According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 13th to 20th, the domestic ethanol price fell to 5575 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.33% during the period, a month on month drop of 2.19%, and a year-on-year drop of 6.81%. The domestic ethanol market prices are running weakly, and factories have a positive attitude towards shipment, resulting in a decrease in quotations.

In terms of cost, the overall decline in corn prices is the main factor. The futures market has fallen, and market sentiment has changed. Port traders have lowered their quotes by 20-30 yuan, and the speed of port pickup is average. The downstream procurement mentality is cautious, and the overall focus is on consuming inventory. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is little fluctuation in the production of edible ethanol. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, from the demand side, the downstream Baijiu and chemical end have entered the traditional off-season, the demand for some chemical exports has improved, and the consumer side is expected to narrow down. Negative factors affecting ethanol demand.
The future forecast shows that the supply side will continue to increase, and the price of ethanol will be under pressure from the supply-demand game, with a mainly oscillating downward trend. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market will mainly operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash continued to decline this week. As of August 18th, the average market price of soda ash was 1224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared to the price of 1252 yuan/ton on August 11th, a decrease of 2.24%.
2、 Market analysis
Recently, the soda ash market has been operating weakly. The number of supply side maintenance enterprises has decreased, the production of soda ash has increased, and manufacturers are actively shipping; The downstream demand performance is mediocre. Due to the continued weakness of glass prices, the market’s enthusiasm for purchasing soda ash is not high, and soda ash enterprises have accumulated inventory. The market supply is strong and demand is weak, and soda ash prices continue to decline. On August 18th, the price of light soda ash in East China was reduced by 10 yuan/ton, with a price range of 1130-1400 yuan/ton; The price of light soda ash in central China remains at 1140-1300 yuan/ton.
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market continues to decline. From August 11th to 18th, the price of glass decreased from 15.05 yuan/square meter to 14.28 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 5.12%. The glass market has stable production capacity, continuous inventory increase, average downstream demand follow-up, slow glass destocking, poor enterprise shipments, and a weak downward trend in glass prices.
Future forecast: Currently, the price trend of soda ash is downward, and the mentality of industry players is bearish. In terms of inventory, manufacturers have limited shipments and accumulated inventory. The downstream market is weak, and there is insufficient support for soda ash. It is expected that the soda ash market will mainly operate weakly in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up situations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 15th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1762 yuan/ton, which is 1.67% lower than the reference average price of 1792 yuan/ton on August 10th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market prices have weakened and fallen. This week, the urea futures market prices have been weak and declining, and the spot market has followed the trend of the futures market to weaken. As of August 15th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1680-1780 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1700-1780 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1650-1750 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1740 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1760 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic urea market is experiencing oversupply. On the supply side, during the maintenance of some urea plants this week, the daily production has decreased, but the market supply is still sufficient. In terms of demand, the agricultural demand for urea in autumn has entered the off-season, and downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers urgently need to purchase.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has been weak and declining recently. At present, the inventory of urea market is still high, downstream demand is poor, and procurement enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that in the short term, domestic urea prices will mainly experience a weak downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 11th to 15th, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 157160 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.53% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 9.24%. The factory started production steadily within the week, and the market transaction price slightly loosened. The transaction atmosphere is average, with many small and single households, and there is no change in the news coverage. Under the market supply and demand game, the aggregated MDI market fluctuates narrowly.
On the supply side, the maintenance of the 80000 ton/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an will begin on July 23rd and is expected to last for about 35 days.

In terms of cost, the raw material pure benzene has slightly increased recently, while the price of aniline has remained stable this week, with limited impact on the polymerization of MDI.
On the demand side, downstream demand is average, the trading atmosphere is quiet, and transactions are mainly small orders.
Future forecast: The current transaction price of the aggregated MDI market is loose, and the focus is shifting downwards. With no obvious positive news to boost the market, it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Price trend: High supply collides with weak demand, and the downward trend continues (8.8-8.14)
The supply side is loose, demand performance is mediocre, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen. On site inventory is under pressure, and companies are forced to lower prices to reduce inventory. Currently, the market is weakly stable and consolidating. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 14th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 2040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69% during the week and a year-on-year drop of 27.14%.

analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: High operating rate, inventory pressure
The on-site supply is loose, and the overall operating rate of methane chloride plants in the industry has risen to around 85%, a high in the past six months. Downstream procurement is weak, and companies are reducing prices to reduce inventory. Currently, the pressure on manufacturers’ inventory is slightly easing.
Cost side: methanol drops, liquid chlorine rises, insufficient cost support
Due to the accumulation of methanol in ports and weak demand, the market fluctuated weakly during the week. As of August 14th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2373.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% during the cycle. Downstream demand for liquid chlorine has improved, with a slight increase in prices, but limited support for dichloromethane.
On the demand side: seasonal suppression, with rigid procurement as the main focus
From August to September, the production scale of the air conditioning industry decreased to around 12 million units on a month on month basis. The pre-sales demand for refrigerants R32 and R410A was reduced in the short term, and procurement was cautious. Due to the summer maintenance of enterprises, demand for pharmaceutical and pesticide solvents has contracted in the short term. The adhesive industry has been dragged down by the construction industry, resulting in a year-on-year decline in orders. Overall demand in August may be weaker than in July. Under the expectation of the “Golden September” peak season, the willingness of enterprises to stock up has increased, providing strong support for the dichloromethane market.
Future prospects
If the demand is difficult to improve, the price may hit bottom again and explore the 2000 yuan/ton mark. If supply tightens or exports increase, the market may rebound slightly.

