Overall trend: first skyrocketing, then falling, and then moderately recovering
In March, the domestic dichloromethane market presented a typical “roller coaster” trend, which can be divided into three stages:
Early March: Rapid growth period. Affected by the surge in methanol and liquid chlorine raw materials, the cost side has been strongly driven, and the dichloromethane market has rapidly risen, with prices pushing up to 3265 yuan/ton, a stage increase of 86.04%, becoming the core surge stage of this month’s market.
Mid March: High level decline period. After the price rose to a high level, downstream and traders were cautious about accepting orders from high priced sources, resulting in a significant increase in inventory pressure for enterprises. Due to the decline in liquid chlorine prices and the weakening of methanol, cost support has loosened, forcing companies to lower prices and reduce inventory. As of March 20th, the price has fallen to 2175 yuan/ton, with a drop of about 33.38% from the high point.
Late March: Mild recovery period. With the wide rise of methanol and liquid chlorine, cost support has once again strengthened, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. The price of dichloromethane has slightly rebounded after hitting bottom.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2385 yuan/ton. Driven by the continuous cost side, the market surged 35.9% compared to the beginning of the month, but due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the market fell 7.38% year-on-year, reflecting the core contradiction of “strong cost support and obvious demand drag” in the current market.
Cost aspect: The fluctuation of raw materials is severe, leading the market trend
Liquid chlorine: The liquid chlorine market in Shandong region surged in the first half of the year, fluctuated at a high level in the middle, fell back and gradually stabilized in the second half, showing a violent wave dynamic trend. Its trend is highly synchronized with the dichloromethane market and is the key cost variable that triggered the “roller coaster” trend of dichloromethane this month.
Methanol: Affected by the Middle East conflict, Iran’s import expectations have tightened, and the domestic methanol market has fluctuated upwards, pushing up production costs. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of methanol on March 24th was 3170 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 44.09% compared to early March, providing strong cost support for the recovery market of dichloromethane in the latter half of the month.
Supply and demand side: coexistence of loose supply and weak demand
Export obstruction and inventory pressure: Due to shipping disruptions, delays in shipping schedules, and other issues, export orders from the Middle East have significantly decreased, causing the return of goods originally intended for export to the domestic market, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate, leading to a decrease in market trading enthusiasm.
Supply is stable with an increase: Some enterprises in the region have both reduced and increased their equipment load, and the overall operating rate remains at around 80%. At present, with the gradual resumption of production of the equipment, the market supply is showing a stable and upward trend.
Demand recovery falls short of expectations: downstream industries such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and solvents have not seen a significant increase in demand, which has not met previous market expectations. Terminal enterprises generally adopt a cautious strategy of “purchasing as needed and buying as needed”, resulting in a sluggish overall market transaction performance.

Future outlook:
Looking ahead to April, the dichloromethane market is expected to continue a wide range of volatile patterns, with mixed long and short factors:
Cost support still exists but there is a high risk of fluctuation: methanol prices remain high under the expectation of import volume reduction, forming bottom support for the market; However, as a key variable, if the subsequent supply recovery leads to a price drop, liquid chlorine will directly weaken the cost driving force of dichloromethane.
The supply-demand contradiction needs to be alleviated: on the supply side, with the resumption of equipment production, the market supply is sufficient; On the demand side, it is necessary to focus on the stocking pace of downstream industries. If there is insufficient follow-up on demand, high inventory pressure may force companies to make concessions again.
Market mentality cautious: After experiencing significant fluctuations this month, traders and downstream users have a strong risk aversion and less speculative demand. In the short term, the market will repeatedly play a game between cost support and weak demand, and it is expected that prices will show a periodic rebound followed by a volatile consolidation trend. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in raw material prices and downstream procurement rhythms.

In mid to late March, the domestic epoxy propane market showed an upward trend, characterized by a rapid and significant increase, mainly driven by factors such as cost push and supply contraction. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 11466.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.33% compared to March 1.
