1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

The overall trend of epichlorohydrin market price fell in January. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 31, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10900 yuan / ton, down 12.80% compared with that on January 1, and up 0.93% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the first ten days of January, the market supply was relatively abundant, the manufacturers’ shipment was not smooth, the middle and lower reaches lacked confidence in the future market, the purchase intention of raw materials was not high, and the market was weak. In the middle of this year, the market continued its downward trend, the accumulated inventory increased, the follow-up of demand was insufficient, and the low price supply was frequent. In the latter half of the year, the lower reaches mainly need to prepare goods, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see.

Upstream propylene, as of January 29, Shandong propylene market price has stabilized. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. It increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th, and rose or stabilized in the later stage. It rose by about 250-300 yuan / ton this month. It began to decline continuously on the 21st, and dropped by 500-550 yuan / ton on the 28th. Today, it is generally stable. The market transaction is between 6900-7350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still between 6900-7350 yuan / ton 000 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock pressure is too big, the shipment situation is desolate

As for downstream epoxy resin, as of January 29, the liquid epoxy resin in East China has been running smoothly at a high level, the mainstream negotiation price is 25800-27000 yuan / ton, the factory mainly delivers orders, and the logistics transportation is limited near the end of the year.

3、 Future forecast

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of business news agency, the overall trend of epichlorohydrin in January was downward. In February, there was no pressure on manufacturers’ stock at present, and most of the downstream companies needed to follow up. With the end of pre Festival stock preparation in the downstream, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose in January. By the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10270 yuan / ton, 7.76% higher than 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 0.29% higher than the same period last year.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose sharply in January. So far, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly higher. Recently, domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, and the market price trend continues to rise.

The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight. Some hydrofluoric acid plants are overhauled in the hydrofluoric acid yard, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is 10000-10500 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly rising, and the manufacturers reflect that they are bullish in the near future, and the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in the later period has a greater driving force.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2741.11 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.82% in January. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply is tight, and the temperature is low. Some manufacturers in the North are parking, and the supply in the yard is slightly tight. The domestic fluorite price trend rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is affected by the favorable support, and the trend is rising.

The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment, the delivery of goods is not smooth, and the actual transaction focus rises slightly. Some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiations is 13500-16000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers reduced load operation, which supported R134a price rising. At present, the demand is not good, downstream enterprises stop work for holidays, traders withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and logistics in some areas is out of service. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, with high price, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the downstream refrigerant market is improving, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising slightly.

In general, due to the high price of raw material fluorite, the price of downstream refrigerants rose slightly, and the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. Supported by multiple positive factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.

In 2021, the domestic lead ingot Market fluctuated and rose. The average price of domestic market was 14862.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15318.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly rise of 3.07%.

On January 28, the lead commodity index was 93.23, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 30.43% from the highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29) in the cycle, and up 24.92% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Since January, at the beginning of the month, the sales of downstream battery enterprises increased, the lead ingot inventory was postponed, the downstream demand improved, the spot lead market negotiations increased, and the market price trend was good. Around the 7th, affected by the public health incident in Hebei, transportation was limited, many refineries in Hebei Province entered the overhaul ahead of time, the overall operating rate declined, the demand for raw materials weakened, and the market price entered the downward cycle. Since the middle of this year, with the gradual recovery of transportation and the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream manufacturers have a certain demand for goods, and the price of spot lead has fluctuated higher. However, towards the end of the month, downstream manufacturers began to repair or stop production one after another, and the manufacturers that did not stop production also announced the shutdown time, and their willingness to prepare raw materials declined. They mainly purchased a small amount of raw materials, and most of them were long-term customers. Only in Henan and other areas where there is no work stoppage during the holidays, the transaction is slightly better. As of the 29th, most enterprises have finished preparing goods before the festival. According to the announcement, most enterprises will enter the Spring Festival holiday early next month. As for futures, LME’s lead inventory was removed again by the 29th, with a decrease of 3025 tons to 10415 tons. This month, LME’s lead inventory was continuously and intensively removed, with the main trend of lead shock. In January, Shanghai lead was first restrained and then rose. In the first half of the month, the downward trend stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of the month, with a monthly increase of about 4%.

