In December, the domestic Shunding market was weak and fell. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber at the beginning of the month was 16120 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 14290 yuan / ton, down 11.35% from the beginning of the month.

On the one hand, the supply of polybutadiene rubber is relatively loose; On the other hand, the downstream start-up is reduced, and the demand for Shunding is weak; In addition, the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, dragging the cost side. Since December, Shunding enterprises have successively reduced the ex factory price of Shunding rubber. As of December 31, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported to be 14000 yuan / ton; Market traders followed suit.

According to the business agency, the parking enterprises in the early stage of the month gradually restarted. Although some devices stopped briefly, the overall construction started by the end of the month was higher than that in the early stage, and the supply side became loose.

Butadiene, the raw material, fell sharply in December, dragging down butadiene rubber on the cost side. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 31, the price of butadiene was 4451 yuan / ton, down 27.26% from 6120 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In December, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. The price at the beginning of the month was 13770 yuan / ton, the low point in the month was 132250 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 13748 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side has become loose and the cost side has fallen sharply. It is expected that the price of polybutadiene rubber will be weak in the later stage.

DOTP prices fell sharply in December

According to the data monitoring of business society, the DOTP price fell sharply in December, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of December 31, the price of DOTP was 9775 yuan / ton, down 13.78% from 11337.50 yuan / ton on December 1; Insufficient demand, DOTP prices continued to fall.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic isooctanol fell sharply in December, down 12.39%. The market is cautious in purchasing high-end prices. There are few new orders in the market, mainly contract orders, deadlock in high price spot negotiations, more bearish on the floor, and downstream customers just need small orders. The transaction of isooctanol was cold, the price of isooctanol fell, the cost of plasticizer DOTP fell, and DOTP fell under great pressure.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA prices rose in December, and the rise of international crude oil prices stimulated PTA prices to follow. On the demand side, PTA is still in the off-season of the market, and the demand follow-up is insufficient. The space for PTA price rise is limited, and PTA aftermarket price consolidation is the main trend. PTA prices of raw materials rose, and the cost of DOTP rose in December, which was good for the DOTP market. It is expected to consolidate in the future, but the good for DOTP is limited.

PVC market fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price fluctuated and fell in December, and the PVC price stabilized and the decline slowed down in late October. The PVC market has entered a weak finishing pattern. PVC is weak, the spot market is general, the demand for plasticizer is insufficient, and the DOTP market is bad. With the Spring Festival approaching in January, PVC related manufacturers may have holidays in advance, the demand for DOTP has declined, and the bad market of DOTP has increased.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, PTA price of DOTP raw material rose in December, the decline of isooctanol price slowed down and stabilized, and DOTP cost has a certain positive support; On the demand side, the price of PVC fell, the demand for plasticizer remained cold, and the Spring Festival in January was approaching, the downstream customers were about to stop production on holiday, and the future demand was expected to decline. Overall, the cost of plasticizer DOTP has stabilized, the demand is expected to decline, the downward pressure of DOTP market has increased, and it is expected that the future DOTP market will be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refiners in December was 2320.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2801.25 yuan / ton at the end of the month. It decreased by 480.50 yuan / ton during the month, with a monthly increase of 20.70%.

On December 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 217.88, up 0.98 points from yesterday, down 16.90% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 225.73% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in December, refined petroleum coke continued to rise sharply. Recently, the local refineries have good shipments and positive transactions. The inventory of some refineries is low, and the price continues to rise.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply in December, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices remained stable as a whole in December, with signs of pushing up at the end of the month; The silicon metal market fell sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose. As of December 31, the price was 20370.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business society predicts that the international crude oil is rising, the petroleum coke price is supported by the cost, and the recent local refining manufacturers have good shipments and rising prices. At present, the downstream pre Festival procurement and the inventory in the local refining market are low. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may continue to rise in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly today (December 30). The average market price in East China was 4937 yuan / ton, up 0.47% from the previous day and 36.23% year-on-year. The main force of PTA futures 2205 closed at 4958 and settled at 4956, up 48 or 0.98%.

On December 29, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $76.56/barrel, up US $0.58 or 0.76%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $79.21/barrel, up US $0.54 or 0.69%. Oil prices reached the highest closing record in the last five weeks, and the inventory data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) were positive, showing that the inventory of US crude oil and refined oil fell last week, overshadowing the concern that the rapid spread of Omicron may reduce demand.

Statistics of recent changes in PTA plants in China

In terms of PTA supply, with the restart of some PTA units, the current start-up of PTA industry has increased to 80%. Recently, Yadong and Ineos will restart, and there are few maintenance plans for PTA unit in January. PTA spot supply side will increase, and there is an expectation of accumulated inventory.

