According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 7th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6033.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black declined narrowly, and the overall price remained stable this week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was decent, with downstream procurement being the main demand and average demand. The enthusiasm for stocking up was not strong, and manufacturers were mainly willing to offer discounts and take orders. The number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On November 6th, the chemical index stood at 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market is stable and weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from October 30 to November 6, 2023 was lowered, with 6703.75 yuan/ton last weekend and 6598.75 yuan/ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.57%.

In terms of crude oil: As of November 3rd, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.51 per barrel, a decrease of $1.95 or 2.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has eased.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene and the listed price of Sinopec pure benzene will continue to be 8050 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7673 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On October 30th, the price of pure benzene was 7900 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 3rd), the price of pure benzene was 7920 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to last week and 11.67% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

From the perspective of the industry chain, the trend of the pure benzene industry chain during the week was somewhat volatile, with a limited overall fluctuation range. The pure benzene in the external market went down during the week, but the decline was limited, and the price did not change much during the week. The pure benzene market fluctuates within a narrow range, and the changes in the hydrogenation benzene market are relatively limited. Currently, the market price in East China is between 7900 to 8000 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. Sinopec’s prices have temporarily stabilized during the week, and the market mentality is relatively stable.

The overall change in the pure benzene industry chain this week is limited, and the hydrogenation benzene market follows a narrow range of fluctuations. The overall fluctuation of the industry chain is relatively small, and the auction prices of crude benzene were mostly slightly lowered during the week, while downstream procurement remained on demand. This week, the Shanxi region implemented a price of 6500-6550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70-80 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have had good sales recently, with a slight increase in business operations. The overall supply of crude benzene has not changed much. In terms of demand, the recent operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has not changed much, and there is still a demand for crude benzene. However, some units have plans to restart in the future, and the supply will slightly increase in the future. Overall, the expected increase in supply and demand for crude benzene in the future market is currently limited by the high volatility of crude oil trends. The market mainly focuses on changes in supply and demand, and it is expected that the trend of the industrial chain will be relatively stable in the short term, with a narrow volatility trend remaining the main focus.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 3rd, the spot nickel quotation was 147900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3%, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, in the early hours of this Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to maintain interest rates unchanged during the interest rate meeting, but Powell’s speech was hawkish. After the meeting, US stocks rebounded significantly, and oil prices also fell after the Federal Reserve meeting, reaching a three-week low. This is mainly due to market concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth and concerns about an oversupply of crude oil. In addition, trade tensions have also put some pressure on oil prices. The US dollar and US bond yields have declined, and data released on Wednesday showed an increase in job vacancies in the US in September, indicating a continued tightening of the labor market, which has played a supportive role in the economy. On the domestic side, the latest PMI data for the manufacturing industry in October, which is lower than the boom and bust line, indicates that the recovery trend of the manufacturing industry is still difficult to be optimistic, and market demand is insufficient. On November 2, the central bank and foreign exchange heavyweights spoke out, insisting on deepening financial reform, maintaining and increasing market liquidity, boosting market confidence, and internal metal prices fluctuated.

In terms of supply: Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, continuously releasing domestic electrolytic nickel production capacity, gradually expanding production reduction efforts in steel mills, and reducing inventory pressure.

In terms of demand: The overall downstream demand is relatively weak, and nickel sulfate is currently in a weak market.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged, easing market tension, and the weakening US dollar has boosted the non-ferrous metal market. However, nickel supply is loose, downstream steel mills are reducing production, and demand is weak. It is expected that nickel prices will remain weak in the short term.

Price trend

In October, the domestic ABS market stabilized after a decline, and spot prices of various brands fluctuated after being adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.5% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The high load in the ABS industry in the early stage continued, resulting in abundant supply of goods on the site, a significant increase in inventory positions, and poor profitability of the enterprise, resulting in losses. After a month of gradual negative reduction, the domestic operating rate has decreased by nearly 20% to 72%, and the dragging effect of the supply side on the spot market has decreased. The supply pressure has slightly eased.

