1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9000 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.12%, and the weekend price increased by 23.85% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen fluctuations in their quotations and low inventory this week.

The propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6863.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7054.60 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 2.79%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.49% over the weekend. In the early part of the week, due to the shutdown of some upstream devices in the region, supply tightened, prices rose, and downstream buyers entered the market. In the later part of the week, prices rose to a high level, and the atmosphere of downstream entry into the market weakened. In addition, some units released propylene, which eased the tight supply situation and led to a slight decline in propylene prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 10600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10666.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.63%, and the weekend price falling by 1.84% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, with enterprises operating at a high level and downstream demand being good, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late March, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support, while the downstream new pentanediol market has slightly increased. Enterprises have started operating at a high level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analyst believes that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Acetic anhydride prices have stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 22, the price of acetic anhydride was 5362.50 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the price of acetic anhydride on March 1, which was 5362.50 yuan/ton; Compared to last weekend’s March 10th, the price of acetic anhydride increased by 0.70% to 5325 yuan/ton. The price of acetic acid has stopped falling and rebounded, with a slight increase in transaction volume and an increase in the cost of acetic anhydride; This week, the production of acetic anhydride enterprises has been stable, the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient, the inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers is low, and downstream rigid demand is the main. The price of acetic anhydride has stopped falling and rebounded this week.

Acetic acid prices have stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid commodity market in Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the price of acetic acid was 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% from the price of 3100 yuan/ton on March 1st. The acetic acid manufacturer is operating steadily and the overall production is at a high level. The downstream production of acetic acid is stable, with high market supply and demand, and transactions remain in high demand. The acetic acid market has entered a rebound stage, and industry players have a bullish attitude. The cost increase of acetic anhydride provides greater support.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, in terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid is showing a rebound trend, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is increasing; In terms of supply, acetic anhydride manufacturers have low inventory, which has a certain positive effect on the supply of acetic anhydride; In terms of demand, there is currently no significant positive trend in downstream demand. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, resulting in weak demand and low supply; The upward momentum of acetic anhydride is increasing, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rebound and rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2392 yuan/ton on the weekend, a price drop of 2.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%. On March 7th, the baking soda commodity index was 158.85, a decrease of 1.64 points from yesterday, a decrease of 32.65% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 79.96% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is running weakly, with the mainstream market quotation of around 1900-2400 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2190 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 2040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.85%, a decrease of 26.62% compared to the same period last year..

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with weak performance in the upstream raw material soda ash sector. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other sectors of baking soda have recently made more purchases according to demand, replenishing inventory in an appropriate amount, without any positive support. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for chloroacetic acid was weak and downward in early March. As of March 6th, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton or 1.58% compared to March 1st, which was 3175 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material acetic acid has dropped

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the price of acetic acid was 3051 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton or 1.58% compared to the price of 3100 yuan/ton on March 1st.

Downstream on-demand procurement

After the holiday, downstream construction began one after another, and the purchasing atmosphere on the demand side slightly improved. However, the main focus was still on small orders for basic needs, and the market trading sentiment was average.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society believe that raw material enterprises have high operating rates, market supply may be mainly high, and there is a lack of favorable conditions on the market and insufficient cost support. However, downstream demand has increased, and it is expected that the overall market for chloroacetic acid will remain stagnant and consolidate in March. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment.

The acrylic acid market has been operating weakly recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 5th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00% compared to last Wednesday (February 18th).

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on March 4th, the reference price for propylene was 6863.25, a decrease of 0.11% compared to March 1st (6870.75). Recently, the raw material propylene market has experienced narrow fluctuations and consolidation, with moderate support for the acrylic acid market.

Supply and demand side: In recent times, the demand side has been dragging the market, with the terminal market mainly being wait-and-see. Downstream new orders have limited transactions, and the purchasing attitude towards the acrylic acid market is cautious. Enterprises are not smooth in shipping, and some discounts are used to promote transactions. The focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market has decreased.

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the short-term cost support is limited, downstream manufacturers have poor purchasing sentiment, and multi-dimensional small orders in demand are being followed up. The market atmosphere is light, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Last week (2.26-3.4), the market trend of butyl acrylate was downward, with prices decreasing. Due to insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, procurement was not active, and on-demand procurement was the main focus. Inquiry and wait-and-see were observed, with limited trading volume and insufficient intention to hold the goods, which lowered the purchase price. The market for butyl acrylate lacks driving force and its trend is viewed as weak. As of March 4th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9530.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.95% compared to last Monday (9720.00 yuan/ton).

At present, the spot price trend of butyl acrylate is weak, with a slight decrease in price. Market transactions are poor and sentiment is poor. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is heavy, and there is insufficient willingness to hold the goods. The market lacks driving force, resulting in a narrow decline in the market trend.