In the future, the business club believes that the stock preparation before the festival is basically over, and the traders have more demand for funds and strong shipping intention near the end of the new year. However, the downstream batteries continue to be in the doldrums, and the lead price without demand support is difficult to increase significantly. Due to the recent uncertainties in Sino US relations, the futures market failed to continue its early rise, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate before the festival.

Relevant data:

WBMs: the global lead market will be short of 86000 tons from January to November 2020: according to the latest report released by the world Bureau of metal statistics on Wednesday, the global lead market will be short of 86000 tons from January to November 2020, compared with 264000 tons in 2019. From January to November, the global refined lead output was 11.969 million tons, an increase of 3.9% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 5.759 million tons, an increase of 420000 tons over the same period in 2019, accounting for about 48% of the global total. In November 2020, the output of refined lead is 1.2068 million tons, and the demand is 1.2284 million tons.

ILZSG: the global lead market was short of 8000 tons in October: according to the international lead zinc research group (ILZSG), the global lead market was short of 8000 tons in October and 300 tons in September. In the first 10 months of 2020, global lead supply was in excess of 164000 tons, compared with a shortage of 42000 tons in the same period last year.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, on January 29, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid was 5050 yuan / ton, which was the same as 5050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.34% month on month and down 5.61% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market was running smoothly. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was stable, slightly lower than that of last week. The cost support was still in progress. However, as the Spring Festival approached, the trading volume of phosphoric acid market gradually weakened and the main orders were issued. At present, the lower reaches of the year before the end of the stock, coupled with limited logistics, demand reduction, industry cautious wait-and-see attitude, no price adjustment plan, stable price shipping. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of January 29, the quotation in Sichuan was 4900-5500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was about 4900 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was about 4700 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was about 4900-5200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was about 5600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangxi was about 5400 yuan / ton.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4900-5500

Hubei Province: 85% industrial grade – 4900-5200

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4800-4900

The content of ﹣ phosphoric acid in Guangxi: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 5000-5400

In Beijing and Tianjin area, the content of Pu is 85% industrial grade, 4700-5600

Yellow phosphorus, domestic yellow phosphorus market price is basically stable this week, slightly lower than last week. At present, there are few new orders in the market, and the enterprises mainly make orders in the early stage, and the delivery volume before the festival is also very small. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16300-16600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

For phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market is generally stable, and the downstream procurement is mainly cautious. The price of 28% low-grade phosphate rock in Guizhou Province is around 300-330 yuan / ton. Compared with a week ago, the price fluctuates little, the market atmosphere is general, and the orders are mainly in the early stage of delivery.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been stable recently, and the cost support is still in progress. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the preparation of downstream products before the year is coming to an end. In addition, the logistics is limited, and the demand is reduced, so the phosphoric acid market is gradually weakening. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will maintain a stable operation in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic spandex market price has been fluctuating upward in the past week. As of January 28, the average ex factory price of domestic spandex was 46300 yuan / ton, up 6.44% from January 21 and 45.14% year on year. The start-up of the industry is around 90%, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, the terminal market is gradually on holiday, the market is tight and the price is high, so we should wait and see carefully.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang: 51000-54000-50000-52000-42000-45000

Shandong Province: 52000-55000 50000-5300 42000-46500

Fujian Province 52000-55000 50000-53000 42000-46500

Jiangsu 51000-54000-50000-52000-41000-44000

In recent years, the price of PTMEG in the raw material market has been running upward, the support of cost has been strengthened, the inventory of PTMEG factory has no pressure, the orders are received smoothly, and the price intention is strong. In terms of price, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight source is 19500-20500 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is 19500-20000 yuan / ton. The start-up of the industry is maintained at around 80%. Specifically, among the 40000 ton plants in Yizheng Dalian, the 60000 ton plant in Panjin Changchun is not in high operation load, and the 46000 ton plant in Chongqing Chiyuan chemical is about 70%.

