Recent price trends of urea

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2608.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2587.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.81%. Weekend prices fell by 20.99% year-on-year. On May 15th, the urea commodity index was 117.91, a decrease of 2.44 points from yesterday, a decrease of 22.60% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 112.07% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weak cost support, average downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 4048.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3992.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.38%. The weekend price has decreased by 42.45% year-on-year; The price of anthracite dropped slightly. This weekend, the price of anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 1160 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly decreased, from 3233.33 yuan/ton last weekend to 3183.33 yuan/ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.55%, and the weekend price has decreased by 40.31% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly declined, weakening support for urea prices. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly decreased this week, dropping from 7525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7450.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.00%.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea ranges from 16 to 17

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 12th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20500.00 yuan/ton, which was generally unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 15.38% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 12th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25333.33 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 11.76% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the price of upstream raw materials was generally weak. As of May 12, the domestic price of chloroform fell 11.7% and the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid fell 1.53% in the month. The cost of raw materials suppressed the price of domestic refrigerant R22 to a certain extent. Supported by the downstream demand, the enterprise quotation was generally stable, and the domestic R22 market price was generally stable this week.

As of May 12th, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price fell by 1.53% during the month, while the overall price of trichloroethylene remained stable at a low level, while the raw material price remained stable and weak. Affected by the peak season of refrigerants, the overall quotation of enterprises remained stable. This week, the domestic R134a price continued to remain stable and move forward.

In terms of raw materials, overall, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has once again fallen, and the overall low level of refrigerant raw materials is weak. The lower cost will form a certain pressure on future refrigerant prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, under the low-pressure system of raw material costs, it is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will decline to varying degrees in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8264 yuan/ton on May 8th, and the average price on May 12th was 8218 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.55% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 8530 yuan/ton on May 8th and 8487 yuan/ton on May 12th, with a decrease of 0.50% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9087 yuan/ton on May 8th, and the average price on May 12th was 9162 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.83%.

Polyethylene fell mainly this week, while LLDPE and LDPE prices fell. HDPE prices remained stable after rising, with limited upside potential. On the cost side, international crude oil futures fell, suppressing the weakening of the polyethylene market. Enterprises lower their prices, and traders adjust accordingly. On the supply side, temporary parking and maintenance devices have increased, resulting in a decrease in polyethylene production. In terms of demand, agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, with poor order volume and limited procurement on demand.

The increase in equipment maintenance for domestic enterprises has alleviated the pressure on polyethylene supply to a certain extent, limiting its potential for decline; The demand in the agricultural film market is not good, which is bearish for the polyethylene market. It is expected that polyethylene may be mainly adjusted to be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1176.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84% compared to last week, and the current price has dropped by 12.41% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fluctuated and dropped. It can be seen from the figure above that the recent market of formaldehyde mainly fluctuates slightly, and this week’s market has declined. As of May 11, the mainstream market value price in Shandong was 1120-1280 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fell weakly, downstream sheet metal factories started smoothly, and demand support on the market was average. Market trading sentiment was poor, and formaldehyde manufacturers led the formaldehyde market to decline in order to ship.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is fluctuating and declining, with Jining’s methanol factory price reference being around 2300 yuan/ton for cash withdrawal, and Linyi’s delivery price reference being around 2350 yuan/ton for cash withdrawal. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2400 yuan/ton for cash remittance, while the reference price for the methanol market in Dongying, Shandong is 2320-2330 yuan/ton for cash remittance.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream sheet factories are maintaining their demand for procurement. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and fall in the near future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 6, 2023, the reference factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4766 yuan/ton. Compared to May 1, 2023, the price remained basically unchanged, and compared to January 1, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4800 yuan/ton), it was reduced by 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the first week of May (5.1-5.6), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market remained stable and consolidated as a whole. After the holiday, there was little change in the supply and demand side of dimethyl carbonate on the market, and the overall market was relatively calm. Supply side: After the holiday, the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is generally stable. On the demand side: The downstream demand segment is generally stable, with more new orders and more rigid procurement. As of May 6, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4500-4800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the domestic market is light, and the market inquiry atmosphere is relatively calm. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly be stable and subject to minor changes. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

April plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the DBP price was 9237.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.52% compared to the DBP price of 9675 yuan/ton on April 1st. The prices of raw materials have decreased, cost support has decreased, and downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm. In April, DBP prices fluctuated and fell.