Raw material side: Propylene is the most essential direct raw material for epichlorohydrin. Affected by supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts and supported by crude oil costs, propylene prices remain high and firm. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 8574.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.74% compared to the beginning of this month (6411.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Since mid March, some epoxy propane units in northern regions have experienced fluctuations; Expected maintenance of some PDH devices; The above factors have led to a reduction in the spot circulation of epichlorohydrin and a tightening of market supply. Faced with the dual pressure of cost and supply, epoxy propane production enterprises actively raise their ex factory prices. Taking Binhua Group as an example, on March 23rd, there was a significant increase of 1100 yuan/ton, and the final quotation reached 11600 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: In the second half of March, the soft foam and hard foam polyether markets passively rose with raw materials. As of March 20th, the price of hard foam polyether in North China reached 10000-11000 yuan/ton, but there was little change in the operation of polyether factories, mainly focusing on delivering early orders. With the rapid rise in epoxy propane prices, downstream enterprises have shown obvious resistance to high priced raw materials, resulting in a stalemate in on-site negotiations, limited follow-up on new orders, and increased pressure on some merchants to ship, leading to frequent occurrences of low-priced sources.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the price of propylene on the raw material side will rise, coupled with sudden shutdowns and low load operations of the equipment, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods, and the cost side will still maintain strong support. However, downstream demand has insufficient acceptance of high priced raw materials, weak willingness to chase after high prices, and limited follow-up on new orders. It is expected that the domestic epoxy propane market will remain stable with a moderate to strong consolidation and operation in the near future. The future market trend requires close attention to the restart progress of large-scale facilities such as Sinochem Quanzhou, as well as the actual sustainability of the “rush to export” of polyether.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased. As of the weekend, the average price of fluorite in China was 3481.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from the beginning of the week price of 3468.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.78%.
Supply side: Multiple factors affecting the tightness of fluorite spot prices
1. The resumption of mining production falls short of expectations, and the operating rate in the main production areas is sluggish
Recently, the overall resumption progress of domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants has been slow, and the core production areas in the north are constrained by both weather and policies, resulting in a much lower operating load than the same period in previous years. As the main production area of fluorite in China, Inner Mongolia was still affected by low temperature weather in early March, which hindered mining and transportation. In addition, during the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, safety and environmental protection inspections were intensified, and some small and medium-sized mines were shut down for rectification, resulting in limited release of compliant production capacity; Although production areas such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian in the south are gradually resuming work, they are constrained by tight raw ore supply and slow improvement in the operating rate of beneficiation plants, making it difficult to make up for the supply gap in the north. The overall operating rate of fluorite in the country remains low, and the spot output is lower than market expectations.
2. Normalization of industry regulation and continuous clearance of existing production capacity
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions has further compressed the market circulation of goods. Manufacturers’ inventories are generally at a low level, and traders have limited stock reserves and extremely low willingness to sell at low prices, forming a market pattern of “less goods, higher prices”.
3. Limited import supplementation makes it difficult to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
Although the domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%, the supply of overseas sources has also been tight recently, and there has been no significant increase in import volume. Due to transportation and production capacity limitations, major import sources such as Mongolia have received less fluorite than expected, and import costs remain high, making it difficult to effectively supplement the domestic spot shortage, further exacerbating the domestic supply shortage and supporting the strengthening of domestic trade prices.
Demand side: downstream fluorine chemical industry recovery requires urgent support gradually emerging
1. Hydrofluoric acid market rebounds, driving demand for raw material procurement
The downstream anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market is strengthening synchronously, with mainstream delivery prices rising to 12500-13000 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have restarted their facilities and their operating rates have rebounded, leading to an increase in the demand for fluorite raw materials. Although hydrofluoric acid enterprises have been affected by the price increase of sulfuric acid and other auxiliary materials, their profit margins have been compressed, and they tend to purchase high priced fluorite rationally. However, the demand for stocking during peak seasons is gradually released, and the trading center of fluorite is steadily shifting upwards under the support of essential needs. Downstream price increases are further transmitted to the upstream raw material end.