Pure MDI market wait-and-see arrangement is the main, and the stock preparation is basically completed near the holiday downstream. Most of the goods holders have cleared their positions and held the goods. Sporadic offers are stable, and the trading atmosphere is weak. Refer to 22500-23500 yuan / T T telegraphic transfer in barrels, and the actual order negotiation shall prevail. In January 2021, the listing price of pure MDI barrels of Wanhua chemical was 24000 yuan / ton, which was 4000 yuan / ton lower than that in December 2020. In December 2020, the settlement price was 23500 yuan / ton, down 4000 yuan / ton month on month.

The terminal textile factory gradually finished the finishing of the holiday, and had a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the raw materials. The market trading atmosphere was flat, and part of the early orders had not yet been handed over. Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms have now dropped to about 60%, with 30-40% of the round looms and 40-60% of the warp knitting looms in operation, which are running light. In the traditional textile market, there is still a drop in the spot subscription of the north and South merchants in winter, and the order undertaking is relatively limited, and the overall market turnover is lower than that in the earlier period.

Business analysts believe that at present, the price of spandex market is strong, the support of upstream cost side is increasing, the supply tension of spandex factory has not been eased, and the holiday atmosphere in the terminal market is relatively strong. All parties hold a market-oriented attitude, and it is expected that the short-term spandex market will fluctuate and adjust at a high level.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price on January 27: 616.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points on January 27, the overall trend of domestic ammonium sulfate was stable and rising. At present, export orders are performing well, and domestic downstream manufacturers are in a more positive mood in winter storage than in the earlier period, and they are hoarding goods in an appropriate amount before the year. The market of coking grade ammonium sulfate is stable and rising, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate is firm without fluctuation. On the whole, there are more downstream market searches, and the market is in a good mood with an appropriate amount of stock prepared before the year. The mainstream price of powdery ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is about 550 yuan / ton, and that in Hunan is about 700 yuan / ton. Ammonium sulfate analysts of business news agency believe that, on the whole, there are more downstream market seekers, and the market mentality is good with an appropriate amount of replenishment a year ago. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will rise steadily in the short term.

Recent domestic cyclohexanone market high consolidation. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of January 25, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 7033 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 0.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%. Pure benzene runs horizontally, the cost support is relatively stable, the downstream just needs to purchase mainly, the logistics transportation rises, the market is stable, the mainstream price is 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and the cash is delivered. The atmosphere of pure benzene negotiation in East China was general, and the focus was stable.

Region, price

East China: 7600-7700 yuan / ton, cash delivery

South China: 7750-7850 yuan / ton, cash delivery of vehicle

Shandong area: 7400-7500 yuan / ton, the whole vehicle is delivered in cash

The pure benzene market is in a horizontal consolidation, the cost support of cyclohexanone is stable, the logistics transportation is limited, the downstream chemical fiber just needs to be purchased, and the transaction atmosphere is general. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will be stable in the short term.

The international crude oil price was blocked, the weather turned cold, the asphalt demand of terminal road engineering remained low, the overall performance of domestic asphalt market was stable, and the asphalt price was stable. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the asphalt price on January 22 was 2535 yuan / ton, up 0.40% from the beginning of the week.

Recently, many media or countries have raised the international oil price forecast for 2021, but the IEA lowered the crude oil demand forecast for 2021. The EIA crude oil inventory increased by 4.351 million barrels, which hindered the rising trend of international oil price this week. WTI crude oil price fell by 0.29% and Brent crude oil price rose by 0.56%.

Affected by low temperature weather, domestic asphalt market demand remains low. The demand for asphalt in the southern region is basically stable, but the demand for asphalt will further decline as the Spring Festival holiday approaches; the demand for roads in the northern region is basically over, and some refineries switch to coking and waterproof asphalt, and there is no large-scale demand for winter storage. On the whole, the domestic asphalt market entered the off-season demand, and the domestic asphalt price remained stable.

Analysts from business news agency believe that the upward trend of international crude oil price is blocked, and the domestic asphalt demand enters the off-season, so the domestic asphalt price is expected to be stable.