This week, the overall market for acrylic acid and its esters in East China showed a weak consolidation trend, with prices of various products generally slightly declining, reflecting the current situation of weak demand and insufficient trading activity in the market. As of August 11th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.77% compared to the beginning of this month (6650.00 yuan/ton). This was mainly due to the low purchasing willingness of downstream terminals and the light trading atmosphere in the market. In order to promote transactions, holders had to lower their offer focus.

Demand side:
From the perspective of segmented products, the ester market has weakened across the board: methyl acrylate (6900 yuan/ton), ethyl ester (9400 yuan/ton), and butyl ester (7000 yuan/ton) have all experienced a decline of about 50 yuan/ton, with isooctyl ester experiencing a more significant decline (8150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton), indicating limited acceptance of high priced raw materials by the terminal industry, especially in the butyl ester market, which is showing a bearish trend. Downstream only maintains essential procurement, and the strong market wait-and-see sentiment has led to a continuous shift in the focus of negotiations.
It is worth noting that the market performance of methyl acrylic acid is relatively strong, with prices stable at 10550 yuan/ton, and high-end quotations even slightly rising to 10600 yuan/ton. However, actual transaction follow-up is limited, and terminal factory procurement is still mainly based on demand, reflecting that the supply and demand structure of this variety has not yet clearly deteriorated. The market of pure acrylic lotion also remained stable at 6200 yuan/ton, which may be related to the phased stability of demand in downstream coating and other industries.
The main pressure facing the current acrylic acid industry chain comes from the demand side: on the one hand, the traditional off-season combined with insufficient operating rates in some end industries makes it difficult to release actual transaction volume; On the other hand, the fluctuation of raw material propylene prices and the uncertainty of the crude oil market further exacerbate the market’s wait-and-see mentality. In the short term, it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations. If there is no significant increase in demand or cost support in the future, prices may continue to operate weakly.
Supply side:
As of August 11th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6453.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% compared to the beginning of this month (6433.25 yuan/ton). Although the price slightly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere was weak. Downstream factories have limited acceptance of high priced raw materials and a slower procurement pace, which has put pressure on production companies to ship. Some manufacturers have made small concessions to promote transactions. At present, the market supply and demand pattern is slightly loose, coupled with the weakening of some downstream derivatives (such as PP, PO, etc.), further suppressing the release of propylene demand.
The current acrylic acid market maintains a weak pattern, with a light trading atmosphere and actual transaction prices moving towards the low-end range. Downstream users have insufficient purchasing enthusiasm and tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The market lacks strong support and may continue to be weak in the short term.
The butyl acrylate market is also under pressure, with mediocre performance on the demand side, downstream enterprises only maintaining essential replenishment, cautious inquiries when entering the market, and a bearish market mentality. Although traders intend to maintain stable quotes, there are still signs of loosening in the focus of negotiations due to weak transactions.

Overall, it is expected that the acrylic acid market in East China will continue to consolidate weakly next week, with limited room for price fluctuations; The butyl acrylate market may maintain a volatile trend, and there is a possibility of local downturns under the supply-demand game. It is recommended to closely monitor the changes in raw material propylene prices and the recovery of downstream demand to determine the next direction of the market.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased. As of the weekend, the average price of fluorite in China was 3156.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% from the early week price of 3150 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.71%.

Supply side: The mine is operating normally, and the supply of fluorite is normal
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. However, with the rise of temperature, northern enterprises are operating normally, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field has not changed much. The lack of active procurement has led to relatively normal spot prices in the field. Some fluorite manufacturers have appropriate inventory, and some manufacturers have obvious intentions to raise prices, resulting in a slight increase in.
Demand side: Low price of hydrofluoric acid, acceptable refrigerant market
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid remained low, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 9800-10300 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not actively purchasing raw fluorite, and downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Both buyers and sellers have weak expectations for the future due to poor demand digestion. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers in August has declined, and the price increase of fluorite is not significant due to this news.
The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the refrigerant industry is making efforts in terminal policies. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of purchasing at high prices is relatively slow, but the industry’s inventory is transmitted in a positive and orderly manner, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market has risen, and the fluorite market has slightly increased.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, and demand has not actually increased. In addition, the hydrofluoric acid market remains low, and there is a strong resistance to high priced fluorite. Overall, the fluorite market price is mainly fluctuating in the short term.

