At the beginning of the month, the price of 50% potassium sulfate was 3926 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of 50% potassium sulfate was 3750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.50% in price.
This month, the market price of potassium sulfate has been weak, and the autumn base fertilizer has basically ended. The finished product inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises is high, and the average operating rate of the equipment is about 31.02%. The factory mainly delivers preliminary orders and maintains small order procurement for potassium sulfate. There has been no centralized replenishment yet. Domestic potassium shipments are stable, imported potassium continues to arrive at the port, and the market supply is abundant. Although processing potassium sulfate enterprises have lowered their load, the weekly operating rate is still only 29.63%, and the situation of oversupply has not been reversed.
The downward trend in potassium chloride prices has reduced some of the raw material pressure on potassium sulfate; At the same time, the regional price difference of sulfuric acid has widened, and the high priced inventory in the early stage is still being digested. Mannheim Enterprises suffered a comprehensive loss of about 235 yuan/ton, so the manufacturer’s quotation was relatively resistant to decline, but the low-end transaction price continued to loosen.
Prediction: The trading volume of potassium sulfate market is lower than expected, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

On October 27th, the price of isooctanol was 10033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 10.05% compared to the price of 9116.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. Cost push pushed isooctanol unilaterally up to a new high for the year in October. From the holiday to the 10th and 14th, the price of propylene surged, and the cost of isooctanol continued to rise. From the 14th to the 24th, the price of propylene fell, the support for the rise of isooctanol weakened, and the price of isooctanol stabilized; From the 24th to the 27th, the price of propylene rose again, and the price of isooctanol reached a new high.
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises
On October 27th, the propylene price was 10801 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 11.26% compared to the propylene price of 9707.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices in October, which has provided a cost floor for propylene and isooctanol, causing a volatile rise in propylene prices. The rise in costs has led to a significant increase in the price of isooctanol.
Supply side
In October, the overall operating rate of the isooctanol industry was 68% -73%. During the National Day holiday, the operating rate decreased significantly, but slowly resumed after the holiday. During the upward trend, the market briefly traded “overall tight spot supply”; With the increase in the operating rate of isooctanol equipment, the supply of isooctanol is stable. ‘Tightness’ is more of a short-term mismatch based on regional and rhythmic factors, rather than a global shortage. Once the price reaches the downstream tolerance limit and the procurement pace slows down, the support from the supply side will quickly weaken, and the continuous rise of isooctanol will lack sufficient support.
Demand side: Low downstream operating rate, hidden concerns about high price acceptance
The operating rate of DOP devices in October was 45-57%, which is at a medium to low level. The downstream operating rate is also low, and there is insufficient demand follow-up. The increase in DOP is more cost driven than order driven. Plasticizer companies maintain low production and on-demand procurement at high raw material prices, and there is a clear upper limit to their ability to accept further increases in isooctanol. When the price of isooctanol approaches the 10000 yuan mark, downstream resistance will become a hard constraint for the continued upward trend of isooctanol prices.
Outlook for the coming period
Analysts believe that the price of isooctanol is at a new high for the year, but the upward potential is very limited, and there is a high risk of price decline in the future. The rise in isooctanol in October was almost entirely driven by costs, and the demand side increment was insufficient, and the supply side operating rate did not constitute a hard shortage. In the future, the risk return ratio for continuing to chase higher prices in the short term is clearly unfavorable. The expected high volatility of isooctanol prices is weak, and the center of gravity is prone to a slight decline.

