1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners rose this week. On July 10, the average market price in Shandong was 4588.25 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from 4495.75 yuan / ton on July 4.

On July 10, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 356.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.68% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 433.52% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries rose as a whole, the inventory of refineries was low, the shipment was good, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price has fallen. Affected by high inflation and interest rate hike, the risk of economic recession will put pressure on oil prices. The game point of the future market is the supply shortage caused by geography and the economic recession risk that may be derived from the Fed’s interest rate hike. Taking into consideration, under the premise of tight supply and demand, the driving force of sharp decline is not very strong, but the oil market may intensify the shock in the future, the amplitude will increase, and the market risk will also increase.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The market price of metallic silicon continues to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum continued to decline, and as of July 10, the price was 18490.00 yuan / ton.

Analysts of petroleum coke of business agency believe that: international crude oil fell this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke is limited; However, the inventory of local refining enterprises was low, the shipment of petroleum coke was good, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the inventory increased at the weekend. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.