1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has slightly increased this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6710 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6760 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.75% during the week.

The isopropanol market has slightly increased this week. At present, there are limited on-site inquiries, and the market trading atmosphere is still average. The trading focus is stabilizing, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. There is a strong demand for goods, and caution is exercised when placing actual orders. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6700-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 7000 yuan/ton, while in the South China region, the price is around 7250 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone fluctuated slightly this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5865 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5885 yuan/ton. The price first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase of 0.51%. Returning after the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the market is still good, and the mentality of holders of goods is not fluctuating much. The offers are adjusted according to the market, and the overall range is adjusted. The purchasing power of end-users is limited, and it is expected that the short-term acetone market will not fluctuate much.

In terms of propylene, the overall price of propylene market has increased this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6513.25 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6745.75 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.57%. At present, the inventory of enterprises has decreased, and some manufacturers have a strong willingness to push up prices, with downstream demand being the main focus. It is expected that the market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the price of isopropanol has slightly increased this week. The acetone market has fluctuated and risen, while the propylene market price has increased, and the cost support is still strong. After the holiday, downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, with a focus on essential needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market continued to weaken in September. From September 1st to 30th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8171 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 9.44% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 33.25%.

Multiple sets of equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and load reduction have reduced the industry’s capacity utilization rate to just over 50%, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. After the BDO market price fell to a historical level, the industry suffered severe losses, and production enterprises focused on maintaining a stable market mentality. The overall downstream load of the terminal has increased, but after most factories restock at low prices, their short-term intention to purchase raw materials is not strong, and the domestic BDO market continues to be weak.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, 15 sets of BDO maintenance or replacement units will be installed in September, with a total production capacity of 1.714 million tons per year; Under the pressure of losses, some units were forced to shut down one after another. At the same time, some of the previously shut down units have not been restarted and new production capacity has not yet been put into operation, resulting in a significant decline in industry capacity utilization. The monthly BDO production has been reduced to the lowest point of the year, and the supply side has a certain advantage. The supplier’s price mentality has driven the contraction of the October cycle sales policy, limiting the market’s downward space. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: As the holiday approaches, logistics pressure increases. Downstream stocking is active, but currently some enterprises have insufficient stocking, coupled with the instability of the supply side, the purchasing enthusiasm of various enterprises remains undiminished. The calcium carbide market continues to show positive news. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market was relatively strong in September, and the BDO cost deviated from the positive factors.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG spandex industry chain has a relatively high monthly load, but other downstream loads are average, resulting in an overall reduction in raw material digestion. At the same time, most downstream industries have followed the resonance of raw materials downward, with profits in a loss state. They mainly follow up on the continuation of raw material contracts, and most of them carry out certain replenishment operations when raw material prices are low. Therefore, the intention to stock up before the National Day holiday is not strong, which suppresses the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, there are plans to restart some facilities, and new production capacity is also expected to be put into operation in the near future, leading to an increase in market supply of goods. After the holiday, downstream storage and replenishment of essential goods are the main focus, and there is no significant breakthrough on the demand side. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will continue to weaken and consolidate.

This week (9.19-9.29), the dichloromethane market showed a stable and upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2695 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.1%.

The dichloromethane market has experienced a stable, moderate, and slight upward trend, with a relatively optimistic trading atmosphere. The delivery process of enterprises in Shandong region is smooth, and the market performance is particularly impressive; Enterprises in the southern region, on the other hand, maintain a relatively stable but slightly calm state. As the holiday approaches, the inventory pressure of enterprises is relatively low. The market generally believes that the possibility of a significant adjustment in the price of dichloromethane before the holiday season is small, and buyers’ enthusiasm for continuing to stock up before the holiday is not high. As of September 29th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2670-2720 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the load of the equipment has been reduced, and the production of methane chloride has slightly decreased.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the upward movement of raw material prices has strongly supported the upward trend of dichloromethane market. The market for raw material methanol has stopped falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 28th, the spot price of methanol was 2428.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% compared to September 19th. The overall supply of goods is abundant, but the growth rate on the demand side is relatively limited. The center of gravity of the liquid chlorine market has shifted upward, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable.