Commodity market: In October, the mainstream market for polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ion degree) in China remained stable, with a main market price of around 14080 yuan/ton on the 26th.
The core of polyacrylamide production relies on upstream raw materials such as acrylonitrile. In October, the acrylonitrile market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase. As of October 26, the average price of acrylonitrile was 10900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% from the price of 10783.33 yuan/ton on October 1. This month, changes in the supply and demand of raw materials, as well as the pace of factory shipments, have driven price fluctuations. On site trading has followed the market fluctuations, while downstream demand has mainly followed suit. The market mentality has fluctuated greatly, and the short-term market is still affected by the combination of equipment start-up and downstream procurement pace.
In terms of downstream, the current focus is mainly on environmental protection areas such as sewage treatment and sludge dewatering. Municipal sewage and industrial wastewater treatment enterprises mainly rely on replenishment for urgent needs, with weak willingness to purchase in large quantities. Downstream companies tend to purchase as needed, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and a lack of sustained favorable support for procurement, making it difficult to drive up prices; At the same time, there has been no significant decline in downstream orders, and there is no pressure to force manufacturers to lower prices and sell goods, forming a weak balance between supply and demand.
Market forecast: Currently, domestic polyacrylamide production enterprises have relatively stable operating loads, sufficient supply of spot goods, conservative pricing strategies of mainstream manufacturers, and no willingness to adjust prices at the moment; At the end of the month, the acrylonitrile market stopped falling and rebounded, supported by the cost of polyacrylamide. Overall, it is expected that the domestic cationic polyacrylamide market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in November.

1、 Price trend

This week, the price of bromine has been rising and running in the market. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 40800 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 42200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.43% and a year-on-year increase of 43.05%. On October 22, the bromine index was 148.07, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 39.89% from the highest point of 246.32 points during the cycle (2026-04-07), and up 151.31% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine has been rising and running in the market. The recent price of bromine in Shandong region is around 42000-42500 yuan/ton, and the current price range for bromine shipments is around 42000-42500 yuan/ton. Manufacturers’ inventories are generally low, and there is a clear upward trend in prices. The terminal maintains the strategy of purchasing for essential needs, and the holding merchants have a strong reluctance to sell. The quotation is adjusted upwards according to market transactions. In terms of demand, the downstream flame retardant field still relies mainly on rigid procurement, with insufficient ability to undertake current high priced sources and limited overall enthusiasm for purchasing.
In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have fallen overall this week, with an average market price of 6076.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5714.25 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.97%, a decrease of 2.45% compared to the same period last year, and an increase of 89.36% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain weak. Bromine supply is expected to have low inventory levels in the near future, and downstream demand is expected to purchase on demand. The overall trading atmosphere is bleak, and the overall supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by high fluctuations in bromine prices in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend
On October 22, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province was 3613 yuan/ton, and on October 16, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province was 3656 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate fell by 1.19%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the market for ammonium phosphate continued to weaken and decline. The price of raw material sulfur continues to decline, and cost support is weakening. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, and they mainly purchase raw materials on demand, resulting in limited new market transactions. As of October 22nd, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3580-3680 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 3650-3700 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 3600-3700 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, the sulfur market continued to decline, with weak market transactions and high bearish sentiment. Downstream demand has been released, but transaction prices remain low. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market price will mainly be adjusted and operated in a wait-and-see manner.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been declining recently. The raw material market continues to be weak, with insufficient cost support. The autumn fertilizer market is coming to an end, and the trading atmosphere in the market is not good. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will continue to operate weakly.