Market situation of raw material products

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.64% from the price of 8625 yuan/ton on April 1st. The price increase of neighboring benzene has slowed down, and the support for the cost increase of phthalic anhydride has weakened. Downstream demand is poor, and the market for phthalic anhydride in April was weak, increasing the pressure on the price decline of phthalic anhydride in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the price of n-butanol was 7166.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.33% compared to the price of n-butanol on April 1st, which was 7733.33 yuan/ton. In April, the equipment construction of n-butanol enterprises was stable, with sufficient supply of n-butanol and weak downstream demand. The price of n-butanol fell weakly in April, and the downward pressure on n-butanol prices in the future increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the price of isooctanol was 9157.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared to the price of isooctanol on April 1st, which was 9428.57 yuan/ton. In April, the production of isooctanol enterprises was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol decreased. The production of plasticizer enterprises was temporarily stable at a low level, and the weak consolidation of isooctanol will be the main trend in the future.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in April, the prices of raw materials for plasticizer DBP, such as phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, and n-butanol, fluctuated and fell, increasing the pressure on raw materials to decline. On the demand side, downstream demand is weak. In the future, cost support has decreased and demand is weak, with plasticizer DBP market mainly fluctuating and falling.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the “V” shaped trend of the domestic aggregated MDI market in April. From April 1 to 27, the price of the domestic aggregate MDI market fell first and then rose to 15860 yuan/ton, with the maximum amplitude of 4.92% in the cycle, and the price fell 15.82% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the aggregated MDI market significantly declined. The recovery on the demand side is poor, and market support is gradually weakening. Traders have significantly lowered their prices, but actual orders are still relatively low. In mid month, downstream demand side follow-up was weak, and overall market confidence was insufficient. At the same time, the supply of goods was relatively abundant, which limited market support. The aggregated MDI market continued to be weak. In the latter half of the month, the MDI price situation in the early stage has dropped to a low level, and the inquiry atmosphere has heated up. The buying ability has strengthened, and the mentality of traders has improved. The quotation has risen in a narrow range and the transaction is good.

On the supply side, the listed price of aggregated MDI in April 2023 was 19800 yuan/ton, which remained stable month on month.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: In April, the domestic pure benzene market saw a gradual upward trend. On April 27th, the benchmark price of pure benzene at Shangshang Society was 7442.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% compared to the beginning of this month (7242.17 yuan/ton). The price of domestic pure benzene market rose significantly, the price of international crude oil rose significantly, the listed price of main units rose, and the domestic supply of pure benzene remained low. The downstream demand of the pure benzene industry chain continues to recover, with sufficient support for the price of pure benzene. The supply and demand side of pure benzene is good, and prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. In April, aniline first fell and then rose. On April 27th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 11775.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -10.46% compared to the beginning of this month (13150.00 yuan/ton). The cost side of short-term aggregated MDI is relatively favorable.

On the demand side, downstream demand is just in need of follow-up, and inventory in the early stage is gradually depleted. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream is actively stocking up. The demand side for short-term aggregated MDI is slightly positive.

In the future market forecast, both cost and demand are positive, and analysts from Business Society Aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will remain high.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and fell in April, with overall spot prices of various brands decreasing. As of April 26th, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Society was around 15583.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.79% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the bisphenol A market fluctuated and improved at the end of this month. In the early stage, international crude oil continued to strengthen, while pure benzene and phenol in the upstream raw materials increased, and bisphenol A was supported by increased cost. As the holiday season approaches in the latter half of the year, the enthusiasm for entering the downstream epoxy resin market has increased, and the market negotiation atmosphere has improved. Holders have a relatively stable mentality, and their prices are quite high. It is expected that the market situation may continue to rise.

In terms of supply: In April, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs was adjusted to around 70%, and the industry is still at a three-year high load with abundant supply. In addition, some maintenance plans have been delayed and new devices have been put into operation within the month. Overall, the positive impact of April’s negative reduction on the market has been smoothed out, and the expected increase in inventory and supply in the later period has resulted in poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: In April, downstream PC buyers just needed to maintain production, and the business owners had a more wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation also fell short of expectations, with prices falling. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the actual stocking operation has not improved, with light on-site trading. Traders’ mentality has weakened, and their offers are generally in line with the market.

Future Market Forecast

In April, the PC market was volatile, and the upstream bisphenol A market rose after consolidation, which improved the support for PC costs. However, the high load of domestic polymerization plants remains stagnant, and there is no improvement in demand side follow-up, while supply side pressure remains high. It is expected that the PC market will take some time to overcome the supply-demand contradiction and may continue to operate in a weak position.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (April 25th): 23.60 yuan/ton

On April 25, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly, 6 yuan/ton higher than that on April 24, up 3.04%, and 34.32% lower than that on the same period last year. The recent market situation of upstream liquid chlorine has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The market situation of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

In the future, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may slightly fluctuate and fall, with the average market price around 190 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 24th, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9465.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Thursday (April 20th).

The recent market situation of epoxy propane is mainly stable. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been weak, and the cost support has weakened. Last Thursday, factory shipments slightly increased, and downstream wait-and-see has followed up appropriately. On the weekend, some downstream companies just need to stock up before the holiday, and inventory pressure has eased. The epoxy propane market is mainly stable and wait-and-see. At the beginning of this week, downstream companies remained the main follower, and the market trading atmosphere is still good. On the 24th, the mainstream quotation for epoxy propane in the Shandong region was around 9550-9700 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the recent price of propylene in Shandong has fallen. On April 21, the reference price of propylene was 7110.60, down 0.39% compared with April 1 (7138.60).

The epoxy propane analyst at Business Society believes that the current cost support is average, and the supply side operates without pressure, which has some support for the market. Downstream companies are still following up, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market may rise in the short term and wait and see for consolidation and operation. More attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.