Recent price trends of urea

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2608.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2587.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.81%. Weekend prices fell by 20.99% year-on-year. On May 15th, the urea commodity index was 117.91, a decrease of 2.44 points from yesterday, a decrease of 22.60% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 112.07% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weak cost support, average downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 4048.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3992.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.38%. The weekend price has decreased by 42.45% year-on-year; The price of anthracite dropped slightly. This weekend, the price of anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 1160 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly decreased, from 3233.33 yuan/ton last weekend to 3183.33 yuan/ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.55%, and the weekend price has decreased by 40.31% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly declined, weakening support for urea prices. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly decreased this week, dropping from 7525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7450.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.00%.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea ranges from 16 to 17