In terms of demand: Dichloromethane has a wide range of applications, and downstream refrigerant R32 was overused by air conditioning companies in the first half of the year, resulting in a continuous increase in demand. The quota policy has a significant impact on R32, with a market price of around 38000 yuan/ton. Procurement channels have not fallen back, and the market remains strong. Positive support for dichloromethane formation.

Business analysts believe that as the holiday approaches, the short-term price of dichloromethane will consolidate, supported by rising raw material prices. After the holiday, major factories will shut down for maintenance, and it is expected that the focus of the dichloromethane market will shift upward.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market stabilized after a decline in September. As of September 27th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7351 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% from the beginning of the month.

On the supply side, the mainstream polyester staple fiber factories in the middle of the month experienced short shutdowns due to weather conditions, which tightened the liquidity of some brand sources and provided some support for prices. But currently, the maintenance and short stop devices for polyester staple fibers have been restarted, and the industry’s production has increased, leading to an increase in supply.

On the cost side, as of September 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.67 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.09 per barrel. The crude oil market is more concerned about the fundamental situation, and factors such as the continued disturbance of the Middle East situation and strong expectations of inventory accumulation in the US consumer off-season market will have a narrow fluctuation in oil prices.

PTA followed the fluctuations of crude oil and was boosted by favorable factors such as macro reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, which boosted the commodity market. The recovery of macro atmosphere caused resonance in the general rise of the commodity market, and PTA prices began to rebound slightly in mid month. The processing profit in September has been compressed, and multiple PTA units in China have been repaired and reduced in load. However, PTA maintenance units have been restarted one after another, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. The domestic industry operating rate is around 81%, and it is not ruled out that there will be an increase in unplanned unit maintenance in October.

On the demand side, downstream has entered the traditional peak season cycle, but due to the lack of significant increase in terminal orders, the main focus is on essential procurement. Some downstream enterprises believe that the price of polyester staple fibers has temporarily bottomed out, so their restocking sentiment has improved and they are actively inquiring and purchasing. However, overall, there has been no significant improvement in demand.

Business analysts believe that the warm cost adjustment has a strong driving force on the price of polyester staple fiber, and there is no sign of improvement in terminal orders. Downstream demand may maintain rigid procurement, and the demand side is still exhausted, which is not enough to support the continuous rise of polyester staple fiber prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid remained stable in September. As of September 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s hydrofluoric acid (export) was 12733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.04% compared to the beginning of this month (12866.67 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price of raw material sulfuric acid has weakened and declined. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out renovation of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. In addition, the high temperature and rainy weather in the southern region have increased the difficulty of operating fluorite mines, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the decline in fluorite prices is somewhat restricted. Some domestic enterprises’ facilities for hydrofluoric acid are still shut down and waiting for the market, resulting in limited release of hydrofluoric acid production, low industry profits, and increased losses. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of September 26th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 342.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -14.37% compared to the beginning of this month (400.00 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market production demand is weakening, and air conditioning companies are entering the annual maintenance season. In addition, with the recent continuous rainy weather, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. Price cutting procurement, urgent need for replenishment.

Market forecast: Upstream sulfuric acid prices are expected to decline in the near future. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain weak and stable in the later period.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On September 24th, the average market price was 8304.67 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today, domestic pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is currently average. International crude oil futures closed down, mainly due to destocking of port inventory, but there is a high accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. Shandong local refineries continue to offer discounts to promote spot sales. Prediction: It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the trend of domestic fluorite prices has stopped falling and stabilized. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3375 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week at 3375 yuan/ton, and remained stable year-on-year.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and fluorite enterprises have low inventory levels. Recently, the fluorite market has stopped falling.