In terms of raw materials: In October, the overall decline of ABS upstream three materials was significant, with a slight decline in the acrylonitrile market during the early high operating period and a slight decline in the later period. The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, and the cost support for acrylonitrile weakened; The main downstream construction has significantly declined, and demand has weakened in the face of acrylonitrile support; In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile prices remained strong due to low inventory levels and cost support, but in the latter half of the month, prices slightly declined as demand weakened.

In October, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose. After the holiday, crude oil prices fell sharply and the market was once weak. In the middle of the day, the price of the external market rose, and the export window boosted the market atmosphere. At the same time, some devices were parked out of plan, resulting in a reduction in market supply. Adding to the maintenance plans of some enterprises at the end of the month, the factory prices of production enterprises have continuously increased, and the butadiene market has continued to rise.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fell in October. The main reason for the decline is the international crude oil price drop, the pure benzene market fluctuating and falling, and the cost support is average. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, production and sales profits are reduced, spot transactions are poor, and there is an expectation of styrene inventory accumulation. It is expected that the market may continue to decline.

In terms of demand: In October, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, saw a decrease in stocking enthusiasm, and the inventory digestion during the early peak season further dragged down trading. After the fall in ABS prices in late October, a portion of the stock was released for immediate needs, with the demand side mainly focused on maintaining production and providing poor support to the market.

Future Market Forecast

In October, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS rose and fell, with weak overall support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant has dropped, and some supply pressures have eased. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market may maintain a weak and stable consolidation trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of refrigerant R22 on October 31 was 217666.67.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% compared to the average price of 21500.00 yuan/ton on October 1 and a year-on-year increase of 16.61%

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of refrigerant R134a on October 31 was 27833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.05% compared to the price of 26000.00 yuan/ton on October 1 and 7.74% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In early October, the price of refrigerant R22 raw materials rose again, while the price of chloroform slightly increased. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, and with the support of rising raw material costs, manufacturers successively raised the factory price of R22, driving the market price of refrigerant R22 to rise slightly. In mid to late October, the domestic price of trichloromethane rose slightly and fell slightly, with an overall decrease of 2.12% during the month. The overall increase in hydrofluoric acid prices stabilized and then remained stable, with an overall increase of 8.03% during the month. Downstream raw material costs fluctuated and stabilized, and R22 market prices subsequently remained stable and advanced.

In October, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices continued to rise, but after stabilizing in the latter half of the month, they slightly declined. Overall, the price of trichloroethylene rose by 8.03% during the month, and with the support of higher raw material costs, manufacturers raised the factory price of R134a at the beginning of the month, driving a comprehensive rebound in the domestic R134a market price. With the fluctuation and stabilization of raw material costs, coupled with the rapid increase in refrigerant prices, which to some extent suppressed terminal consumption, some manufacturers have slightly lowered their factory prices to ensure shipment, driving the domestic refrigerant R134a price to rise slightly in late October and then move forward steadily.

In terms of raw materials, the overall increase in domestic hydrofluoric acid prices in October stabilized and then moved forward slightly. The sustained high operation of hydrofluoric acid prices will provide strong support for the bottom of the refrigerant market prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the increase in raw material costs is stabilizing, and the market supply and demand are stable. It is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain at the current level and undergo slight consolidation in November.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China continued to decline this week. On October 29th, the average market price in East China was 17900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the price of 18400 yuan/ton on October 23rd, a decrease of 2.72%, and a decrease of 0.74% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, domestic TDI prices continued to decline, supply side supply increased, business sentiment weakened, and shipping intentions increased. However, terminal performance was mediocre, downstream demand was weak, and cargo holders’ shipments were hindered. The weekly quotation continued to decline, market trading was sluggish, and the TDI market was weak and downward.

