdrew from the phenol and ketone units that have been in operation for over 20 years. There is no clear plan to restart them, and they have been removed from the total industry production capacity, with a total withdrawal capacity of about 400000 tons per year. The proportion of old production capacity has decreased to below 7.54%.
-In July, the 650000 tons/year phenol ketone plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and the large-scale phenol ketone plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical successfully produced qualified products. After the commissioning, the domestic phenol ketone production capacity exceeded 11.26 million tons/year, and the proportion of production capacity in the East China region increased to over 70%, further strengthening the regional production capacity cluster effect.
-At the end of the third quarter, Jilin Petrochemical’s 350000 tons/year new plant was put into operation. Jilin Petrochemical’s 350000 tons/year phenol ketone plant was completed and put into operation, achieving stable output in the fourth quarter, directly exacerbating the supply pressure in the Northeast and North China regions, and the industry operating rate rebounded to around 75%.

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Throughout the year, multiple sets of phenol ketone units, including CNOOC, Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I, and Gaoqiao Petrochemical, have entered a long-term shutdown state due to long-term shutdown adjustments. The total shutdown capacity is 890000 tons per year, which offsets the 1.35 million tons of new production capacity added throughout the year. The net increase in production capacity is about 460000 tons, and the supply pressure has not yet eased.
3、 Market volatility intensifies: prices deeply decline, profit margins continue to compress
-June July: Mainstream enterprise maintenance caused short-term supply tightening. Multiple core phenol ketone units, including 650000 tons/year for Wanhua Chemical, 560000 tons/year for Shanghai Xisa, and 400000 tons/year for Sinopec Mitsui, were shut down for maintenance. Among them, Wanhua Chemical had a maintenance cycle of up to 45 days, which temporarily reduced market supply and drove phenol prices to remain firm in the short term.
-October December: Phenol prices hit a five-year low, with a decline of over 15%. In the fourth quarter, the phenol market entered a period of deep adjustment. Affected by the triple negative factors of new production capacity release, weak downstream demand, and weakened raw material prices, the cumulative decline in phenol prices in the East China market reached 15.44%. At the end of the year, the mainstream quotation converged at 5750-5850 yuan/ton, reaching the lowest level in nearly five years, and the annual average price fell by 13.44% year-on-year.
4、 Technology and industrial upgrading: Innovation focuses on green and efficient, integrated models become mainstream
-Throughout the year, patent applications have continued to grow, with catalysis and energy-saving technologies becoming hot topics. From 2020 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of patent applications related to phenol and ketone in China is 14%. In 2025, the focus will be on catalyst modification, wastewater treatment, low-energy processes, and comprehensive utilization of by-products. The popularization rate of direct oxidation process will increase, and the application proportion of emerging catalyst systems will increase to 30%.
-Within the year: Leading enterprises accelerate the integration of the industrial chain layout. Multiple leading enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta have connected the entire industry chain of “phenol acetone bisphenol A polycarbonate” through mergers and acquisitions. Some enterprises have also built supporting photovoltaic power stations, achieving a 15% reduction in energy costs and responding to market pressure through differentiated competition.
-Throughout the year, the expansion of emerging application areas has accelerated the penetration rate of high-purity phenolic ketone products in new energy battery packaging materials, electronic grade phenolic resins, special epoxy resins, and other fields. The procurement volume of phenolic intermediates in the medical disinfection field has increased by 12% compared to 2023, becoming a new bright spot for demand growth.

5、 Adjustment of Trade Pattern: Enhanced Export Orientation and Deepening of Regional Trade Network
-Throughout the year, China’s phenolic ketone exports have steadily increased due to overcapacity, driving export-oriented development. By 2025, China’s phenolic ketone exports are expected to exceed 850000 tons, mainly flowing to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, gradually shifting from a net importer to a regional exporter.
-Fourth quarter: Import replenishment intensifies domestic supply pressure. Phenol imports from the East China region continue to arrive at ports, with a total of 49700 tons arriving in December. Although port inventories are temporarily stable, expectations for in transit shipments continue to suppress market prices.
-Throughout the year, the trend of regional trade highlights the increasingly tight network of phenolic ketone trade within Asia. Europe’s dependence on imports has risen to 35% due to the closure of old facilities. The global supply chain layout is shifting towards regionalization and nearshore operations, and shipping costs and green trade barriers have become key factors affecting trade flows.
Overall, in 2025, the phenolic ketone industry will accelerate structural adjustment under policy guidance, with capacity expansion and elimination going hand in hand. The imbalance between market supply and demand will lead to a deep decline in prices, putting pressure on industry profitability. In the future, technological innovation, industrial chain integration, and green transformation will become the core direction for the industry to break through “internal competition” and achieve high-quality development.