2. The implementation of refrigerant quotas and the expected increase in stocking during peak seasons
The refrigerant quota policy will be officially implemented in 2026, further increasing industry concentration and orderly release of production capacity by top enterprises. Coupled with the approaching summer air conditioning refrigeration peak season, refrigerant products will increase in price comprehensively. Downstream refrigerant companies will stock up in advance, driving the demand for hydrofluoric acid and fluorite in the upstream to warm up. At the same time, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow. The growth rate of demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, fluorine-containing polymers and other products is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices.
Market forecast: The tight supply-demand balance in the domestic fluorite market is difficult to change, and prices still have upward momentum. On the supply side, weather and policy controls in northern production areas will continue, making it difficult to accelerate the resumption of mining production in the short term, and the low inventory pattern will continue; On the demand side, with the rise in temperature, the downstream fluorine chemical production rate will further increase, and the demand for stocking during peak season will continue to be released. Cost and emotional support are still present, and it is expected that the price of fluorite will maintain a strong oscillation trend, and some high-grade source quotations are expected to further rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a fluctuating trend recently. As of March 17th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 155000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.12% compared to the same period last week (March 10th), a month on month increase of 6.9%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%.
Inventory side: Low inventory supports firm prices
The industry’s inventory remains low and the trend of destocking is clear. Statistics show that spot inventory of lithium carbonate has dropped to a temporary low, with smelter inventory reaching a nearly three-year low and downstream stocking also at a low level. The low inventory pattern significantly narrows the downward space for prices, providing strong support for lithium prices.
Supply side: Frequent disturbances both domestically and internationally
The impact of the Spring Festival holiday is gradually subsiding, and domestic lithium salt enterprises have generally resumed production, resulting in a significant rebound in the overall production schedule of the industry.
However, the supply elasticity of the industry is still constrained by multiple factors: on the one hand, the progress of domestic core lithium resource resumption is not as expected; On the other hand, there has been a sudden change in the policies of key lithium resource countries overseas, which has caused significant disruptions to the supply chain. The country recently announced a suspension of all lithium concentrate exports to promote localized processing of lithium resources. Although other major exporting countries have increased their exports of lithium concentrate to China on a month on month basis, to some extent filling the supply gap, the fragility of the global lithium supply chain has been further highlighted.
Demand side: Energy storage becomes the core growth engine of demand
The downstream has entered the traditional production peak season, and the production scheduling data has shown impressive performance. On March 16th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the operation of the national economy in January and February 2026. At the meeting, it was stated that the production of lithium-ion batteries for energy storage increased by 84% from January to February. The demand for energy storage is growing rapidly. Although the sales of new energy vehicles have fluctuated due to seasonal factors in the early stage, the production of power batteries has shown a significant seasonal recovery, providing solid support for overall demand.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the explosive growth of energy storage demand has become a deterministic trend, while global lithium resource supply continues to be constrained by multiple factors such as geopolitics, environmental protection, and industrial policies. The lithium carbonate market is gradually shifting from a loose pattern in the early stage to a tight balance in the medium to long term, and the price center is receiving strong support. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2595 yuan/ton to around 2832 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.15% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 28.65%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.77%. The domestic methanol market trading is still mainly influenced by geopolitics, and the rising sentiment on the futures side is gradually transmitted to the spot market; Supported by the continuous destocking of enterprises, the increasing demand for locally sourced olefins, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, methanol prices have shown a significant surge.

As of the close on March 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 2754 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2887 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2723 yuan/ton. It closed at 2805 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 2171545, the position is 584205, and the daily increase is 13631.
On the cost side, downstream coal enterprises have resumed work and production one after another, and demand expectations have increased. Market prices are mainly stable. The cost impact is mixed.