The price of upstream toluene fell, and the market was weak during the week. On October 29th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.38% compared to the price of 7130 yuan/ton on October 23rd. Since October, the overall international crude oil price has decreased, and the cost support for toluene has weakened. Downstream has entered a off-season, with weak market inquiries and insufficient demand support. In addition, toluene production has been stable, and supply has increased. Under the influence of multiple bearish factors, the negotiated price for toluene in the market has decreased.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic TDI supply is stabilizing, downstream demand is weak, factory news is quiet, trade market confidence is insufficient, and the sentiment of buying up or not buying down is gradually affecting the demand side. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term TDI market will weaken and consolidate, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5550.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.60%. The current price has decreased by 13.18% compared to last year.

potassium nitrate

In October, the domestic potassium nitrate market fell. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and declining for two consecutive months, and the market has continued to decline this month. The raw material market is weak and volatile, with poor cost support, abundant supply of potassium nitrate, and prices following the trend of cost decline. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate have recently quoted 5100-5500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in October was fluctuating and declining. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, the circulating supply of potassium chloride in the domestic market is limited, and there is an expectation of a rise in potassium chloride, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of bromine was 24200 yuan/ton. On October 26th, the price of bromine was 24300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%, a year-on-year decrease of 51.2%. On October 25th, the bromine commodity index was 85.26, an increase of 0.35 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 65.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and a 44.70% increase from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have risen this week, with mainstream quotes in the Shandong market of around 24000-25500 yuan/ton, indicating a slight upward trend in market prices. The supply side has been relatively stable recently. Bromine companies are reluctant to sell and are cautious in shipping. The downstream flame retardants and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand in the near future, and the price of tetrabromobisphenol A has increased, providing support for the price of bromine.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 926.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On October 26th, the average market price was 930 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.11%. The price of raw material sulfur has slightly increased this week.

It is predicted that there will be a slight increase in the price of bromine in the near future, with upstream sulfur prices operating well, stable supply of bromine production in the near future, and slightly better demand in the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine. However, the overall wait-and-see sentiment is still dominant. It is expected that the short-term consolidation of bromine prices will depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7969.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% compared to October 16 at 8109.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7850-8000 yuan/ton.

As of October 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 7899.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% compared to October 16 at 8039.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7750-7950 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has declined, and the gasoline and diesel markets have entered the off-season. The restructuring lacks substantial benefits, and a small amount of demand for ethylene cracking has been released. The overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak, with sluggish trading and refineries reducing prices for shipments.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes may be suspended in November, easing demand concerns. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the conflict between Palestine and Israel. The Islamic world’s resistance to Israel has escalated, and Iran’s foreign minister has called for an oil embargo on Israel, which has led to geopolitical turmoil and increased the risk premium for crude oil. In addition, the United States’ agreement to lift sanctions exemptions for Venezuela for six months has not quelled supply side tensions.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7130 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 8.24% compared to 7770 yuan/ton on October 16; The price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7510 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 5.42% compared to 7940 yuan/ton on October 16. The price trend of PX is temporarily stable, and as of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of xylene is 9100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, and the gasoline and diesel markets have entered the off-season. There is no significant positive trend in the local refining naphtha terminal, and market trading is cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will slightly decline in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8217 yuan/ton on October 16, and the average price on October 20 was 8180 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.45%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9425 yuan/ton on October 16, and the average price on October 20 was 9307 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 1.25%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8800 yuan/ton on October 16th, and the average price on October 20th was 8725 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.85%.

Polyethylene prices continued to decline this week. The international crude oil fluctuates strongly, providing some bottom support for the polyethylene market. The shutdown and maintenance of enterprises have decreased, and the supply of polyethylene is expected to increase. The demand for agricultural film is in peak season, and the market procurement is mainly based on hard demand, and the transaction is still acceptable. The demand for packaging film during the E-commerce Festival is expected to be positive. In order to facilitate transactions, merchants often sell at reduced prices, with polyethylene prices mainly falling.

On October 20th, polyethylene l2401 rose 0.32% to close at 7954..

On the cost side, there is some support for polyethylene, and agricultural film is in the peak demand season, but overall demand is weak compared to the same period last year. In order to facilitate transactions, merchants are often actively offering profits and shipping. It is expected that polyethylene will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.