1、 Price trend

The price of aniline rose slightly this week, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations. On September 4, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4350-4480 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4500-4700 yuan / ton, up 1.92% over last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, due to the end of maintenance of some downstream units in Shandong this week, the purchase enthusiasm for pure benzene increased, and the price of styrene rose, which led to the continuous pursuit of pure benzene. This week, pure benzene port inventory increased slightly, inventory pressure restricts the price rise. This Sunday (September 6), the listed price of pure benzene was 3170-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3410 yuan / ton), and the average price was 0.59% higher than last week.

Since August 19, the price of nitric acid in East China continued to stabilize. On September 4, the production price in East China was 1500 yuan / ton.

Aniline rose in Shandong Province stimulated by cost, while spot supply in East China was not much, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of aniline enterprises is not high, and the supply and demand are stable.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, new units will be put into operation downstream in September, and the operating rate is expected to increase. But at present, the profit of downstream products is meager, and the short-term port inventory pressure is not low, and the market news is expected to be weak next week.

Aniline enterprise shipment is stable, consumption growth is expected to be stable next week.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei Province is stable this week, and the price of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton, and that of 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder is about 2650 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week’s price. In terms of water salt system in Qinghai Province, the price of 50% powder to the station is about 2300 yuan / ton. It is understood that at present, the inventory of potassium sulfate in Luozhong and Hami of Xinjiang state investment corporation has been sold out, and it is expected to resume supply to the market in the first ten days of October. There is no obvious change in the potassium sulfate Market as a whole. The price remains high and the operating rate remains high. After the autumn fertilizer production peak season, the market demand begins to decline, and the price will stabilize in the short term. The price of upstream potassium chloride is too low in the early stage. Although there is a recent rise, the market is still mainly wait-and-see, and the transaction is not high.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of the business club believe that: the price of potassium sulfate will stabilize in the short term, and the current operating rate will continue to be high. In the case of weakening demand, how the market develops depends on the market reaction.

Trade name: fuel oil 180CST

Latest price (August 31, 2020): 3700 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on August 31, the price of fuel oil was 3700 yuan / ton, and the overall market was stable and the price was strong. The international crude oil price remained above US $40 / barrel, forming a certain support for the price of fuel oil. It is understood that wti10 contract crude oil closed at US $42.93/barrel on the 28th. Due to the current peak power consumption, the power plant procurement is relatively strong, which forms a certain support for fuel oil 180CST price. In addition, the overall inventory of international fuel has declined, and the pressure on the supply side has eased. At present, the price of low sulfur is 3750 yuan / ton for 180 CST fuel oil depot in Hebei area of China Fuel Oil Co., Ltd., and 3850 yuan / ton for 120 CST fuel oil depot.

Aftermarket forecast: it is expected that the fuel market will continue to explore the rising atmosphere in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2655.56 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2655.56 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.11%.

The price trend of domestic fluorite market is fluctuating. Recently, some manufacturers have reported that their goods are not in good condition, the downstream demand has not improved, and the fluorite price has not changed much. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite in the yard is not well stocked, and the market price of fluorite is slightly lower. In the near future, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price has remained low, and the terminal downstream on-demand procurement is not strong. As of the 28th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, Recently, the domestic fluorite price remains stable.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid downstream of fluorite is temporarily stable. As of 28 days, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 8670 yuan / ton. This week, the hydrofluoric acid market price remains stable. The low hydrofluoric acid market price has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable. In recent years, the sales market of automobile industry is general, but the market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is slightly lower. There is no obvious improvement in the demand for refrigerants. The foreign economy is recovering continuously. However, the export of refrigerant terminal has not changed much. However, the domestic air-conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak. On the whole, foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the inventory is in a reasonable range. Although the market price has increased, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price, and there is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 15800-16200 yuan / ton 。 The market of R134a in China continues to decline and has fallen to the bottom. The automobile market continues to be depressed with weak demand. The focus of market trading has shifted down and the atmosphere of transaction is light. There is sufficient supply of goods in the market, and there are new production capacity entering the market in the future market. The competition is fierce. The supply side gradually forms a negative situation. The price keeps falling. The downstream demand is not improved. The price of fluorite remains low.

On the whole, the market situation of the downstream refrigerant industry is not good. In addition, hydrofluoric acid merchants have reported that the hydrofluoric acid delivery situation is poor, and some regions are in a state of price and no market. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the fluorite market price may be slightly lower in the short term.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (August 26): 1855.00 yuan / ton

On August 26, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on August 24. At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream purchasing is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai area may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

Price: the mainstream quotation of GPPS is 7650-8900 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 8700-9700 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS market trend is stable, market inquiry atmosphere performance is general, small and medium-sized downstream enterprises still purchase on demand, the actual transaction is slightly light.

