In October, the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply and stabilized after falling sharply

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the DOP price plummeted in October, and the overall DOP market returned to stability after the sharp rise and fall in October. Affected by centralized procurement after the National Day holiday and manufacturers’ power rationing and production reduction, DOP prices soared by 18.38% from October 1 to 11; With the end of centralized procurement and the recovery of plasticizer manufacturers, DOP prices plummeted. From October 12 to October 19, DOP prices plummeted by 11.60%; After a week of sharp decline, the DOP market entered a relatively calm period. From the 20th to the 27th, the DOP price fluctuated slightly, down only 3.47%. As of October 27, the DOP price was 12500 yuan / ton, up 1.4% from the DOP price of 12375 yuan / ton on October 1; Overall, DOP prices fluctuated and stabilized in October.

In October, the price of isooctanol soared, plummeted and fluctuated continuously

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol soared and plummeted in October. In early October, the price of isooctanol soared due to the impact of centralized procurement after the festival and the soaring price of raw material coal to syngas; With the end of centralized procurement, the demand for isooctanol declined, the downstream PVC price of plasticizer plummeted, the purchasing intention of plasticizer manufacturers declined seriously, and the downstream manufacturers of plasticizer no longer paid for the high price, the high price isooctanol lost support, the downward pressure of isooctanol increased, and the price of isooctanol plummeted; After that, the high price of isooctanol raw material coal syngas stimulated the rise of isooctanol price. However, with the national macro-control, the rising momentum of coal related products was blocked, the rise of isooctanol was frustrated again, and the price of isooctanol fell again. However, due to the high cost of isooctanol, there is limited room for the decline of isooctanol in the future.

The price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise in October

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise in October. Affected by the rise in the price of phthalic anhydride and the start-up of downstream plasticizer manufacturers, the demand for phthalic anhydride increased, the phthalic anhydride market continued to be strong, the cost of DOP rose sharply, and the driving force of DOP rise increased.

PVC rose first and then fell in October

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price first rose and then fell in October. After the festival, PVC manufacturers purchased intensively, and the PVC price rose sharply. As of October 12, the PVC price soared by 15.2%; After centralized procurement, the price of PVC plummeted. As of October 27, the price of PVC plummeted by 23.75% compared with October 12. As of October 27, PVC prices fell by 12.02% in October; Overall, the PVC market plummeted in October, the demand for plasticizers declined, the downstream customers of plasticizers were less motivated to purchase, and the downward pressure on DOP prices was great.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at the business agency, believes that in early October, affected by the centralized procurement after the festival and the reduction of power supply, the market demand surged in the short term, the supply shortage intensified, and the product price of the plasticizer industry chain soared; After the end of centralized procurement, the start of plasticizer manufacturers picked up, the supply of plasticizer increased, the demand decreased, and the product price of plasticizer industrial chain plummeted. After two weeks of adjustment, after the 20th, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain products are relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer has entered a relatively stable period. The main influencing factors of plasticizer DOP price are raw material cost and downstream purchase intention. The price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride continued to rise in October, and the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell. After October, the price still kept rising slightly, the cost of DOP was high, and the space for DOP to fall was limited; Downstream PVC prices continued to decline, downstream demand for high DOP was insufficient, procurement intention declined seriously, and DOP fell under great pressure. Overall, DOP has great downward pressure in the future, and DOP prices are expected to fluctuate slightly.

Trade name: lithium iron phosphate

Latest price (October 26): 86000.00 yuan / ton

As of October 26, the lithium iron phosphate market was mainly stable, with a price increase of 8.86% compared with the same period last week and 34.38% compared with the same period last month. The price was dominated, and the upstream price was high. Lithium iron phosphate followed the upward trend all the way. The negotiation focus was high, the trading atmosphere was strong, and the lithium iron phosphate Market maintained a stable, medium and strong trend.