Introduction: Ethanol, commonly known as alcohol, can be divided into edible alcohol and industrial alcohol according to production methods. Edible alcohol is a product obtained by fermenting food and yeast in a fermentation tank, filtering, and distilling. It is usually an aqueous solution of ethanol and does not contain toxic benzene and methanol to the human body. Industrial alcohol is ethanol obtained by cracking long-chain organic compounds in petroleum under catalyst and high temperature conditions. In order to distinguish it from edible alcohol, industrial alcohol contains a certain amount of organic toxic substances such as methanol, which are also clearly marked and explained on the outer packaging. The ethanol specification monitored by Business Society is food grade 95% ethanol.

According to the monitoring data of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market in 2025 will show weak supply and demand, with range fluctuations. The annual average price is 5392.20 yuan/ton, the highest price is 5698.89 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 5105.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 11.6%, and an increase of 5.01% at the beginning and end of the year; Limited cost support, loose supply, weak demand, and lack of upward momentum in prices. In 2026, it is expected that there will be a weak adjustment due to the temporary selling pressure of corn, which will drag down costs, make it difficult to boost demand, and continue to increase supply. Only winter logistics may bring local fluctuations.
Specifically, let’s take a look:
In the first half of the year, the domestic ethanol market showed a volatile upward trend, mainly supported by the dual benefits of cost side driving and phased tightening of supply side – the price of raw material corn remained stable and slightly strong, coupled with the centralized maintenance of equipment in the industry, the market supply was temporarily tight, and ethanol prices rose accordingly. The price increase gradually transmitted from the Northeast production area to the East China sales area, and the overall increase was limited due to the impact of market supply and demand game.
In the second half of the year, the ethanol market has significant differentiation characteristics, and the overall market is under pressure and weakening. In the third quarter, the market supply increment was released, downstream demand remained weak, and coupled with the synchronous decline in raw material costs, multiple negative factors intertwined, causing ethanol prices to enter a volatile downward channel; In the fourth quarter, the operating rate of domestic ethanol plants steadily rebounded, and market production increased accordingly. However, the demand side’s support for essential needs was insufficient, and the weak pattern remained unchanged. Ethanol prices continued to show a weak consolidation trend, with only some regions experiencing slight price fluctuations due to local supply and demand disturbances.
The main factors currently affecting the development of the domestic ethanol market are as follows:
In terms of cost, corn: as the main raw material for bio fermented ethanol, its price is stable with weak fluctuations, and the purchasing and sales atmosphere at the grassroots level is light. After the new season of corn is launched, the supply is sufficient, and the cost support effect is weakened. Cassava jerky: The supply of cassava ethanol raw materials is tight, prices are running at high levels, production losses continue, and output is limited. The price of ethanol is greatly influenced by the raw material market.

In terms of supply, in recent years, ethanol has become a necessity in people’s daily lives as the main disinfectant, and the proportion of medical alcohol has increased significantly, becoming one of the main uses of ethanol. At present, there is sufficient supply of medical alcohol to meet people’s living needs, and prices are rarely too high in a short period of time due to insufficient supply. In 2025, the total domestic ethanol production capacity will be 18.33 million tons per year (+15.6% compared to 2023), with the increase mainly due to the release of coal to ethanol production capacity, accounting for 21.82% of the total. The production capacity of bio fermented ethanol will remain stable. In terms of production, the cumulative output from January to October was 5.7093 million tons (year-on-year+2.9%), with an average operating rate of 42.77%; In the fourth quarter, the operating rate rebounded and production continued to increase, but the process differentiation was obvious. The increment of coal to ethanol production was significant, and the biological fermentation ethanol was greatly affected by costs and policies. The overall supply had a moderate impact on prices.
In terms of demand, the demand in the chemical industry continues to grow, with the release of new production capacity for downstream products such as ethyl acetate and methyl ethyl carbonate, leading to an increase in ethanol consumption. However, some products are operating under pressure due to cost pressures. The demand in the fuel sector will peak in 2024 and decline in 2025, mainly due to the development of new energy vehicles and policy adjustments, but there is still some support for the promotion of ethanol gasoline in some regions. The demand for Baijiu in the food sector declined slightly, the demand for low alcohol drinks increased, and the overall consumption in the food sector increased steadily. The price of ethanol is influenced by the demand. For example, in the peak consumption season of Baijiu, the price of ethanol will rise significantly.
In terms of imports and exports, data from January to November 2025 shows that at the import end, 775.791 tons of unmodified ethanol were imported (from Georgia, Germany, and South Korea), and 241.72 tons of modified ethanol were imported (from France, Brazil, and the United States); At the export end, 53514.932 tons of unmodified ethanol were exported (to the Philippines, Saudi Arabia and Singapore), and 1889.086 tons of modified ethanol were exported (to South Korea, India and Taiwan, China). Due to the extremely low proportion of total import and export volume in the domestic market supply and demand scale, the ethanol price trend throughout the year is less affected by import and export factors.
Summary: In 2025, both the supply and demand sides of the domestic ethanol market will show weak performance, and prices will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. On the cost side, raw material prices provide certain support for the market; However, the loose supply side pattern continues, coupled with the overall weak downstream demand constraint, the market lacks core upward driving force, and prices have been fluctuating within the range throughout the year, without any trend breakthrough market.