On the demand side, the downstream end is affected by the sharp rise in raw material methanol, and the prices of various downstream products are rising accordingly. Currently, the profitability is quite considerable, MTO、 The profit growth of the acetic acid and methane chloride industries is the most significant. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
Supply side, extended device maintenance; Some devices have been restored; The overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. Recently, there has been an increase in methanol recovery facilities and a decrease in maintenance and production reduction facilities, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on March 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $494-496 per ton, up $39.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 106-108 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 380-382 euros/ton, up 13 euros/ton.
The future forecast shows that the expected import volume will decrease in the near future, and the performance of upstream destocking will be affected, but the overall destocking intensity is weaker than expected. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be mainly dominated by strong consolidation.

Since March 2026, the domestic bisphenol A market has broken the stable pattern and started an explosive upward trend, with prices soaring for 9 days, showing a rare trend of “one price per day”.

1、 Market situation: price ladder like surge, astonishing increase
Since March, the price of bisphenol A has risen in a stepped manner, with the increase continuing to expand.
According to data from Shengyi Society, the market price was about 8070 yuan/ton on March 1st. Subsequently, mainstream manufacturers raised their prices one after another: on March 3rd, it rose to 9000 yuan/ton, on March 5th it reached 9200 yuan/ton, on March 6th it broke through 10500 yuan/ton, and on March 9th it rose to 14800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 83.39% compared to March 1st. The market presents a pattern of “tight supply and traders reluctant to sell”, further promoting price increases.
The price increase this time is the result of the resonance of three factors: cost, supply, and market sentiment, jointly driving the explosive rise in prices.
（1） Cost side: Crude oil drives a surge in raw materials, laying a solid foundation for price increases
The production of bisphenol A relies on phenol and acetone, and their prices are closely related to international crude oil. In March, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, with crude oil operating at high levels, driving up raw material prices. Phenol and acetone saw significant increases, pushing up the production cost of bisphenol A and forcing companies to raise their quotes.
（2） Supply side: Large factories raising prices+insufficient production, continuous tightening of spot goods
The mainstream bisphenol A enterprises are collectively raising prices, coupled with low operating loads and low inventory levels, resulting in tight spot supply. Most companies prioritize delivering to long-term contract customers, while traders hold onto their goods and hesitate to sell, further exacerbating the supply gap and supporting price increases.
（3） Market side: Panic spreads, amplifying price increases
The situation in the Middle East has raised concerns in the market about the obstruction of raw material imports, and panic has spread, compounded by the mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”. Traders are reluctant to sell, and downstream demand is passively following suit, forming a cycle of price increases and amplifying the gains.
The transmission of the industrial chain is prominent, and the pressure on upstream and downstream is obvious
The price increase of bisphenol A has a profound impact on the chemical industry chain, with a sharp increase in downstream cost pressure and a clear transmission effect. The production costs of downstream enterprises such as epoxy resin and polycarbonate have significantly increased, squeezing profits. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have reduced production capacity and suspended procurement; The price increase is gradually transmitted to the terminal industry, and some companies have issued price increase letters, highlighting the pressure on terminal prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 2nd to 6th, the domestic BDO price rose from 7371 yuan/ton to 7557 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.52% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 2.72%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.07%. The supply of goods has decreased, while the overall downstream demand has increased. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and other factors, other raw materials have surged, driving downstream industries to rise. Moreover, online bidding at a premium has driven the BDO market to bottom out and rebound, with suppliers showing a strong market sentiment.

In terms of supply and equipment, regardless of the BDO equipment being shut down for maintenance or replacement, the supply of goods has decreased and the support on the supply side has been strengthened. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The calcium carbide market is experiencing a rapid decline, and production companies are actively shipping. Some companies have accumulated inventory and flexible transactions. Raw material methanol: The methanol market has surged significantly. As of 10:00 am on March 2nd, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2520 yuan/ton. The weak market for raw material calcium carbide and the rising market for methanol have had a mixed impact on the cost of BDO.
