According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2595 yuan/ton to around 2832 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.15% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 28.65%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.77%. The domestic methanol market trading is still mainly influenced by geopolitics, and the rising sentiment on the futures side is gradually transmitted to the spot market; Supported by the continuous destocking of enterprises, the increasing demand for locally sourced olefins, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, methanol prices have shown a significant surge.

As of the close on March 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 2754 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2887 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2723 yuan/ton. It closed at 2805 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 2171545, the position is 584205, and the daily increase is 13631.
On the cost side, downstream coal enterprises have resumed work and production one after another, and demand expectations have increased. Market prices are mainly stable. The cost impact is mixed.
On the demand side, the downstream end is affected by the sharp rise in raw material methanol, and the prices of various downstream products are rising accordingly. Currently, the profitability is quite considerable, MTO、 The profit growth of the acetic acid and methane chloride industries is the most significant. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
Supply side, extended device maintenance; Some devices have been restored; The overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. Recently, there has been an increase in methanol recovery facilities and a decrease in maintenance and production reduction facilities, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on March 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $494-496 per ton, up $39.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 106-108 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 380-382 euros/ton, up 13 euros/ton.
The future forecast shows that the expected import volume will decrease in the near future, and the performance of upstream destocking will be affected, but the overall destocking intensity is weaker than expected. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be mainly dominated by strong consolidation.