The domestic phenol market fluctuated within a range in July. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the domestic phenol market price on July 1st was 6680 yuan/ton, and on July 31st it was 6667 yuan/ton. The lowest price in the East China market dropped to 6500 yuan/ton.

In the first ten days, traders considered factors such as high average prices and limited willingness to lower their prices, resulting in overall high quotes. However, terminal factories were difficult to be stimulated and offered at low levels. Some traders tentatively offered lower prices. Around mid month, the inventory at Jiangyin Port rapidly declined, boosting the confidence of traders and leading to an increase in orders without pressure. However, downstream demand still needs to follow up, and the participation of intermediate traders is limited. In the latter half of the year, with the interweaving of cost and supply and demand pressures, the market entered a trend of decline and rise. Overall, downstream participation was limited, and there was a lack of demand to follow up, resulting in a light trading atmosphere.
In July, the 320000 tons/year phenol ketone plant at Yangzhou Shiyou was shut down for maintenance from June 13th to July 10th; Hengli Petrochemical will shut down for maintenance from July 21st to 27th; Guangxi Huayi will stop for maintenance from July 25th to 27th; The Shanghai Xisa plant stopped briefly on July 28th for a 3-day maintenance.
As of July 31st, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region. Quotation on July 31st /Price fluctuations in July
East China region / 6620./ 50
Shandong region / 6700./ -100
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain / 6700./ -100
South China region / 6650./ 0
Business Society expects that Yangzhou Shiyou will resume production in terms of equipment and Zhenhai will refine products. The domestic supply is expected to increase compared to July, with an estimated monthly output of 500000 tons. In terms of ports, the expected replenishment of ocean going cargo contracts will decrease, and there will be little pressure on the ports. Continuing to monitor the impact of crude oil on pure benzene, downstream phenolic resin is in a relatively low season, while other industries remain stable. Overall, the phenol market is mixed with both positive and negative factors, with frequent market fluctuations and a price range of 6500-6750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament fell and rebounded in July. As of July 31st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, POY (150D/48F), quoted at 6600-6800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7800-8050 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6900-7200 yuan/ton.

price trend
In the first half of July, the production and sales of polyester filament remained at 30-50%. The effect of enterprises offering discounts on shipments was not good, and inventory continued to increase while prices declined. In the middle and late of the month, downstream users concentrated on replenishing warehouses, resulting in increased production and sales. The effect of enterprises reducing inventory was good, and the focus of transactions fluctuated upwards.
Cost end
The price of raw materials has a significant impact on polyester filament. In the first half of the month, the narrow range fluctuation support of crude oil was limited. As of July 30th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% from the beginning of the month.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the leading polyester filament production enterprises implemented production cuts in July, and coupled with the pressure of inventory in the early stage, the subsequent operating load of the enterprises is expected to continue to decrease, which has eased the supply pressure to some extent. In terms of demand, in the first half of the year, the effect of companies offering discounts on shipments was poor, cash flow was compressed, and manufacturers began to sell at low prices, resulting in relatively firm quotes. Starting from the middle of the month, although July is generally in the off-season, the concentrated replenishment behavior downstream has led to an increase in production and sales of polyester filament, a decrease in inventory, and an increase in prices. The effect of enterprise destocking has been good, and the willingness to support the market has increased, which has also played a driving role in the price increase.
Future forecast
According to Business News, under the atmosphere of macroeconomic sentiment recovery at the end of the month, the buying sentiment was stimulated, and the demand side increased slightly, causing prices to fluctuate upwards. In the medium to long term, price recovery needs to wait for peak season orders to be fulfilled and tariff risks to become clear,

In July, the domestic fluorite price trend slightly declined. As of the end of the month, the average domestic fluorite price was 3137.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% from the beginning of the month at 3706.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%.

Supply side: Start production to maintain normal spot supply of fluorite
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. However, with the rise of temperature, northern enterprises are gradually starting production, and the supply of fluorite enterprises on site has increased. The lack of active procurement has led to sufficient spot goods on site, and fluorite inventory on site has increased. In July, the fluorite market situation slightly declined.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
In July, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid declined, and the mainstream price negotiated in various regions of China was 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at around 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not actively purchasing raw fluorite, and downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Both buyers and sellers have weak expectations for the future market due to poor demand digestion. The guidance price of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers remained low in August, and the fluorite price market was mainly affected by this news.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal industry is still promising, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up in the terminal industry is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is average, while the fluorite market remains low.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, in some areas, the lack of active fluorite procurement has led to an increase in inventory. In addition, downstream resistance to high prices is severe, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with no actual increase in demand. In addition, the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low. Overall, the fluorite market is mainly volatile in the short term.