3、 Future forecast

The PS market is running smoothly, the quotation is stable, the traders are flexible, the terminal demand has not changed significantly, the factory still purchases on demand to meet the normal production, and the overall trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the PS market will continue to adjust downward.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of steam coal is temporarily stable this week. From August 17 to August 21, the average port price of steam coal remained at 559.5 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.24% compared with the same period last year. On August 23, the commodity index of steam coal was 67.41, unchanged with yesterday, down 34.56% from the highest point of 103.01 in the cycle (November 15, 2011), and 50.81% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of production areas, some coal mines in Northern Shaanxi have stopped production for maintenance, and the actual production capacity has declined and the supply is tight, but the overall shipment is relatively smooth, and the coal price generally rises by 5-10 yuan; the coal management tickets in Inner Mongolia are strictly controlled, and the long-term cooperative shipping is basically maintained, and the coal price is weak and stable; the production and sales in northern Shanxi are relatively normal, and the coal price is firm.

In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 556-561 yuan / ton. The high temperature weather in China continues, the daily coal consumption of power plants is increasing day by day, and the inventory has no obvious change, and most of them are long-term cooperative replenishment warehouses. As of the 21st, Zhejiang power had 4.43 million tons of inventory, 150000 tons of daily consumption, and 29.53 days of usable days.

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics on August 14 showed that the price of coal in the first ten days of August was mainly stable. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: anthracite (washing medium block, volatile content ≤ 8%) price is 835 yuan / ton, which is 5 yuan / ton lower than the previous period, or 0.6% lower. The price of ordinary blended coal (mixed coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 443.3 yuan / ton, up 2.7 yuan / ton or 0.6% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi mixed coal (better quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 495 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) was 543.3 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (produced by Datong, with calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 573.3 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 1270.0 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period.

Business agency analysts believe that: the supply of production areas is relatively tight, and the daily consumption of downstream power plants is increasing due to weather reasons. However, due to the coal price inventory of Changxie coal, the power plant needs to purchase steam coal on demand. Datong Qinhuangdao line is back to traffic, the shipment volume is less than that of the previous days, the inventory of Beigang is still in the middle and high level, the seller’s willingness to support the price is still there, the terminal demand is general, and the transaction situation is relatively general. In a comprehensive view, the short-term steam coal price may maintain a small consolidation trend, and the specific demand of downstream market.

In the case of stable supply and demand, the impact of power coal storage on the price increases. In August, the average daily coal consumption decreased, while the production of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi gradually recovered, and the power plant inventory was also at a high level. Therefore, the price of steam coal in late August dropped and adjusted, and the probability of decline increased.

Average daily coal consumption will decrease

From January to July, China’s power generation increased by 3.33% year-on-year, of which thermal power generation increased by 2.63%. From the monthly data, the average daily coal consumption of the six power generation groups increased significantly in March, especially from the middle of March. The month on month growth rate was 25% in March, 4.2% in April, 13.16% and 0.96% in May and June, respectively. In July, although the rainstorm affected the downstream construction progress, the average daily coal consumption remained at a high level. In August, with the end of large-scale rainfall in southern China and the recovery of downstream construction, it is expected that the average daily coal consumption of industrial enterprises will rise month on month in the middle and late August, while the civil power consumption is still at a high level. Recently, the electricity consumption in Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other places has reached an all-time high. The average daily coal consumption in the middle and last ten days of August may be the highest in the year.

In addition, from the seasonal point of view, the peak of thermal power generation is from July to August every year, which is also the peak season of power coal consumption. According to the statistical data analysis of the past eight years, the thermal power generation in August was higher than that in July in six years, except for 2014 and 2017. In absolute terms, the average daily thermal power generation in August increased by 0.5% – 1% compared with that in July. Therefore, we speculate that the thermal power generation capacity in August this year is still rising compared with July, but the range is limited.

Coal supply is gradually restored

As one of the largest coal producing areas in China, Inner Mongolia has been looking back at coal mines for 20 years since the end of April. Since 2000, all coal mines in Inner Mongolia have been included in the inventory, including planning and approval, investment audit, resource allocation and environmental audit. In this case, the output of Inner Mongolia fell by 12.9% in May and 9.6% in June. It is expected that coal production will gradually recover from July to August.

Since the middle and late July, the tense situation of coal spot market supply has eased, especially recently, the mine mouth coal supply in Inner Mongolia has increased, the spot shipment is slightly under pressure, and the price is weakening. However, since the end of July in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, the overall sales have weakened, the inventory has accumulated and the coal price has been lowered.