In early October, the dichloromethane market continued its upward trend and the price center continued to shift upwards; In mid October, it rose and then consolidated at a high level, followed by a significant decline on October 19-20. The current market has shifted from strong support of “cost+supply” in the early stage to a pullback stage under insufficient high-level demand, and is expected to experience weak fluctuations in the short term. As of October 20th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 3020 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.16% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Core Driving Factors
Cost side:
After the holiday, methanol rose first, and the price of liquid chlorine was also at a high level, driving the rise of dichloromethane. In the middle of the month, methanol quickly plunged from rising to falling; And dichloromethane continues to rise against the trend, indicating that this round of market trend is not solely driven by cost. Methane chloride enterprises face significant cost pressures, with low industry operating loads and tight spot supply. The main driving force behind the market trend is factory control of quantity and price. Recently, the continuous decline of raw material methanol coupled with high prices suppressing downstream demand procurement has made it difficult to sustain high prices, and dichloromethane has entered a phase of correction.
Supply and demand side:
Supply: After the holiday, the industry’s operating load has further decreased compared to the previous period. Low operating hours, combined with pre holiday stocking and post holiday replenishment, have led to rapid consumption of social inventory. Enterprise inventory has generally fallen to a low level, with some areas experiencing tight supply and limited sales, driving the market to continue to rise. But as prices continue to rise, the high price dividend gradually fades away, and the confidence of factories to raise prices loosens.
Demand: Under high prices, downstream procurement attitudes have become noticeably cautious, with more wait-and-see and temporarily not stocking up in large quantities. The company’s shipment volume is lower than expected, and shipping pressure is transmitted from the production end to the trade end. The demand side has limited capacity to undertake, and downstream procurement in the fields of R32 refrigerants, coating adhesives, pharmaceutical solvents, etc. is still mainly based on rigid demand. The production of downstream refrigerants is not high, and the increment is limited under the quota constraints in the fourth quarter; The export increment is limited, and the acceptance of high priced goods by terminals is weak. The transaction atmosphere has not strengthened synchronously.
Future forecast
The short-term market is mainly weak and volatile, and there is room for further downward price exploration. The current downward trend in methanol prices has weakened the cost support force; High prices suppress downstream procurement, and there is a lack of follow-up on demand. Traders are more willing to ship at high prices, and market sentiment is bearish. However, the overall inventory of enterprises is not high, coupled with the expectation of equipment maintenance in November, the space for deep decline is limited, and there is support below.

1、 Price trend

As of October 16th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 50000 yuan/ton. Today, the domestic lithium iron phosphate market maintains structural differentiation, with weak transactions for ordinary low compaction products and price pressure. The supply of high-pressure solid power and long cycle energy storage brands is tight, maintaining a premium. Currently, the mainstream transactions for power type lithium iron phosphate are 52000-55000 yuan/ton, and 51500-53000 yuan/ton for energy storage type. The market is mainly focused on long-term contract order delivery, with few individual transactions. Battery companies maintain on-demand procurement and adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
2、 Market analysis
Operating rate: The industry has obvious differentiation in operating rates, with sufficient orders from top integrated large factories and high operating rates of 85% -92% for equipment. Priority is given to ensuring the production of high-pressure solid and energy storage special materials. Small and medium-sized non integrated enterprises are affected by insufficient orders and profit compression, and operating rates are maintained at a low level of 45% -60%. Some small factories are temporarily reducing loads and conducting maintenance and production control. The overall industry average operating rate is about 70%. At the inventory level, low-end ordinary brand inventory accumulates, and there is a high pressure to reduce inventory. High end high-pressure physical product inventory is low, and delivery cycles are prolonged. There is currently no concentrated release of new production capacity in the short term.
Upstream costs: The core raw material lithium carbonate continues to operate weakly today, with prices falling, weakening the cost support for lithium iron phosphate; The price range of iron phosphate fluctuates, while the supply of raw materials such as phosphate ore and ferrous sulfate is stable with limited fluctuations. Integrated enterprises rely on their own phosphate ore and supporting iron phosphate production lines, with outstanding advantages in raw material costs; Small and medium-sized manufacturers that purchase raw materials for production continue to see their processing profits compressed. Overall, the downward trend in lithium prices has dragged down the overall cost center and loosened the bottom support for iron and lithium. However, there is currently no significant downward space for the phosphorus source end, and a weak balance pattern has formed on the cost end.
In terms of demand: downstream battery industry differentiation, new energy vehicle power batteries: domestic vehicle production is stable, terminal new energy vehicle promotion continues, battery factories mainly consume raw material inventory in the early stage, cautious in new procurement, use as needed, and no centralized replenishment; Overseas power orders remain stable. The energy storage sector is the main increment. Domestic energy storage bidding continues to land, overseas energy storage orders are increasing, and the demand for long cycle energy storage lithium iron phosphate is strong. Top material companies are locking in long-term orders until the following quarters. However, the inventory of battery finished products is high, and battery cell factories have a strong willingness to lower prices, resulting in weak bargaining power for low-end materials. Overall demand presents a pattern of strong energy storage, stable ordinary power, and weak low-end demand.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that in the short term, the structural differentiation of lithium iron phosphate continues, with ordinary grades under pressure and fluctuating. High end energy storage and high-pressure real power materials remain strong. Negative factors include overcapacity at the low-end of the industry, weak lithium carbonate prices dragging down the cost side, and no significant explosion in terminal consumption of power batteries. Battery companies maintain a low inventory strategy, and there is significant resistance to the upward trend of ordinary grade prices.