Future forecast: the lithium iron phosphate Market is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term, with a narrow range of shocks.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China rose this week. On October 22, the average price of sulfur production was 2083.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.29% compared with 2036.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and an increase of 6.84% month on month.

The sulfur market trend continued to be stable, medium and upward this week. The refinery inventory in various regions in China maintained a low level. The downstream factories mainly purchased on demand. The enterprise shipped smoothly and had a positive attitude on the site. During the week, the refinery in various regions adjusted the quotation according to their own shipment. The price of liquid sulfur in East China was temporarily stable, and the mainstream price was 2010-2140 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in North China will be increased by 30 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 1840-1940 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in Shandong will be increased by 30 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 2030-2040 yuan / ton. As of October 22, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region varieties October 16th October 22nd Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 1900-1990 yuan / ton 1900-1990 yuan / ton 0 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1890-1950 yuan / ton 1920-1980 yuan / ton 30 yuan / ton

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 2080 yuan / ton 2150 yuan / ton 70 yuan / ton

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market remained stable, the domestic market demand tended to be rational, the market trading was mainly on demand, and the shipment remained stable. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises of Monoammonium have no obvious intention to purchase raw materials and hold a wait-and-see attitude. Diammonium enterprises still mainly issue early-stage orders, with good cost support, downstream purchase on demand, and high diammonium prices. In terms of supply and demand performance, the ammonium phosphate market operates smoothly.

According to the sulfur analysts of the business society, the domestic sulfur market is relatively strong, the US gold market is high, the port supply is tight, and the mentality of the freight merchants is wait-and-see, which provides effective support for the domestic refinery market. In addition, the warehouse position of domestic refinery enterprises remains low and the shipment is stable. It is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted and operated at a high level, and pay attention to the market follow-up.

Commodity index: on October 22, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 127.93, up 2.4 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 51.72% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that the market of water treatment products continued to rise this week. The manufacturer was still cautious in quotation, pricing and delivery were subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation was not accepted. In fact, it was subject to payment and order arrangement. However, compared with the early stage, the quotation at the supply end was chaotic, the downstream procurement pressure cost increased significantly, and the transaction was more difficult.

As shown in the figure, according to the data of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China has risen sharply recently. On October 18, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride was 2255.56 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.4%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose this week, and the quotation rose sharply from 334 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 512 yuan / ton on Friday. The market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market situation of downstream white carbon black and ammonium chloride is adjusted at a high level, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the maintenance of enterprises has increased recently, the supply of hydrochloric acid is tight, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 6160 yuan / ton on the 18th and 6744 yuan / ton on the 22nd, up 9.48% week on week. Recently, the temperature dropped sharply, the heating season came, the demand side support increased, the market trading was positive, the sales pressure of liquid plants was small, and the price of feed gas increased, the supply in some regions was tightened, and the cost supply continued to boost the market. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will maintain an upward trend, but considering that the downstream acceptance still needs to be followed up after the continuous rise, the increase slowed down, Narrow amplitude fluctuation is dominant.

As for the future, subject to the high price of upstream raw materials and the great pressure of downstream procurement of water treatment, the price of polyaluminium chloride is likely to remain high in the short term. However, with the slowdown of the rise of bulk commodities and even the correction of the trend, especially the restriction of demand reduction, it is more likely to gradually weaken in the medium and long term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the recent trend of PA6 domestic market fluctuated, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of October 21, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Zhongtong was about 17833.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 2.88% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream caprolactam, the current raw material pure benzene fluctuates and rises, and the cost side support is acceptable. The supply side is tight, and caprolactam runs at a high level after rising. Downstream on-demand procurement, enterprises start low.