On the other hand, import coal increased more than expected. In August, Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal steam coal price rose to 543 yuan / ton, Shanxi Youhun 5500 kcal steam coal price rose to 578 yuan / ton, which is already in the high price area of the guiding price. Once the price rises to 600 yuan / ton, it will touch the lower limit of the red range of coal price proposed in the memorandum on suppressing the abnormal fluctuation of coal market price, and the state will start to stabilize the abnormal fluctuation price Mechanism. Therefore, there is limited space for coal prices to rise further. In addition, 8.39 million tons of steam coal were imported in June, an increase of 2.42 million tons compared with 5.97 million tons in May. Although the import volume in July decreased by 20.6% year-on-year, it increased by 810000 tons on a month on month basis. This shows that when the price of domestic coal is high, the control on imported coal will be relaxed.

As of the middle of July, the electric coal inventory of the power plants of the national unified dispatching was about 140 million tons, an increase of 5.1 million tons compared with the end of June, which was the highest level in the history of summer, and the available days of inventory increased to 27 days. The inventory of national key power plants also rose to a high level of 86 million tons, and the available days remained above 22 days.

At the same time, port inventory is also increasing. Since the end of May, coal stocks in both southern and northern ports have been on the rise, indicating that consumption in the South has also declined with the increase of supply in the north. The purchase intention of downstream terminal is low, the actual transaction of coal in the market is cold, and traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the mainstream quotations rise first and then fall. The basis has dropped from more than 30 yuan per ton in mid July to about – 17 yuan / ton at present, significantly down.

Yesterday, the domestic butadiene market was stable. In the morning, Sinopec announced a price adjustment plan. Dalian Hengli, Inner Mongolia Jiutai and Liaoyang petrochemicals all increased significantly. In the afternoon, Sinopec sales companies announced a price increase of 200 yuan / ton, and each petrochemical enterprise implemented 5400 yuan / ton. On August 18, the closing price of butadiene in Asia and Europe remained stable. Dealers have two attitudes: one is to follow the trend and the other is to keep the price unchanged and wait and see. At present, the market is generally optimistic, but the specific transaction follow-up is insufficient. Downstream synthetic rubber market quotation slightly increased, but obviously insufficient support. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic butadiene market high volatility.

Summary of closing prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe on August 18:

Regional and national closing prices up and down

Asia FOB Korea 540-550 USD / T 0

Asia CFR China $570-580 / T 0

Europe FOB Rotterdam $395-405 / T 0

Europe FD northwest Europe 340-350 euro / T 0

On August 19, the business agency monitored the quotation of domestic traders

Enterprise specification price

High grade product of Panjin Xinya Chemical Co., Ltd., with purity over 99.5% and 5900 yuan / ton

Excellent product of Beijing ruikaiming Chemical Co., Ltd., with purity over 99.5%, 6200 yuan / ton

Shandong Zengyue Chemical Trade Co., Ltd. excellent grade product, purity more than 99.5% 5800 yuan / ton

On August 18, the business agency monitored the closing price of domestic rubber

Product price

The reference price of styrene butadiene rubber was 8041.67, up 0.1% compared with August 1 (8033.33)

The reference price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 8070.00, unchanged with August 1

The reference price of NBR was 13466.67, which was 0.74% lower than that on August 1 (13566.67)

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3520 yuan / ton, down 0.84% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the international oil price rose sharply and fell back. Affected by this, the price of isomerized xylene decreased slightly this week. Meanwhile, affected by the low operating rate of downstream PX manufacturers, the demand for isomeric xylene slowed down, the market transaction was not active, and the price was weak and stable. The port inventory is high, about 160000 tons by the end of last week, and the progress of de stocking is slow. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3650 yuan / ton. As the new coronavirus epidemic leads to the reduction of crude oil demand and the impact of geopolitical tightening on economic recovery concerns, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, this week, the international oil price rose and fell. As of Friday, Brent rose 0.255 USD / barrel to 44.515 USD / barrel, up 0.58% month on month. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand prospect and oil price trend mainly depend on the trend of global epidemic situation and the orderly recovery of national economy. At the same time, how oil producing countries and oil enterprises adjust their production is also an important factor affecting oil prices.

Downstream, PX market, domestic Sinopec’s listed price is about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 536 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 554 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the market price dropped slightly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3630 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 445 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / T. the external price of o-benzene is about 518 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 543 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA, API inventory data in the short term. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geopolitical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the economic restart of crude oil demand and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart and recovery, as well as the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.