In terms of demand, downstream demand is lukewarm, procurement is not active, and the trend of butyl acrylate accumulation is increasing. Inventory is steadily increasing, and it is difficult to ease in the short term. From the trend, short-term sales with inventory are expected. The downstream tape and lotion factories basically recovered to the normal production level, but due to the slow recovery of terminal demand, the downstream mainly consumes inventory, and is willing to replenish the raw materials as soon as they are purchased. The price of adhesive tape master rolls has remained stable, and the cost side’s guidance on adhesive tape master rolls has weakened. Affected the purchasing mentality of downstream users in the market, the demand for tape master roll production enterprises has weakened, and the market is mainly dominated by individual transactions.

In terms of supply, the raw material n-butanol fluctuated downwards, reducing cost pressure. The utilization rate of butyl acrylate production capacity has slightly improved, with an increase in spot supply. Factories and holders follow the market’s trend in shipping, and downstream users mainly consume early inventory. Purchasing is cautious and cautious, leading to a decline in market negotiations. There is not much change in the short-term fundamentals, and raw materials may stop falling and stabilize. The cost inventory is supported by bottoming out, and downstream or small order replenishment expectations are expected. The main focus is on the operation of butyl acrylate or interval, and attention should be paid to changes in enterprise equipment load and raw material market.

Market forecast: The supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, and the domestic butyl acrylate market is still under pressure for short-term shipments. There is still a possibility of a decline in butyl acrylate, and the industry is facing loss pressure, but the overall decline is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic BDO market showed a warm and fluctuating trend in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 9421 yuan/ton to 9428 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.08% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 0.23%. The price decreased by 32.65% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there are no significant fluctuations in the equipment, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. However, most downstream industries have experienced a decline in production, resulting in a decrease in BDO consumption of raw materials, delivery of contract orders, and limited availability of spot goods for negotiation.

In the first week of returning from the Spring Festival holiday, although some regions have delayed transportation and high online bidding, there is inventory waiting to be digested in both upstream and downstream, and the market lacks obvious positive support. Spot trading is light, and the focus is weak and stagnant.

As the end of the month approaches, some production enterprises have slightly increased their bidding prices, boosting the market atmosphere. Traders and downstream players are not very enthusiastic, and many of them are in urgent need of purchasing. The focus of the domestic BDO market is stagnant.

Supply side: According to the current known maintenance plan, BDO will start operating at around 60% load in March.

On the cost side, raw materials for calcium carbide: After the holiday, with the rainy and snowy weather in most northern regions, logistics continued to be hindered, leading to a significant increase in enterprise inventory. Many enterprises reduced their operating rates to alleviate the pressure of losses, while downstream enterprises encountered a situation of insufficient replenishment. Transportation gradually eased after the holiday, and factory inventory decreased significantly. Terminals gradually arrived, and market transactions heated up. However, overall market prices are still not optimistic. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market saw a high consolidation in February, with a monthly increase of 6.18%. Recently, the calcium carbide market has been operating at a low level, while the methanol market has been mainly consolidating at a high level. The cost of BDO is mixed.

On the demand side, March will enter the traditional peak season stage, and the main downstream PTMEG will continue to operate at high loads. With the restart of the downstream spandex reduction device after the holiday, demand gradually rebounds. Coupled with cost pressure, PTMEG manufacturers have a strong attitude towards stabilizing prices. The second largest downstream PBT has returned after the holiday, and with the support of cost side PTA, the market has rebounded, and supply has not fully returned to normal levels. Driven by the resumption of downstream work and strong costs, demand for another major downstream PBAT is slowly increasing. The demand for raw materials in the GBL, PU, and TPU sectors is expected to increase after the resumption of downstream operations at the terminal.

In terms of price, according to statistics, the prices of BDO downstream have increased to varying degrees after the holiday.

In the future market forecast, overall, under the maintenance plan of multiple manufacturers, BDO’s supply has significantly decreased, while demand has gradually rebounded to pre holiday normal levels downstream of the terminal, and the market demand is expected to warm up in the later period. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market is expected to break through.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of cryolite in Henan province fell this week. On February 29th, the average market price in Henan was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7625 yuan/ton on February 26th, a decrease of 0.33%.

This week, the ice crystal market has slightly decreased, and enterprise prices have remained stable with little movement. Upstream raw material prices are operating at a low level, providing sufficient support for the cryolite market. Due to difficulties in operating fluorite mines, spot prices continue to be tight, and the overall price is still at a relatively high level in the fluorite industry. There is still pressure on the cost of cryolite, with most cryolite manufacturers maintaining stable prices. Some companies have slightly lowered their prices to promote shipment of cryolite, while downstream buyers follow up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the cryolite market is observing and consolidating. As of February 29th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8200 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton within the range.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly increased, with an average market price of 3350.00 yuan/ton on February 29th, an increase of 0.19% compared to the price of 3343.75 yuan/ton on February 26th. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it difficult to operate fluorite mines. Downstream procurement follows up on demand, and actual procurement is limited. The fluorite price market is operating on a wait-and-see basis.

