I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, last week (10.14-18) the domestic adipic acid market was slightly lower than that of the previous week, and the dealers’ quotation was mainly reduced. The market price was reduced to 50-100 yuan / ton, with a decline percentage of 0.21%. As of the end of the week, the quotation is generally 8300-8450 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

Last week, the adipic acid market continued to maintain a weak market after the festival. Last week, the market did not improve. The traditional peak season of “silver ten” was completely blown out in the middle and late ten days. At present, most regions of the country maintain stability, and some of them have declined. Most dealers have successively reduced their quotations by about 100 yuan / ton. The markets in East China and South China have declined. The market atmosphere is slightly bleak, and dealers are active. Goods oriented, the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, the transaction is slightly stalemate, and there is room for businesses to save and transfer profits.

In terms of supply, affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders, the market supply only keeps increasing, and many dealers say that the inventory pressure is large, the plant operation rate of manufacturers is high, the market inventory and the manufacturer’s inventory have increased, and the market has staged stock up behavior at the end of September, and now the downstream procurement is still rational. Affected by this, the stock taking in the middle of the month slightly slows down. Among them, there are also relatively low-cost sources flooding the market. There is a certain bargaining space for products, and the price difference between the market price offer and the firm offer remains. Dealers in North China, East China and South China adjust their quotations to varying degrees, and most regions maintain a stable market.

In terms of demand, the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The traditional “silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. The downstream operating rate is still slightly insufficient. The operating rate is basically above 50%, which does not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene market is still sluggish, and the downward trend is more and more clear. From the 8th to the 18th of October after the festival, according to business. According to social monitoring, the decline rate of pure benzene has reached 6.13%, which undoubtedly brings more cost negative to adipic acid market. At the same time, adipic acid manufacturers also have a certain space to make profit shipment possible. The market has gradually returned to plain, and the market has entered the inventory elimination cycle. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the reference price in the East China market is about 8300-8450 yuan / ton, and the quotation in South China is generally 8400-8500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to adipic acid analyst of business and chemical branch, adipic acid is still sluggish and not getting better in the near future. At the same time, the whole chemical industry is also in a downward cycle. According to the Statistics Bureau, PPI fell 1.2% year on year in September, and the industry’s negative also covers the adipic acid industry chain. In addition, the lack of downstream demand is still the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the haze. Adipic acid market is expected to remain weak in the short term.