Trend of metallic magnesium (11.29-12.3, the same below)

Market analysis this week

Magnesium prices rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the magnesium market maintained a high consolidation operation. Although there was a slight stalemate between supply and demand, the magnesium plants intended to be firm and stable in their quotation. Since Wednesday, the quotations of some magnesium plants were biased towards high prices, but the downstream acceptance was not strong. There was a small peak on Thursday. By Friday, the average ex factory tax spot exchange price of domestic magnesium ingots was 38000 yuan / ton.

As of December 3, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 38000-38100 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 38100-38200 yuan / ton.

Cost side impact

In terms of thermal coal: affected by the snowfall in some areas of Shaanxi, individual prices fell slightly, and the overall price operated weakly and stably. According to the data of business society, the average market price of thermal coal was 1085 yuan / ton, the supply of origin increased, and the production capacity was released, but the overall market was deadlocked.

In terms of ferrosilicon: the mainstream quotation of 75 ferrosilicon in the main production area of Ningxia is around 8400-8600 yuan / ton, the price of large materials of blue carbon is adjusted to 1730 yuan / ton, and the price of small and medium materials of blue carbon is adjusted to 1700 yuan / ton. The notice of Zhongwei Bureau of industry and information technology and Ecological Environment Bureau on peak shifting production in some industrial industries in winter and spring 2021-2022 involves 14 ferroalloy enterprises. However, from the current market reflection, it is slightly numb to the double control policy of Zhongwei.

Impact of environmental protection inspector’s news

Recently, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team carried out supervision work in Shaanxi in December. The commencement of magnesium plant was affected by this news, which made the transaction price of magnesium rise rapidly. However, according to the sales personnel of magnesium plant, it is unclear whether there is a production reduction plan for the follow-up production of this environmental protection supervision team.

Impact of market supply shortage

The overall inventory of the magnesium plant itself is small, and orders are basically arranged, and some orders have been arranged until next month. The joint quotation of Zhouwei magnesium plant has driven the market, which makes it more difficult to find low-cost goods in the market. The rise of prices also makes downstream customers affected by the mentality of “buying up but not buying down”, which speeds up the pace of transaction. However, the downstream is not willing to receive goods at high prices and maintains cautious procurement.

Future forecast

On the whole, in view of the current low spot inventory of factories and the strong price support sentiment of magnesium manufacturers, it is difficult to find low price spot in the market. Superimposed with the inspection news of environmental protection inspectors in Shaanxi, magnesium manufacturers have good expectations for the future market and are expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term, but the downstream is not active in high price procurement, and there is limited room for significant fluctuation.