Recent upstream caprolactam price stagflation finishing operation, PA6 cost side support is acceptable. The cost pressure caused by the high level of raw materials is large, and the negative profit situation of the polymerization plant has eased through its own load and order adjustment. In terms of demand, it is still the traditional peak demand season in the near future, but environmental protection policies such as double restrictions affect the load of terminal enterprises, users’ goods taking situation is not strong, and there is a lot of wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the recent cost side support of caprolactam for PA6 is acceptable, and the spot price of PA6 is high. The terminal demand is affected by the environmental protection policy and does not reach the expected effect in the peak season, and the centralized replenishment market is weakened. The market fundamentals are still stable, and it is expected that the spot price of PA6 may maintain a stable operation in the short term.

At present, the latest quotation of ethylene oxide industrial chain: the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China and Northeast China is 9500 yuan / ton, and that in South China and central China is 9700 yuan / ton. In terms of upstream ethylene, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1190 / T, an increase of US $25 / T compared with the previous trading day, the external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was US $1105 / T, an increase of US $25 / T compared with the previous trading day, and the quotation of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene today was 9500 yuan / T, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Downstream polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer: the ex factory quotation of hPEG of Hubei Lingan technology is 12200 yuan / ton, the price of TPEG is 12500 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic hPEG of Shanghai Dongda chemical is 12200 yuan / ton.

Upstream, due to strong demand, the decline of gasoline and distillate stocks in the United States far exceeded expectations, the global shortage of coal and natural gas, and the overall oil market is still supported. As a crude oil derivative, naphtha moves synchronously with crude oil, the ethylene market is expected to tighten supply, and the price continues to rise. At present, high energy prices will become a long-term factor. The shortage of ethylene oxide supply has not been effectively alleviated. The national development and Reform Commission has taken action to curb coal prices, and ethylene glycol has also fallen. Even if the profit space of MEG and EO is not considered at present, it will take some time for MEG to switch to EO until the market supply can effectively adjust the market supply and demand, and the market is still in a tight pattern. With the support of rising raw material prices, tight supply and demand and a better economic environment, market participants generally believe that the market will continue the high-level operation mode in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China rose this week. On October 15, the average price of sulfur production was 2036.67 yuan / ton, up 3.38% compared with the price of 1970.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4.44% month on month.

This week, the domestic sulfur market was stable and upward, the refinery inventory in various regions remained low, the downstream factories purchased on demand, the enterprise shipped smoothly, and the on-site mentality was positive. The refiners in various regions adjusted the quotation according to their own shipping situation. The price of liquid sulfur in East China was temporarily stable, and the mainstream price was 2010-2140 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in North China was raised by 60 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 1810-1910 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in Shandong will be raised by 60-70 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 2000-2010 yuan / ton. As of October 15, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region varieties October 9th October 15th Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 1900-1990 yuan / ton 1900-1990 yuan / ton 0 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1830-1890 yuan / ton 1890-1950 yuan / ton 60 yuan / ton

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 1980 yuan / ton 2080 yuan / ton 100 yuan / ton

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is running slowly and steadily, the domestic market demand tends to be rational, the market trading is mostly based on on-demand procurement, and the shipment remains stable. The market of Monoammonium is weak, the downstream demand is general, the market atmosphere is weak, and the price of Monoammonium is reduced slightly. The price of diammonium was stable during the week. There were many orders issued by enterprises. The main orders were issued in the early stage. The cost support was good. The downstream was purchased on demand, and the price of diammonium was strong. In terms of supply and demand performance, the market situation of ammonium phosphate is waiting and finishing operation.

According to the sulfur analysts of the business society, the domestic sulfur market is strong at a high level, the supply of port goods is tight, it is difficult to find low-cost spot goods on the site, the mentality of cargo carriers is bullish, and they have strong support for the domestic sulfur market. In addition, the shipment of domestic refineries is OK, and the enterprise warehouse is running at a low level. It is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out at a high level, and pay attention to the market follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on October 18 was 12900.00 yuan / ton, up 166.67 yuan / ton compared with 12733.33 at the beginning of the week, up 1.31% during the week and 4.31% compared with the beginning of the month

2、 Market analysis

After the National Day holiday, the hiips market continued to rise. The increase last week was not large, while the increase in the benzene market was more obvious. The main raw materials for this round of price rise are due to the first rise and then fall of styrene market price and narrow range shock. In addition, the market supply is slightly tightened, and the cargo holders increase their offer in line with the trend. At the beginning of the week, hips held steady after rising, but the driving force for continuous rise is insufficient. There are signs of decline at the weekend. The industry has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the actual trading is tepid. Up to now, the mainstream price of hips is mostly about 12500-15000 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene is mostly 11600-12000 yuan / ton. The overall market of PS is rising steadily.