Demand side, downstream industry. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), downstream factories will gradually resume work, and the demand side will start to work on an overall basis, increasing the digestion of raw materials. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, the supply-demand gap will continue to narrow, supporting the supply side’s support for the market mentality, and the market will slightly fluctuate strongly. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is expected to rebound and consolidate.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has seen a significant increase in recent times. As of March 4th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 5962.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.50% from 5300 yuan/ton on March 1st.

Supply side: Recently, the market for maleic anhydride has continued to rise significantly: the transaction price of Wanhua Auction in East China has continued to rise to 6120-6130 yuan/ton, with a three-day increase of 1140-1150 yuan/ton. The transaction situation is good, supporting the maleic anhydride market, and the prices of the main factories for maleic anhydride have continued to rise significantly. As of March 4th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong is around 6200 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6000 yuan/ton.
Upstream: The Saudi CP price remained stable at $540/ton in March, but due to the expected closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sea transportation is affected, and the supply of imported liquefied petroleum gas may become tight. Considering the soaring freight and insurance costs, the actual landed cost of Saudi CP is moving away from paper calculations, and long-term expectations are still rising. Domestic n-butane prices have risen to 5350 yuan/ton.
Downstream: Recently, the unsaturated resin market has risen, mainly due to the significant increase in raw material styrene and maleic anhydride, supported by the cost of unsaturated resin, and the gradual resumption of work and centralized replenishment by end users, which has supported the unsaturated resin market; But some downstream enterprises have stocked up before the holiday, and procurement is mainly focused on maintaining essential needs.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that in the short term, the maleic anhydride market may continue to rise due to the continued impact of geopolitical risk premiums, the strong push up of cost corrected butane, and the resumption of work of downstream unsaturated resins, which are the main players.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash fell in February. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1208 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1188 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 20 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.66%.
2、 Market analysis
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market experienced a weak downward trend in February. In terms of supply, the operating rate of soda ash plants has not changed much and continues to operate at a high level. The market supply is sufficient, and there is significant inventory pressure on enterprises. In order to promote the downward shift of soda ash prices before the holiday; In terms of demand, the glass industry’s production lines have undergone cold repairs, resulting in a decrease in production. Additionally, many companies have consumed inventory, which has weakened support for soda ash. As a result, both supply and demand in the market have weakened, leading to a continued decline in soda ash prices during the month.
As of February 28, 2026, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1120-1560 yuan/ton, in Central China it is around 1100-1200 yuan/ton, and in North China it is around 1200-1270 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have been running strongly this month, with the average glass market price increasing from 13.10 yuan/square meter to 13.38 yuan/square meter, an overall increase of 2.14%. During the month, some glass production lines underwent cold repairs, leading to a decrease in industry operating rates. Downstream procurement followed suit as needed, and the market trading atmosphere remained positive. The mentality of enterprises also increased, resulting in a narrow increase in glass prices.
Market forecast: Currently, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, the market inventory pressure is high, and downstream production is not high, which has limited support for soda ash. The short-term soda ash market will continue to be weak, and some companies have maintenance plans in March, which may provide support for price increases. It is expected that the soda ash market will fluctuate and consolidate in the future, depending on downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12883 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12933/ton, with a price increase of 0.39%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have provided strong quotes this month. The ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon (iodine value 1000) is between 11500-13500 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex factory price including tax is about 9500 yuan/ton for iodine value 800, and 9800-10200 yuan/ton for iodine value 900. In traditional fields such as water treatment, air purification, and gold extraction, the demand for coconut shell activated carbon is still strong, and downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to purchase high-quality coconut shell activated carbon.
Starting from January 1, 2026, the global shipping policy for coconut shell carbonized materials will undergo a fundamental change: coconut shell carbonized materials must be declared as dangerous goods for transportation, new regulations will cancel exemptions, and Chinese coconut shell activated carbon enterprises will soon face rising costs and compliance challenges. Due to factors such as tight raw material supply, rising costs, and stable demand, the activated carbon market may continue to operate at a high level.
Prediction: Domestic demand for coconut shell activated carbon is expected to rebound, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.