Market forecast: Difficulty in extracting cryolite raw materials, tight supply of fluorite, and continued cost pressure on cryolite. The price of cryolite on the market is mainly strong, and downstream parties have resistance to high prices. There is insufficient enthusiasm for entering the market to purchase, and manufacturers have limited shipments. The mentality of operators is cautious, and it is expected that the short-term cryolite market will consolidate and operate. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mixed xylene market slightly increased in February. On February 28th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7420 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 7340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The low point of the cycle was 7270 yuan/ton, and the high point was 7440 yuan/ton.

The rise in international crude oil and foreign market prices supports the formation of mixed xylene

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices rose during and after the holiday in February, leading to stronger support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of February 27th, WTI04 contract settlement is 78.87 USD/barrel; Brent 05 contract settlement is $82.66 per barrel. The slight increase in the price of mixed xylene in Asia has supported the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $942 to $943 per ton as of February 27th.

Relative high level mixed xylene production requires support for xylene production

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, and the domestic PX operating rate remains at 8.4%. The external price of PX has slightly increased, and as of the 27th, the closing price in the Asian region is 1019-1021 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1044-1046 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Low level temporary stable mixed xylene demand support for phthalic anhydride production is weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is stable, but some units are still in a shutdown state. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is around 60%. During the Spring Festival, inventory consumption on site is fast, and prices of phthalic anhydride manufacturers have increased. The supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly increased, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Domestic mixed blending demand weakened during the off-season mixed xylene demand support

During the off-season of the domestic mixed blending market before and after the Spring Festival, downstream inquiries were light, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. In the later stage, with the increase in local refining operations, the demand for oil blending in the market is expected to recover. As of February 22, the nationwide refinery operation fluctuated narrowly around 7.1 to 7.3.

Continuous increase in mixed xylene port inventory and supply pressure still present

The continued increase in mixed xylene port inventory has put pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene. It is understood that as of February 23, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 100800 tons, continuing to increase from 99000 tons in early February.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will fluctuate, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene. Domestic supply will continue to accumulate, and with the arrival of downstream peak season, the demand for mixed xylene is expected to increase. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will fluctuate and rise in the later period.

Price trend

After the holiday, the domestic PA66 market is rapidly rising. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on February 27th, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 22566.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 8.32% compared to before the holiday.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

Adipic acid: The market price of adipic acid followed the upward trend of upstream pure benzene in February, and has recently hit a high level sideways. In addition, on the 23rd, international giant Langsheng sent a letter raising the price of adipic acid by 250 euros per ton. The combination of raw materials and external market support is expected to continue the rise of adipic acid market in the future.

Hexanediamine: In February, there was also news of international large factories raising prices in the hexanediamine market. At the beginning of the month, NVIDIA issued a price increase letter, increasing prices by 500 yuan/ton, promoting the strong operation of hexanediamine prices before and after the Spring Festival. On the 26th, it was announced again to raise the price by 2500 yuan/ton, and the latest price of 25000 yuan/ton will be implemented on March 1st, with a significant increase. At present, the positive news of the new price increase letter has not been fully released, coupled with the continuous tight supply of goods in the market, the bullish confidence of the industry in the future has been greatly strengthened; Overall, both costs and materials have strengthened, maintaining strong support for the PA66 market.

In terms of supply:

Since the holiday, the operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines has remained low and adjusted. Recently, the overall industry load has been around 59%, a decrease of 2% compared to the pre holiday average load. At present, the production of enterprises is at a low and stable level, and there is no accumulation of inventory. Low end supply has decreased, with clear operations for price increases. The market circulation of goods is tight, and the support from suppliers is relatively strong.

In terms of demand:

Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, after nearly ten days of resuming work, downstream enterprises of PA66 have gradually returned. However, there are still some enterprises that maintain low load production or have not yet started production, and textile, electrical and modification enterprises have not fully started stocking and consumption, and most of their procurement operations are maintained with just the necessary follow-up. On exchange trading is average, and it is expected that more demand will be released in the future. Traders follow the market and actively try to report high. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 has been rising recently. The prices of raw materials have both strengthened, maintaining strong support for the cost of PA66. The PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is also low. Terminal enterprises are gradually starting construction, and demand is gradually increasing. Overall, the main guidance for the market is on the cost side, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to operate in a relatively strong market in the short term.