1、 Yellow phosphorus industry overview
Yellow phosphorus is also called white phosphorus. White or light yellow translucent solid. The production process of yellow phosphorus is relatively simple. Phosphorus ore, silica and coke are put into the electric furnace in a certain proportion and granularity, and decomposition and reduction reactions occur at a high temperature of more than 1300 degrees. Phosphorus steam and furnace dust are cooled and rinsed together to obtain products, and high-temperature slag is discharged directly from the electric furnace.
Figure: yellow phosphorus industry chain
Yellow phosphorus is located in the middle of the whole phosphorus chemical industry chain. The demand distribution in the lower reaches of yellow phosphorus is mainly concentrated in phosphoric acid (43%) and phosphorus trichloride (37%), and it is also widely used in specific applications. Yellow phosphorus is mainly used to produce sodium hypophosphite, phosphorus pentasulfide, red phosphorus, hexametaphosphate, phosphorus pentoxide, etc. its consumption accounts for about 15% of the total consumption of yellow phosphorus.
On December 24, the yellow phosphorus industry chain index was 103.09, down 0.82 points from yesterday, down 17.04% from 124.27 (2019-07-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 29.36% from 79.69, the lowest point on October 7, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)
Figure: yellow phosphorus industry chain index
On July 3, 2019, CCTV’s focus interview focused on the pollution of yellow phosphorus plant in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The tail gas from the electric furnace of yellow phosphorus plant is directly discharged into the atmosphere, and the phosphorus containing sewage is arbitrarily discharged. As soon as the news came out, the yellow phosphorus industry in Southwest China was comprehensively renovated, and the operating rate fell sharply. As the main producing area of yellow phosphorus, the quotation in Southwest China rose sharply. According to the “yellow phosphorus industry access conditions” issued on January 1, 2009, the existing yellow phosphorus devices, such as raw material dust recovery, energy consumption, comprehensive utilization of tail gas, mud phosphorus recovery, sewage treatment, safety assurance and comprehensive utilization of phosphorus slag, do not meet the requirements of these conditions, and must complete the relevant transformation within two years from the implementation of the entry conditions, and can continue to be accepted by the relevant departments Production.
2、 Yellow phosphorus production capacity
Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China’s yellow phosphorus industry has become the world’s largest producer of yellow phosphorus after more than 40 years of rapid development, with the production capacity accounting for 80% of the global production capacity. In recent years, under the national supply side reform, backward production capacity has been eliminated, and under the pressure of environmental protection supervision, yellow phosphorus production capacity and production have shown a downward trend. According to statistics, in 2018, the yellow phosphorus production capacity was 1.31 million tons, the production was about 810000 tons, and the industry operation rate was only 62%, down 12.7% year on year. The output is about 810000 tons. It is estimated that in 2019, the yellow phosphorus production capacity will be about 1.22 million tons, the output will be about 650000 tons, and the output will be reduced by about 200000 tons.
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At present, China’s yellow phosphorus production capacity is mainly distributed in the provinces with relatively concentrated hydropower and phosphate resources, namely Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei and Sichuan. Among them, the production capacity of Yunnan accounts for 46% of the total production capacity of yellow phosphorus, and that of Sichuan accounts for 23%, while that of Guizhou and Hubei accounts for the third and fourth places, accounting for 19% and 7% respectively. At present, the start-up of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan is around 38%, that in Guizhou is around 14%, that in Guizhou is low, and that in Sichuan is around 23%. In November, China’s yellow phosphorus output was about 49500 tons, a decrease of 8300 tons compared with that in October. In November, the start-up of enterprises in Guizhou fell to a low level. At the same time, some enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan kept shutting down under the pressure of environmental protection, and the market supply declined.
3、 Import and export volume of yellow phosphorus in 2019
According to customs statistics, in October 2019, China’s yellow phosphorus export volume was 211.2 tons, up 100% month on month, down 36.54% year on year, with an average export price of US $2920.19/ton. Among them, 140.8 tons were sent to Japan, accounting for about 67%; 70.4 tons were sent to the Jinma customs area of taipeng, accounting for 33%. In 2019, the cumulative export volume is 922.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.05%.
In August 2019, 19.2 tons of yellow phosphorus will be imported from Vietnam; in October, 52.35 tons of yellow phosphorus will be imported from Vietnam again, in addition to US $136518, the average price of that month will be US $2607.79/ton; the cumulative import of yellow phosphorus will be 71.55 tons. At present, the general tax rate of yellow phosphorus import in China is 30%. Considering the cost of tariff and transportation, large-scale import of yellow phosphorus is still not feasible. It is predicted that in recent years, China’s yellow phosphorus is still mainly produced and sold by itself, with small import and export volume.
4、 Market analysis of yellow phosphorus in 2019
Figure: P value curve of yellow phosphorus products in 2019
As a small-scale variety, the market trend of yellow phosphorus in the first half of this year is similar to that of previous years, showing a calm trading pattern, and the price has been kept between 15000-16000 yuan / ton. However, a CCTV report in early July made the yellow phosphorus market immediately boiling. In a few days, the price jumped continuously, with a maximum increase of more than 10000 yuan. The highest price of this year appeared in July, when the yellow phosphorus price was 25000-26000 yuan / ton. After a period of unreasonable increase, the lowest price of yellow phosphorus in August returned to 15500 yuan / ton. In September, the overall supply was lower, and the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market began to rise again. From October to November, the yellow phosphorus market tends to run smoothly. In December, the downstream traders mainly wait and see. They are more cautious in taking goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. At present, the quotation is around 17800 yuan / ton.
5、 Future forecast
According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of business, social and chemical branch, in 2019, under the pressure of environmental protection policies, many production enterprises in China’s yellow phosphorus industry stopped production, and the operating rate could not be significantly improved. The yellow phosphorus market is always in a state of insufficient supply. After two large fluctuations, the yellow phosphorus price remained high. The price of yellow phosphorus has been consolidation at a high level for a long time. Most of the downstream traders are wait-and-see. The terminal customers have obvious resistance to the high-end price, and are cautious in taking goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. At the end of December, we will focus on the shutdown and rectification of yellow phosphorus enterprises. With the resumption of production of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou Province on the agenda, it is expected that yellow phosphorus prices will have a certain reduction space in 2020.
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