As of October 14th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 8233.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% from the high price of 8466.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, isobutyraldehyde fell back from a high level, shifting from a strong rally in September to a fluctuating and weakening pattern; The stable operation of the supply side equipment has put pressure on the profit of downstream neopentyl glycol, and the procurement trend is becoming cautious, which belongs to the market of loose supply and weak demand, and the price center is slowly shifting downwards.
Demand side: downstream weakness, obvious purchasing resistance
The largest downstream consumption is neopentyl glycol. The traditional peak season margin of neopentyl glycol downstream is weakening, and the terminal coating orders are average, resulting in compressed profits for neopentyl glycol products. The production of neopentyl glycol plant has been maintained, but it is unable to continuously accept high levels of isobutyraldehyde. Therefore, it has started to purchase at a lower price, using and purchasing as needed, and reducing raw material stocking. The price of neopentyl glycol remains stagnant at a high level, which in turn suppresses the upper limit of isobutyraldehyde prices.
Supply side: The device operates stably and has a high proportion of self use
The isobutyraldehyde supporting butanol and octanol unit has stable operation in the domestic main unit, and there is no long-term shutdown maintenance plan in October. The industry’s operating rate remains at a high level, and the output of commodity volume is stable. Isobutyraldehyde is mostly co produced by butanol and octanol units, and enterprises prioritize supporting self use, with surplus sold externally; The elasticity of the quantity of goods sold outside is not significant, and the release of external sales sources this month is stable, with no obvious shortage of supply. The daily production of isobutyraldehyde far exceeds the consumption, and there is a surplus of about 150-200 tons in the spot market every day. If there is no transaction digestion, it will continue to accumulate as inventory pressure. In addition, the expected production of Wanhua Chemical’s new production capacity in Penglai has also suppressed market sentiment.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that the isobutyraldehyde market was in a game pattern of cost support and weak demand in October, and the isobutyraldehyde market fell from a high level in October. The price of isobutyraldehyde is at a high level in a one-year cycle, with limited upward potential and a high risk of falling back from the high level; In addition, with the continued weak demand, the expectation of Wanhua Penglai’s new production capacity is suppressing market sentiment, and it is expected that the isobutyraldehyde market will be weak in the future. There is still room for manufacturers to lower their quotes, and actual order negotiations will continue to offer discounts, so the probability of a sharp decline is not high.