Boosted by the price of raw materials, the quotation of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. However, the terminal demand is still weak. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the number of terminal orders decreases, some factories have holidays, the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region drops to around 60%, the follow-up of raw material procurement is insufficient, and the actual trading volume slows down.

Business analysts believe that short-term crude oil is strong and volatile, and PTA cost support still exists. However, the PTA plant is restarted to increase the load, and the supply may increase again. In addition, there is a possibility of early holiday in the downstream, it is difficult to improve the polyester operating rate, the supply and demand of PTA is weak, and it is expected that the probability of continuous upward rise of PTA price is small.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of December 29, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 13200.00 yuan / ton, down 22.35% compared with that on December 1, and 28.13% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

After the sharp decline of acrylic acid Market in December, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and the market was weak and stable. With the price of raw propylene rising first and then falling, the supply of acrylic acid is sufficient, coupled with the weak follow-up of downstream demand, the market inquiry and transaction are depressed, and the price has fallen sharply. In the second half of the month, the market negotiation gradually bottomed out, the overseas mainstream units were force majeure, the export inquiry turned better, the prices of some enterprises increased, the raw propylene market was consolidated and operated, the cost support was limited, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the market inquiry and transaction performance were general.

For upstream propylene, on December 29, the reference price of propylene was 7544.60, a decrease of 0.01% compared with December 1 (7545.50). On the 29th, the trend of propylene (Shandong) was stable and small, and individual enterprises adjusted slightly. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7550-7600 yuan / ton. The crude oil fluctuated upward, and the propylene price increased compared with that of last week under the boost of cost. However, the recent horizontal consolidation of mainstream downstream polypropylene made it difficult to significantly improve the propylene procurement.

Acrylic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, with little impact on the cost, and the downstream goods are mainly prepared on demand. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be consolidated and operated stably in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

In December, EVA market demand was insufficient, continued to decline, and the decline deepened. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 20500.00 yuan / ton on December 1 and 18000.00 yuan / ton on December 28, with a decline of 12.20% during the month and 20.59% compared with November 1.

As of December 28, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 19500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 16700 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 17800 yuan / ton

In December, the domestic EVA market fell one after another, the focus continued to move down, and the price mostly fell below 20000 yuan. During the month, the ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises decreased significantly, the cost support weakened, and the downward price of bidding goods also brought some bad news to the market. There is little change in market supply. In terms of demand, except for photovoltaic materials, the whole is still weak. The downstream mentality is cautious, multi-dimensional holds to make up on demand, and the enthusiasm is general. Although the international crude oil fluctuated and rose during the month, the mentality of businesses was weak, mainly making profits and shipping during the month, and it was difficult to find the action force in the EVA market.

At present, there is little change in market supply. In terms of demand, in addition to photovoltaic materials, the downstream performance is poor, the terminal demand is weak, the market as a whole lacks upward mobility, and the mentality of operators is poor. Businesses mainly sell goods for profit, and the EVA market is waiting for good. It is expected that there may still be a downward trend in January.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic spandex market has maintained a downward trend this week (December 20-24). The market has fallen for seven consecutive weeks. The average price of mainstream factories is 67800 yuan / ton, a weekly decrease of 5.04% and a year-on-year increase of 62.98%. Spandex manufacturers started to maintain a high level around 870%, with sufficient supply. However, due to the weak demand, the shipping resistance increased, and the price was flexibly adjusted according to the buying intention. However, it still failed to significantly arouse the sentiment of downstream buyers to take goods. The overall spandex market continued to operate in a weak manner, and the trading atmosphere was flat.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D, 30D, 40D

Zhejiang 82000-90000 72000-80000 62000-68000

Shandong 84000-90000 74000-80000 64000-68000

Fujian 84000-90000 74000-80000 64000-68000

Jiangsu 82000-90000 72000-80000 62000-68000

The market price of upstream raw material PTMEG is strong, the high level of upstream BDO continues, and the cost support still exists. In terms of price: mainstream factories with 1800 molecular weight supply offer around 47000-49000 yuan / ton, and 47000-48000 yuan / ton can be referred to for actual order negotiation. Pure MDI market negotiation is near 20500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel self delivery. In January 2022, the listing price of pure MDI barrels of Wanhua manufacturer was 22500 yuan / ton, down 1300 yuan / ton month on month; In December, the settlement was 21500 yuan / ton, down 1800 yuan / ton month on month.

