According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9550 yuan/ton on April 16th, and 9690.00 yuan/ton on April 23rd, an increase of 1.47%. The current price has increased by 15.24% year-on-year.
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styrene
The market price of styrene continued to rise this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has continued to rise in the past three months, and the recent market trend has been good. The pure benzene market is strong at a high level, with good cost support, domestic supply, and a decrease in mainstream warehouse inventory. Downstream terminal demand is mainly in demand, and the styrene market continues to rise.
Cost side
Recently, the overall increase in pure benzene in China has been good. The price difference between Shandong and East China is still relatively wide, with some sources of goods heading south for arbitrage. The demand side in the East China market is actively stocking up, and spot traders are buying up and entering the market. Most refineries in Shandong continue to raise their prices. After the price increase, market buying continued and transactions were better.
Supply side
In April, there were many inspections of the styrene unit. On the 18th, Shandong Lihuayi’s 80000 ton/year styrene unit produced 160 tons per day, and a new 720000 ton/year unit was shut down for maintenance. Styrene inventory remained low, and domestic supply remained at a relatively low level, which was beneficial for the styrene market.
Demand side
Recently, all three downstream markets of styrene have risen. The PS market has seen a slight increase, driven by the demand for home appliance packaging. The fast material circulation speed in East and South China has accelerated, and the overall transaction atmosphere has accelerated. The market is expected to rise. Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a high rise. The domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, with an average weekly operating rate of around 56%. Although there has been a resumption of work in Dagu, Tianjin recently, there will be varying degrees of load reduction in Haijiang, Shandong, and Lihuayi in the future, and the supply of goods on site will still be reduced. The supply side has strong support for ABS spot goods. EPS is supported by the cost side, and the terminal air conditioning industry is entering a peak season. EPS is rising in the market under dual positive conditions.
Technical analysis
There is a high possibility of an increase in the future market of styrene, and spot prices may continue to rise. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since December 17, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 21, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 38.11%.
Historical price monitoring [low to medium]: Since the beginning of 2024, the price of styrene has been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring positions are 1-year high, 2-year medium high, and 3-year medium high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of styrene in the past three years is 8577.09 yuan/ton, with a median value of 8465 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 7163.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 9766.67 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 2526.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -76.67 yuan/ton.
According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the recent decline in crude oil prices has led to poor cost support, and some of the previously repaired styrene units have restarted. There is an expectation of an increase in domestic styrene industry production, while analysts from Business Society predict a slight decline in the styrene market.
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