According to statistics, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose this week, with an average price of 5200 yuan / ton at the weekend, 10.64% higher than the price of 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 24.64% lower than the same period last year.

The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is rising, and the domestic PX operation rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 tons new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical unit is stable, Fuhai Chuang unit starts one line, Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is normal, Jinling Petrochemical unit is stable, Qingdao Lidong unit is full load, Qilu petrochemical unit is stable The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant is running normally, the supply of domestic p-xylene is normal, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia was about 70%, and the supply of PX in Asia was normal. The trend of PX external price was mainly volatile this week. By the end of the week, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB South Korea and us $689-691 / T CFR China. This week, the trend of PX external price remained high. About 40% of domestic products needed to be imported, and PX external price closed The rising price has a positive impact on the domestic market, and the price trend of domestic PX market is rising.

The price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose slightly this week. As of the 21st, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was at US $53.13/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures market was at US $56.10/barrel. The oil price continued to rise, mainly because the market was still concerned about Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reduce production, the tense relations between the United States and Iraq, and the strong stock market The rising trend of crude oil price is a good support for domestic petrochemical products, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is higher.

This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches fell slightly. By the end of the week, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated for 3800-3900 yuan, and the recent PTA downstream orders were acceptable. PTA enterprises had good production enthusiasm, and there was no large-scale maintenance phenomenon. As of January 22, the starting load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 84%, which was at the normal level. At present, the periodic contradiction between supply and demand of PTA is not sharp, and crude oil still brings some support to the market. PTA price is expected to continue the strong oscillation situation, so the price trend of upstream PX is mainly rising.

In general, the demand of the textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is relatively normal, the terminal demand is general, and the upstream PX is mainly purchased on demand, and the price trend of PX market is rising.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the recent trend of crude oil price remains at a high level. In addition, the downstream industry market is fair, and the domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will remain at a high level next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene showed a trend of first rising and then falling this week. On January 10, the price of pure benzene was 4170-4550 yuan / ton (average price was 4424 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (January 17), the price of pure benzene was 4230-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4506 yuan / ton), up 82 yuan / ton or 1.85% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

At the beginning of this week, the price of pure benzene continued to rise, supported by the rise of crude oil. Later, with the decline of crude oil and the decline of external market, the domestic market mentality turned cautious, and the prices of individual factories decreased at the weekend. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 100 yuan / ton to 4650 yuan / ton, and the price in parts of North China was increased to 4500 yuan / ton. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 2000 tons higher than last week.

In terms of external market, the external market continued to be weak this week. On Friday (January 15), South Korea imported 649.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 15.34 US dollars / ton or 2.31% compared with January 8; East China imported 636 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 6 US dollars / ton or 0.93% compared with January 8.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell after rising this week, which was lower than last week. Compared with January 8, Brent fell by $0.775/barrel, or 1.42%; WTI rose by $0.16/barrel, or 0.31%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream: styrene: less arrival at the wharf, less storage than expected, and the overall market supply is tighter than that in the early stage. The overall downstream operation rate was stable, the three downstream benefits were acceptable, the demand for styrene was maintained, and the market transaction was improved. On Friday (January 15), the price of sample enterprises was 6700 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton or 2.29% compared with last Friday, and down 7.37% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in the north, the transportation is affected, and the demand in the lower reaches of the north is limited to a certain extent. However, the relative load of aniline enterprises is not high, the spot supply is reduced, the inventory is controllable, and the price is firm. On January 17, the price of aniline was 7800-7900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 8000-8100 yuan / ton in Nanjing.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, boosted by favorable news such as Saudi Arabia’s voluntary additional production reduction and Biden’s announcement of a new round of U.S. economic stimulus plan, crude oil is strong and the pattern remains unchanged, and oil prices are expected to continue to rise.

Affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in the north, the downstream terminals may stop ahead of time, and the pure benzene enterprises may reduce the price to promote the shipment. And the external market has continued to soften. The price of pure benzene is expected to be weak next week. Pay attention to the situation of downstream stock preparation and shutdown before the festival, and the trend of crude oil, external market and styrene.