Looking ahead to 2026:
The support on the cost side is expected to weaken. As the Spring Festival approaches, grassroots farmers and traders are constrained by the demand for repayment, and corn is likely to experience phased concentrated selling. The market supply is expected to significantly increase, and the price of raw corn will face downward pressure, which will drive the production cost of ethanol to move downwards, bringing negative impacts to the market from a cost perspective.
The demand side continues to lack driving force, and downstream industries mostly adhere to the principle of rigid procurement and prefer to choose low-priced raw materials for substitution or blending, resulting in a lower acceptance of high priced ethanol. The demand side is difficult to form effective pull and cannot digest the incremental pressure released by the supply side.
There are certain variables in the logistics process, such as severe weather conditions such as winter snowfall that may disrupt the efficiency of logistics transportation in production areas. This not only increases transportation costs, prolongs transportation cycles, and weakens the price competitiveness of ethanol in production areas, but also may temporarily disrupt the shipping rhythm of factories, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the local market.
Overall, under the combined effects of multiple factors such as the expected increase in loose supply, weakened cost support, and sustained weak demand, the ethanol market may show a weak adjustment trend in the new year.

In 2025, the domestic bisphenol A market will exhibit the core characteristics of “weak supply and demand, and difficult cost support”, with price fluctuations and downward trends becoming the main trend; In 2025, the domestic bisphenol A market showed a fluctuating downward trend throughout the year, with only a partial rebound at the end of the year. On January 1st, the market price of bisphenol A was 9537 yuan/ton. As of December 29th, the benchmark price of bisphenol A in Shengyi Society was 7604.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 20% from the beginning of the year. The lowest price reached 7090 yuan/ton during the year, reflecting the core problems of industry supply and demand contradictions and insufficient cost support.

Periodic contraction under overcapacity, overall loose pattern remains unchanged
In 2025, the industry’s operating rate will remain relatively high at around 80%, and the overall market supply will be loose under the background of overcapacity. Although there was a temporary supply contraction at the end of the year (December), resulting in a decrease of about 15% in market supply compared to normal levels and driving a temporary price rebound of 5.93%, this contraction is a short-term maintenance disturbance and cannot change the core pattern of loose supply throughout the year.
Downstream weakness drags down demand, and temporary replenishment is difficult to reverse the decline
The weak performance of the two downstream industries constitutes the core suppression of demand in 2025. On the one hand, the PC industry has been affected by weak exports of electronic appliances and sluggish demand for traditional home appliances, with an annual operating rate of less than 75%. Although the lightweighting of new energy vehicles and the construction of 5G base stations have brought some high-end PC demand growth, it is difficult to hedge the overall demand gap; On the other hand, the epoxy resin industry is facing a dual impact of shrinking demand in the traditional coatings field (from 61% to 39%) and bio based alternative materials. The growth in high-end fields such as wind power and electronic packaging cannot compensate for the decline in the traditional market. Throughout the year, downstream enterprises generally adopted a low inventory strategy, with only a temporary replenishment of orders at the end of the year due to rush work demand, forming a short-term demand pulse. However, terminal consumption did not follow up synchronously, and the market quickly returned to weakness after the replenishment ended, confirming the core characteristic of “weak demand reality”.
Raw material prices hit a five-year low, and the logic of cost support has failed
The weak and volatile trend of the raw material market in 2025 has led to the failure of cost support. Upstream crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, coupled with loose supply and demand in the pure benzene market, driving the prices of phenol and acetone to continue to weaken, with the annual average price falling by more than 10% year-on-year. Although the cost of coal to olefin route is 15% -20% lower than that of petroleum based route, providing a certain cost buffer for domestic enterprises, the overall weakness of the raw material end is transmitted to the bisphenol A link, making it difficult for enterprises to raise prices and further strengthening the downward trend of prices.