Demand side: Weak demand for hydrofluoric acid, refrigerant market has risen slightly

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fluctuated at a low level, with mainstream prices ranging from 10300 to 10800 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating weakly, with some units still being shut down recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and downstream demand is poor. The domestic fluorite market remains low.

The downstream refrigerant market has seen some market trends rise, with rapid digestion of summer after-sales demand and continued destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical companies within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, with upstream products being mainly purchased on demand. The market for some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a halt in the decline of the fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, but the downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and both long and short factors have jointly affected it. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

Recently (9.10~9.18), the market price of Shunding rubber has risen. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 18, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 16020 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.96% from 15410 yuan/ton on September 10. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, and the cost is supported by butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production is still at a low level; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Some suppliers of Shunding rubber have raised their supply prices, and some merchants have followed suit with their offers.

Recently, the price of butadiene has risen, providing support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 18th, the price of butadiene was 13550 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.73% from 12937 yuan/ton on September 10th.

Recently (9.10-9.18), the overall operation of domestic butadiene rubber plants is still at a low level, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is not significant.

On the demand side: With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has maintained stable production, and the demand is facing the urgent support of the butadiene rubber market. As of September 6th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will rise, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will shift upwards; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; Recently, downstream tire companies have started production steadily, which provides some support for Shunding Rubber. Overall, the Shunding Rubber market is expected to maintain a high level of operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade has been weakly stable this week. As of September 14th, its average market price has been adjusted to 6337 yuan per ton.

At the beginning of the week, macro bearish sentiment remained, with crude oil and raw materials continuing to decline and PET cost support collapsing. On September 10th, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth rate, offsetting potential supply risks from hurricanes in the Gulf region. International oil prices fell to their lowest point in 33 months. NYMEX crude oil futures 10 contract 65.75 fell $2.96 per barrel or 4.31%; ICE Brent Oil Futures 11 contract fell $2.65/barrel or 3.69% to 69.19. The main contract of Chinese INE crude oil futures, 2411, fell 1.7 to 508.7 yuan/barrel, and fell 14.2 to 494.5 yuan/barrel in the evening session. In the later part of the week, with the rebound of international crude oil and the recovery of commodity atmosphere, the rebound of polyester raw materials provided market support, coupled with the tight circulation of PET spot goods, the downward trend eased to some extent.

From the demand side, the industry’s mentality has been frustrated, and industry participants generally adopt more conservative strategies, being more cautious in placing orders, which may limit the rebound of PET spot market prices.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that the current PET market has a sharp supply-demand imbalance, with increased supply and weak demand, coupled with export obstacles, putting heavy upward pressure on the absolute price of the PET market. The market trend tends to be cautious and unstable.

Last week (September 2-8), the nylon filament market continued to maintain a stable trend, with prices temporarily stabilizing and consolidating. There is currently no significant improvement in downstream demand, and downstream manufacturers are following up on demand from multiple parties. The trading atmosphere in the market is still mainly flat; Raw material side: Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has been lowered, while the market price of nylon PA6 chips remains stable, with average cost support; The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not significant. There is a lack of positive news to boost the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among industry players.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament remained stable last week (September 2-8). As of September 8, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18680 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Stable raw materials are the main focus

Last week (September 2-8), the basic situation of the nylon filament raw material caprolactam market was stable, with average cost support. There was a certain increase in the supply and demand of the caprolactam market, but there was a lack of significant boost in terminal demand. On September 8, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12828.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of this month.

Supply and demand: Last week (September 2-8), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable. Most of the nylon filament market facilities are operating stably, and currently the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. Good support from the demand side is difficult to find, the speed of on-site cargo flow is average, trading activity is average, and market confidence is insufficient.

Future forecast

Although entering the traditional peak season for textiles, downstream market demand will improve to some extent, but there is currently no obvious sign of improvement, and on-demand procurement is still the main focus; The cost side caprolactam market is expected to remain generally stable, while the cost side support for nylon filament is limited. Business analysts predict that in the short term, the nylon filament market will mainly stabilize and operate, with prices fluctuating narrowly.