In the international crude oil market, on October 15, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.28/barrel, an increase of US $0.97 or 1.19%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.86/barrel, an increase of US $0.86 or 1.02%. Boosted by the expectation of market supply shortage, the relaxation of epidemic related restrictions stimulated demand growth, and the oil price continued to rise moderately.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of styrene first rose and then fell this week. At present, it fluctuates in a narrow range. On October 8, the quotation of styrene in Shandong was around 9400-9450 yuan / ton, and on October 14, it was around 9800-10200 yuan / ton, up 400-650 yuan / ton. During the week, the price of styrene continued to rise, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil, the general rise of bulk commodities and the rise of pure benzene, which slightly repaired the profit of styrene production.

3、 Future forecast

The business society believes that the current price of raw material styrene fluctuates, the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the trading atmosphere is tepid. Hips is expected to adjust narrowly with the price trend of raw materials in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 9583.33 yuan / ton on October 10 and 9983.33 yuan / ton on October 15, with an increase of 4.17% during the week and 21.01% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 13450.00 yuan / ton on October 10 and 13662.50 yuan / ton on October 15, with an increase of 1.58% during the week and 20.51% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9866.67 yuan / ton on October 10 and 9866.67 yuan / ton on October 15. The price was flat during the period, up 12.76% compared with September 1.

This week, the overall focus of the domestic polyethylene spot market shifted upward. During the week, LDPE and HDPE in East China continued to rise in the early part of the week and fell at the weekend. LLDPE showed a shock upward trend. The prices of the three PE spot varieties mainly increased, with a fluctuation range of 150-1500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises rose first and then fell this week. It was mainly raised in the early part of the week. The price fell at the weekend, and the cost support was general. Liansu futures fell more than rose in the week, bringing some bad news to the spot market. The terminal currently needs to enter the market, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is not good. Business offers follow the market, follow the increase at the beginning of the week, the quotation is loose at the weekend, and the firm price focuses on a single discussion.

Liansu futures fell as a whole this week, bringing some bad news to the spot market. On October 15, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 9555, the highest price was 9685, the lowest price was 9370, the closing price was 9600, the former settlement price was 9520, the settlement price was 9485, up 80, or 0.84%, the trading volume was 588538, the position was 310945, and the daily position was increased by – 505. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the atmosphere of adult trading in the market is poor, and the overall trend of the three PE spot varieties is in the doldrums. On the 15th, the ex factory prices of most petrochemical enterprises remained stable, and some regions still fell. The downstream mentality is cautious and multidimensional holds to replenish on demand. Merchants’ quotations follow the market, and the firm offer focuses on a single discussion. In the future, the polyethylene market lacks obvious benefits, and it is expected that the PE spot market may still decline in the short term.

Zinc prices soared after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc price continued to rise after the festival, and the zinc price soared on the 14th. As of October 14, the zinc price was 25086.00 yuan / ton, up 5.25% from 23835 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with the zinc price of 22686 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 10.58%. The power shortage increased the market’s concern about the commencement of zinc smelters, stimulated the rise of zinc price, and the domestic spot zinc price went straight to the highest price in 17 years.

LME zinc price hit a record high

According to the trend chart of LME zinc price, LME zinc price opened at US $3421.00/t on October 14 and closed at US $3503.60/t, an increase of 2.41%; The highest price is US $3637.50/ton, up 6.33% from the opening price and about 30% from the beginning of this year. Today’s zinc price is a new high since 2007.

