1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose this week, and the price trend of North and South was divided. On April 11, the price of toluene was 5452 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 18), the price was 5641 yuan / ton, up 189 yuan / ton or 3.47% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 100 / + 250 (yuan / ton). Toluene inventories at ports in East China rose this week. This week, the toluene Market in Shandong Province was driven by the continuous rise of gasoline, the market became warmer and the price rose. In addition, the strong crude oil provides favorable support, and the East China market has a strong bullish mentality. Due to the sales pressure in South China, the price is weak. In terms of external market, as of April 16, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $707 / T, up by US $27 / T or 3.97% on April 9, and the price of imported toluene from East China was US $730 / T, up by US $27 / T or 3.84% on April 9.
In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news was positive and the price rose. Good news: IEA and OPEC increase global crude oil demand, US commercial crude oil inventory decreases continuously, and refinery operation rate increases; bad news: OPEC + decides to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places is severe. On April 9, Brent rose $3.64/barrel, or 5.85%; WTI rose $3.84/barrel, or 6.47%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China stopped falling and turned to rising this week. The price of domestic goods was 16333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.51% over last week and 64.43% over the same period last year. The domestic market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is weak, the downstream demand follow-up is general, the inquiry enthusiasm is not high, just need to purchase.
In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was the same as last week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The price trend of domestic PX market is stable, the operating rate is more than 60%, there are more overhauls of overseas units, and the price trend of domestic PX remains high. As of April 16, closing prices in Asia were $838-840 / T FOB Korea and $848-850 / T CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Crude oil still has upward momentum, with better cost support. However, the speculation brought about by the continuous rise of gasoline is limited, and the downstream demand has not changed significantly. Coupled with the restart of some maintenance units, toluene market supply is expected to increase. Overall, toluene may maintain a weak and stable trend next week. Focus on the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene unit spring maintenance dynamic, toluene late arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.