In 2021, the domestic ethyl acetate Market generally showed a fluctuating upward trend. Specifically, it rose in the first half of the year. There was a correction in the market from July to August, and it rose sharply in September, reaching a new high of more than five years. The market gradually fell in the fourth quarter and the market returned to rationality. According to the monitoring of business society, the annual increase of ethyl acetate reached 24.15%. The main reason is that the upstream cost is good and the downstream demand is improved.

Let’s take a look at the ethyl acetate Market in stages:

In the first half of the year, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose in shock, and the price rose from the lowest 6600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 9800 yuan / ton in mid May, an increase of 3200 yuan / ton or 48.5%. Firstly, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is mainly driven by the price of raw acetic acid. In particular, the price of acetic acid in China has continued to rise since the fourth quarter of 2020. In the first half of this year, domestic acetic acid continued to rise, with an increase of more than 70% in the first half of this year. Affected by the shortage of supply, the price in Jiangsu once exceeded the 8000 mark, reaching the highest level in recent ten years. The sharp rise of acetic acid directly drives the downstream ethyl ester to rise. However, it is obvious that the increase of ethyl ester is far less than that of acetic acid. Therefore, ethyl ester manufacturers have been in the stage of loss for a long time. In terms of demand, the market recovered gradually in the later stage of the epidemic, the downstream demand increased, the rigid demand for raw materials in the terminal market was still in progress, and the output of ethyl acetate was significantly higher than that of last year. This year, the output of ethyl acetate was about 900000 tons, up 12.5% year-on-year.

7. In August, the price of ethyl acetate began to fall, and the price fell from the highest point of 9800 yuan to 7200 yuan, a decrease of more than 17%. This period of time is in the traditional off-season of the market, and the downstream demand slows down. At the same time, the repeated epidemic situation in Jiangsu and other places has brought certain restrictions to market transportation. The shipment of manufacturers has been affected, and the price has begun to fall sharply. At the same time, it is also the resistance of the downstream that forces the high price.

Then, September ushered in the largest increase of the whole year. According to the monitoring of business society, ethyl acetate rose by 30% in less than a month from September 1 to 24. The price reached the highest point of the whole year, 10850 yuan / ton, which is also the highest point in recent five years. On the one hand, “golden nine” traditional consumption peak season. The main reason is that the short-term serious supply shortage has brought about the rapid development of prices. With the implementation of the dual control policy, in September, ethyl acetate units in Shandong, Jiangsu and South China markets stopped or reduced their load in a large area, and the overall operating rate of the market fell to an unprecedented low, less than 30%. At the same time, the price of raw acetic acid rose sharply and the cost soared. And downstream factories prepare goods before the festival, and the downstream demand has increased unabated. Multiple positive factors helped the ethyl ester Market reach a new high.

In the fourth quarter, the ethyl acetate market began to callback, and the price fell all the way, from 10850 yuan to 8800 yuan / ton. The decrease was about 2000 yuan. On the one hand, acetic acid opens the downward channel, which is bad for the downstream ethyl ester. More importantly, the contradiction between market supply and demand is prominent, and the increase of supply pressure leads to the continuous price reduction and inventory arrangement of enterprises, and the market price keeps falling. Although the Thorpe unit was overhauled in November, the operating rate of domestic units was generally high and the market supply was sufficient. However, affected by the weather, the terminal enterprises are in the off-season of production, the new orders are limited, and the downstream procurement slows down gradually, which brings bad news to ethyl acetate. The contradiction between supply and demand has led to a long-term decline in the price of ethyl acetate.

2022 outlook

In terms of cost, there may be more new capacity of glacial acetic acid in the upstream in the future, which is expected to suppress the price in the future, which will alleviate the profit situation of ethyl ester plants in the downstream to a certain extent. At the same time, the price of acetic acid is expected to return to rationality, which will also suppress the price of ethyl acetate to a certain extent.

In terms of supply and demand, at present, the concentration of domestic ethyl acetate industry is high, and there is overcapacity. Although some enterprises have withdrawn from the market in recent years, the market supply pressure has been reduced. However, the pressure on the supply side has not been completely resolved in the future, and some production capacity still needs to be put into operation in the future. Zhuhai Qianxin ethyl acetate plant with an annual output of 300000 tons is planned to be put into operation in 2022. It is expected that the market supply will still be in a loose pattern in 2022. Domestic demand will continue to grow in 2022, but the increase is likely to slow down. It is comprehensively expected that the price of domestic ethyl acetate next year may be weaker than this year, and the amplitude will be further reduced.