The downstream terminal market demand is weak, and the psychology of “buying up but not buying down” just needs to be followed up. Generally, they lack confidence in the future market, and most customers hold a “bearish” mentality. At present, about 40-50% of the work has been started in the field of circular knitting and about 50-60% in the field of warp knitting. Most factories in Shengze, Jiangsu province plan to have a holiday near mid January. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control and production adjustment in some areas, individual factories in Shaoxing, Zhejiang have been on holiday.

Business analysts believe that the supporting role of the cost side is maintained, but the downstream just needs to take goods, and the transaction follow-up is slow. It is expected that the short-term demand is difficult to be optimistic, and the price of spandex continues to decline.

Spot price: this week (12.20-12.24), the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a narrow fluctuation trend. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7043 yuan / ton on December 24, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a monthly decrease of 2.42% and an increase of 19.02% over the same period last year.

Futures market: on December 24, the contract price of staple fiber main futures pf2205 closed at 6986, up 146 from the closing price last week, up 2.13%. Since this month, it has shown a small upward trend. The settlement price is 6956 yuan; The position was 102667, the position increased by 9641 and the basis was 57. Domestic staple fiber upstream raw material futures prices rose and fell this week, with PTA rising 3.53% and ethylene glycol falling 1.94%.

Influencing factors: 1 This week, the international crude oil price first suppressed and then increased. U.S. strategic oil reserves fell to the lowest level in 19 years, Pfizer’s new Guankou medicine was urgently launched, the impact of Omicron variant on demand was weakened, international oil prices rose to the highest point in a month, WTI New York crude oil CFD rose sharply this week and closed near us $73.7/barrel at the weekend; 2. Influenced by the rebound of international oil price, the focus of PTA cost this week moved upward, and the futures and spot prices rebounded with the oil price. However, there is no sign of significant improvement in downstream demand, and the restart of some PTA units will increase the load; 3. This week, some ethylene glycol units were restarted, the operating load increased, the total inventory in East China increased, the futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and the aftermarket may still be dominated by weak consolidation; 4. This week, the upstream staple fiber cost support, pure polyester yarn increased slightly compared with last week, the market trading atmosphere continued to be weak, the replenishment volume of downstream weaving enterprises was less than last year, the inventory continued to rise, and pure polyester yarn may continue to operate weakly; 5. Affected by the price rebound of main raw materials, the futures price of polyester staple fiber rebounded slightly this week, but the downstream demand is still weak, the domestic power restriction policy has basically ended, the supply has improved, and the spot trend of staple fiber is stable. Recently, xinfengming Zhonglei chemical fiber direct spinning staple fiber 1.56dtex * 38mm finished product quality data is perfect and users are satisfied.

Future forecast: in the short term, the international crude oil price will rise slowly and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will be strengthened. In some provinces of China, COVID-19 local cases continue to affect the polyester industry chain upstream and downstream start up and production and marketing. It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will fluctuate in a narrow range. The high price of staple fiber has fallen for more than two months and has fallen greatly. Since this month, the shock has rebounded slowly, and there seems to be signs of stabilization. Pay close attention to cost side price fluctuations and epidemic changes.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 23 is 4850 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 20, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 692800 tons, an increase of 71800 tons, an increase of 11.56%, and 59200 tons, an increase of 9.34%, compared with last Thursday.

On December 22, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4780 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton from the previous trading day and down 146 yuan / ton from last week.

Stimulated by the larger than expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, the rise of raw materials squeezed the profit space of ethylene glycol, while the demand side continued to operate weakly. In addition, some ethylene glycol units were restarted, the operating load increased, and the drag on the fundamentals of supply and demand still existed.

Forecast: weak shock.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of December 22, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4300.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.57% compared with the price on December 17, a decrease of 14.00% compared with the price on November 22, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.81% in a three-month cycle.

The market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid rose this week. Recently, the price of raw material caustic soda has risen, the prices of liquid ammonia and sulfuric acid have been temporarily stable, the methanol market is lower, the cost support is small, the market supply is tight, the actual demand in the downstream is general, the procurement is based on demand, the market trading is orderly, and the price has risen steadily.

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 940.00 on December 21, an increase of 11.57% compared with December 1 (842.50); Upstream liquid ammonia, on the 22nd, the overall market of domestic liquid ammonia stabilized. The prices in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei, southwest and two lakes did not change much, with a rise and fall range of 50 yuan; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable on December 22; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2545 yuan / ton on December 22. In terms of spot goods, domestic shipments were poor in many places, and futures fell weakly. The focus of bidding in northern Shandong shifted significantly, and the market atmosphere was empty. Crude oil rebounded partially, power coal support was still weak, and there was downward space in many regions of methanol in the short term.

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is relatively limited, the supply side is tight to support the market, and the market atmosphere is OK. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate stably and strongly in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.