Aluminum prices continued to rise on the 11th

According to the data of business agency, on January 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 21633.33 yuan / ton, and yesterday’s average market price was 21240 yuan / ton, up 1.85%; Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1), an increase of 6.20%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 10.75% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 15.73% recently.

Main cause of recovery

The main reasons for the recovery of aluminum prices in this round: mainly based on the improvement of supply expectations, especially the European energy crisis, the rise of electricity prices caused by natural gas factors, resulting in the reduction of production of many aluminum plants in Europe; In addition, the domestic supply side reform has achieved remarkable results in previous years, and the production capacity has basically formed a ceiling. In recent 1-2 years, the production has also been affected by the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”. Recently, the social inventory data of aluminum ingots have improved. As of the 10th, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 752000 tons, down 24000 tons from last Thursday; The increase in downstream enquiries and the superposition of the acceleration effect before the aluminum terminal consumption Festival have supported the overall strong operation of domestic aluminum prices in the near future.

Future forecast

Near the Spring Festival, the cyclical accumulation effect before and after the festival tests the market tolerance. The recent aluminum price trend is good, but it should not be too high. It is expected that the vibration is strong and the operation is dominated.