Strong trading limit of Shanghai zinc

According to the trend chart of zinc price in Shanghai futures market, on October 14, the main contract of Shanghai zinc touched the daily limit, up 7.98%, and now it is reported as 25700 yuan / ton, a new high since March 2018.

Power rationing in zinc City

In late September, Guangdong, Shandong, Qinghai, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Anhui, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and other places successively issued power rationing or staggered peak power consumption notices. Most provinces in China have encountered power rationing. Zinc smelting, as one of the main power consuming industries, has a great impact on the zinc smelting industry and the output of zinc smelting has decreased. In October, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hunan provinces with severe power rationing in September did not ease. After the dry season in Yunnan, the output of some smelters was expected to be lowered, and the power rationing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. Some enterprises were notified to start four-day off and three-day off, and the output of zinc City decreased.

Electricity bills soar in Europe

According to the data of European Intercontinental Exchange, compared with the price of about 6 euros in the middle of last year, the price of natural gas has soared more than 10 times recently, reaching an all-time high. As energy prices soared, electricity prices in Europe also soared. At present, the electricity price per megawatt hour in the UK has risen to 285 pounds, an increase of 700% over the same period, the highest since 1999. Electricity prices in Spain have tripled since December and in Germany have risen by 50%. The European power crisis has further affected relevant industries. As a high power consumption industry, zinc smelting is bound to reduce its production capacity due to the soaring electricity price.

Reduction of zinc production by 50% in three European smelters

According to foreign news on October 13, nyrstar said that with the significant increase in power costs and carbon emission related costs, it is no longer economically feasible to operate the plant at full capacity. It will cut zinc production at its three European smelters by 50% from Wednesday to cope with soaring electricity costs. Nyrstar belongs to Trafigura group and is one of the largest zinc metal producers in the world. It is understood that the total output of its three smelters is 700000 tons, accounting for more than 5% of the world. A 50% reduction in production is equivalent to affecting the global zinc production by 2.5%. The news of sharply reducing the output of zinc smelters was too stimulating, and the supply expectation of zinc market fell sharply, stimulating the sharp rise of zinc price.

India’s power crisis intensifies and zinc supply is expected to shrink

Due to the shortage of coal supply, India has become the latest country facing a serious power crisis. According to the data of India’s power sector, as of the beginning of October, the average coal inventory of 135 thermal power plants in India was only 4 days, lower than the 13 days in early August. In the factories monitored every day, more than half of the inventory is less than three days. The zinc smelting capacity in India accounts for 5% of the global zinc smelting capacity. The power crisis in India is bound to affect the large power consumer of zinc smelting, and the expectation of zinc supply reduction in the zinc market is intensified.

The fourth national dumping

According to Announcement No. 2 of 2021 of the State Food and material reserve bureau, it is decided to put the fourth batch of national reserve zinc in 2021 on October 9, with a total sales volume of 50000 tons. The fourth batch of reserve zinc was put into the market, which alleviated the short-term supply of zinc market and increased the short-term supply of zinc market.

Market Overview

Analysts of business society believe that: affected by the soaring global energy prices, power shortages have occurred all over the world and power rationing has continued all over the world. As a large power consumer, the risk of production restriction and shutdown of zinc smelting has intensified. The soaring electricity price in Europe has led to a surge in the cost of zinc smelting enterprises, and the production of European zinc smelting enterprises has been reduced by 50%, which has further exacerbated the market’s concern about the reduction of output of zinc smelting enterprises, and the driving force for the rise of zinc market has increased, The short-term zinc market is still strong. In the medium and long term, global inflation makes the downstream start-up expectation drop, the demand expectation of zinc market drops, the medium and long-term rise support of zinc market is insufficient, and the state has repeatedly thrown reserves to stabilize the zinc market, and the space for zinc price surge is limited. It is expected that the short-term zinc price will rise strongly, and the medium and long-term zinc price will rise slightly.