The market for polyaluminum chloride in September saw a slight increase, with China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market reporting around 1786.67 yuan/ton on the 30th, an increase of 0.47% from the price of 1778.33 yuan/ton on the 1st.
In the production cost of polyaluminum chloride, raw materials such as alumina and hydrochloric acid account for over 60%. In September, the upstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated, and the smelting profits of aluminum plants were still acceptable. The industry as a whole maintained a high operating level, and the price of alumina fluctuated narrowly; The hydrochloric acid market rose by over 7% in September, providing support for the bottom cost of polyaluminum chloride and limiting the downward potential of the product.
The first and middle of the month belong to the traditional off-season for demand, and the water treatment industry has a stable increase in orders. Downstream procurement is based on demand and mainly consumes previous inventory, lacking large-scale stocking actions. Therefore, market prices remain stable for a long time. As the end of the month approaches, some municipal sewage and industrial water treatment projects have started to recover, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. The increase in orders has driven market transactions to improve and boosted prices.
Market forecast: The price of polyaluminum chloride will rise by the end of September, but this round of increase is mainly driven by short-term tightening of supply and downstream stage replenishment, with a relatively moderate increase. In the future, if upstream raw materials continue to maintain their strength, coupled with the increased demand for sewage treatment in autumn and winter, the polyaluminum chloride market may continue to be relatively strong.

In September, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and prices of various grades of spot goods fluctuated, with an overall increase. As of September 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11316.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.43% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter September, the domestic ABS industry’s equipment load remains stable with small fluctuations, and the overall operating rate fluctuates and falls to around 55%. The current weekly average production is within 120000 tons. The inventory position of finished products is still acceptable and has been reduced to less than 190000 tons. The shipment situation of aggregation plants within the range is average, and the profitability is poor. There are still cost reduction operations and supply contraction expectations for future aggregation plants. Overall, the supply side of ABS in September provided sufficient support for spot prices.
Cost factor: The volatile situation in the Middle East in September, the difficulty in implementing a ceasefire agreement, and the push up of international crude oil prices. In the second half of the month, Iran conveyed clear conditions for resuming negotiations to the mediator, and the US and Iranian presidents went to the meeting for direct contact. At the same time, multiple signals marked a substantial diplomatic breakthrough in the ongoing US Iran confrontation. The focus of market trading has shifted from “supply interruption panic” to “situation cooling and supply recovery”. Affected by it, the trend of styrene has shifted from strong to weak. However, in recent days, the shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz has still dropped to single digits, and the risks have not substantially improved. The market still has concerns about international crude oil supply. The price of pure benzene remains strong, providing a certain boost to styrene.
Although the acrylonitrile market was boosted by the rise in crude oil prices in the middle of the month, the combination of high operating rates and low consumption has suppressed spot prices. In the first half of the year, 660000 tons of new equipment and new production capacity from Zhejiang Petrochemical and 130000 tons from China UK Petrochemical will be successively implemented, leading to oversupply in the acrylonitrile market. At the beginning of the month, after a stagnant downward trend, the cost side bottomed out and stabilized. The current demand follow-up is still sluggish, and the price of acrylonitrile is prone to decline but difficult to rise in the future.
The overall trend of butadiene in September was initially suppressed, then rose, and fluctuated upwards. The core driving force behind the fluctuations in the monthly market is the phased adjustment of the supply and demand pattern, combined with fluctuations in raw material costs, concentrated installation maintenance, and seasonal recovery of downstream demand. At the same time, changes in market sentiment and trading mentality further amplify the market fluctuations, and overall break away from the previously weak operating pattern. In the future, it is necessary to focus on tracking fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, changes in domestic plant operation, and follow-up on downstream terminal demand.
On the demand side, there will be limited changes in the start of work for downstream ABS enterprises in September. The profit improvement of the main terminal electrical industry is limited, and the buyer camp is resistant to high priced goods, with a tendency to take goods as needed. The willingness to chase price increases on the market is average, and merchants follow the market and withdraw funds. Overall, there is a slight shortage of demand in September, and there is no clear signal of increased volume during the traditional peak season.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market fluctuated widely after rising in September. Within the range, the prices of the three raw materials fluctuated, and the overall cost side was relatively strong. The production load of the aggregation plant has fluctuated narrowly, with low inventory levels, but the on-site supply remains relatively abundant. The ABS consumption within the range is average, and the unit price profit situation has not improved. The current market trend is focused on the remote cost value, and it is recommended to closely monitor the crude oil market in the future.