Looking at 2026, on the supply side, the concentrated release of new production capacity will further increase supply pressure. Of the 3.8 million tons of bisphenol A production capacity under construction worldwide by 2025, 73% will be located in China, which will drive domestic production capacity to exceed 7 million tons. With the restart of maintenance facilities in Shandong and other areas in January 2026, the market supply will gradually recover, and the supply-demand mismatch pattern is expected to improve. However, the concentrated release of new production capacity will further intensify industry competition. It is expected that the industry operating rate will fall to around 75% by 2026, and the loose supply pattern will continue. At the same time, top enterprises will further squeeze the market share of small and medium-sized production capacity by leveraging their technological advantages (such as ionic liquid catalyst technology, which reduces single ton energy consumption by 19%) and cost advantages, and industry concentration is expected to increase.
In terms of demand, the performance of bisphenol A demand side in 2026 will depend on the pace of macroeconomic recovery and the expansion speed of downstream high-end fields. In the short term, after the decline in demand for year-end replenishment, demand may return to weakness in the first quarter of 2026; In the medium term, if real estate policies are relaxed and electronic and electrical exports recover, it will drive marginal improvement in demand for epoxy resin and traditional PC. In the long run, the high-end sector remains the core driving force for demand growth: the lightweighting of new energy vehicles is driving the demand for modified PCs, with an expected annual increase of 120000 tons; The construction of 5G base stations has driven a surge in demand for low dielectric constant PC materials; The application growth rate of medical grade PCs in disposable blood oxygen sensors and other fields has reached 23%. In addition, the expansion of demand in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia may provide some support for domestic bisphenol A exports
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the core contradiction in the bisphenol A market in 2026 is still the game of “overcapacity and insufficient demand recovery”, and the market is likely to show a trend of “weak first, stable later, and fluctuating adjustment”: in the first quarter, prices may return to low levels due to the impact of supply recovery and weak demand; 2、 If the marginal improvement in downstream demand occurs in the third quarter, it may drive a temporary rebound in prices; The fourth quarter may be affected by factors such as year-end replenishment, fluctuations in raw material prices, or short-term market disturbances. The price center for the whole year may slightly decrease compared to 2025, with a focus on fluctuations within the range of 7000-8000 yuan/ton. In the later stage, we need to focus on three aspects: first, the production progress of new production capacity exceeds expectations, leading to a significant increase in supply pressure; Secondly, the macroeconomic recovery did not meet expectations, and downstream demand remained weak; The third is the impact of sudden factors such as geopolitical conflicts and intensified environmental policies on the market.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued its previous downward trend, with a sluggish market performance. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province fell by 2.05% this week (12.22-26). The main reason is the abundant supply of ammonia, which affects market circulation due to rainy and snowy weather in the north. In addition, local environmental inspections still play a role. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2300-2500 yuan/ton.
In terms of supply, this week’s supply continued to increase compared to last week. The production of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei regions did not decrease, while the supply of equipment in Central China resumed, resulting in an increase in ammonia supply. Due to the impact of snow in some parts of the northern region, transportation is restricted, resulting in the accumulation of inventory in enterprise warehouses. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some companies in northern regions have made downward adjustments, with the magnitude deepening compared to last week. Large factories in Shandong region generally adjust prices between 100-150 yuan, indicating an oversupply in the market. Enterprises still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage, and the supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side perspective, downstream demand has been sluggish, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Recently, the shipment volume of urea has remained stable, although there is still an upward trend, the increase has significantly narrowed, but the price has not continued to rise near the weekend. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase of urea is 0.14%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, mainly due to the impact of the expected resumption of plant work, and there are still supply risks in the market. Combined with the current off-season for agricultural demand, the downstream operating rate is slowly declining, and the market for feed ammonia may not improve. There may still be room for decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 1190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.03% compared to the same period last year. On December 24th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 78.98, unchanged from yesterday and hitting a historic low for the cycle, a decrease of 66.51% from the highest point of 235.84 on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week is 1258 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend is 1252 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.6% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand.
Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been consolidating in recent times. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand for baking soda, and demand enthusiasm is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.