1、 Price data

As of November 14, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7413.25 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from 7425.75 yuan / ton on November 8. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7500 yuan / ton.

As of November 14, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7250.00 yuan / ton, up 0.38% from 7222.50 yuan / ton on November 8. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7100-7400 yuan / ton.

On November 14, the naphtha commodity index was 91.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.47% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 116.60% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated and fell, straight run naphtha rose slightly, the downstream demand was dominated, the market trading was negative, the market operation was cautious, and most of them were on the sidelines.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose and fell this week. On the whole, prices rose slightly. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve tightened its expectations on monetary policy and reduced the scale of bond purchase. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week, dragging down oil prices. However, OPEC + maintains a cautious plan to increase production. In the short term, the situation of short supply in the crude oil market may be difficult to improve. Supported by this, oil prices rose this week.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of toluene fell sharply this week and began to fall rapidly on Thursday. The price was 6590.40 yuan / ton on November 5 and 6500 yuan / ton on November 12, down 1.37% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell this week. The price of mixed xylene was 6340 yuan / ton on November 5 and 6220 yuan / ton on November 12, down 1.89% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 12th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 4 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (7.44%), MTBE (1.44%) and WTI crude oil (0.39%). A total of 12 commodities decreased month on month, and 3 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coke (- 10.42%), fuel oil (- 6.99%) and diesel (- 5.57%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.05%.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil fluctuated this week and the naphtha market was weak; In the early stage, olefins and aromatics just need to be released, the market trading limit is eliminated, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that naphtha refining may continue to decline in the near future.