On November 28, 2023, the cash and tax inclusive prices of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non acid washed, simple packaging) from various major production areas in China remained stable, with an overall range of 20600-20900 yuan/ton. Negotiations on actual orders were the main focus.

The specific price ranges for each region are as follows:

The ex factory foreign exchange including tax in Fugu area is 20600-20700 yuan/ton; Current exchange rate in Taiyuan area is 20700-20800 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Wenxi area is 20800-20900 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Ningxia is 20600-20700 yuan/ton.

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots in accordance with the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washing, no wooden pallets, and non payment acceptance price, actual order negotiation is the main focus.

Overview of the trend of magnesium metal in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price in the domestic market on the 28th was 20900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the average market price of 21166.67 yuan/ton in early November (11.1); Compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), the average market price was 21700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69%.

At the beginning of the month, magnesium market transactions improved and prices slightly increased. However, there has not been a significant improvement in the overall demand side performance, and the sustained upward momentum of magnesium prices is insufficient. After the increase, magnesium prices show relatively stable fluctuations.

The news of some magnesium factories resuming production in the main production areas in the middle of the month is fermenting, and the operators have insufficient information about the future market; Downstream demand is weak, and upstream raw material costs are supporting a decline. Under multiple negative factors, magnesium prices are under pressure and have fallen to below 21000 yuan/ton, with prices dropping to 20400 yuan/ton at their lowest point.

At the end of the month, there was an increase in low price inquiries in the market, and downstream users were significantly lowering prices. However, magnesium factories on the supply side showed a willingness to stop the decline and stabilize prices. Most manufacturers followed the market and adjusted their quotations according to their own situation.

In terms of supply and demand

This month, the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate game state, probing each other, and the market is flooded with news of some magnesium factories resuming production in the Fugu area. There is a possibility of further increase in production, and the confidence of manufacturers has been undermined. Downstream users have significantly lowered prices, and downstream demand for magnesium ingots has not followed up enough. Magnesium prices lack support for further price increases, and in the market pattern of oversupply, magnesium prices are mostly operating under pressure.

The recent significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has had a certain impact on the export of magnesium ingots. And this round of RMB/USD exchange rate recovery may not be over yet, which may affect the demand for stocking up before Christmas abroad.

Ferrosilicon experienced a cumulative decline of 1.83% in November

On November 28th, the quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6700-6900 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6728.57 yuan/ton. The silicon iron market operated weakly in November, with prices continuously decreasing at the end of the month, steel bidding prices dropping, and downstream demand performing average. In the short term, the silicon iron market fluctuated weakly. The price of orchid charcoal remained stable in November, and currently the price of small Shenmu orchid charcoal is around 1180-1280 yuan/ton. The support for magnesium ingot prices on the raw material side has weakened.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, magnesium ingot prices were weak in November, and factories were more willing to raise prices at the end of the month due to cost support. But currently, the overall market lacks favorable factors, with weak demand and strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment. The appreciation of the RMB is not conducive to exports. The news of Fugu factory resuming production has led to an unstable industry mentality and bearish outlook on the future market. It is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot market will weaken, but the downward space will also be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.76% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from the beginning of the month’s price of 27833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 9.21% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall domestic price of trichloromethane remained stable and advanced, while the price of hydrofluoric acid slightly declined, falling by 0.6%. The cost of raw materials fluctuated and the market supply and demand remained stable. The overall domestic R22 market price remained stable and advanced this week.

This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid slightly declined, with a decrease of 0.6% within the week. Overall, the upstream raw material cost of R134a is still relatively high, and downstream purchases and sales are relatively cautious. The overall domestic price of R134a remained stable and moving forward this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined. Overall, the price of R134a is still at a relatively high level, and the sustained high cost of raw materials will provide some support for the future refrigerant market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, the cost of raw materials has fluctuated slightly, and the market supply and demand are relatively stable. In the short term, the prices of domestic R22 and R134a will continue to remain at the current level with slight consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8217 yuan/ton on November 20th, and 8125 yuan/ton on November 24th, with a 1.11% decrease in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9262 yuan/ton on November 20th, and 9250 yuan/ton on November 24th, with a 0.13% decrease in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8625 yuan/ton on November 20th, and 8550 yuan/ton on November 24th. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.87%.

Polyethylene prices have experienced a narrow decline this week. Cost side: On November 23rd, international crude oil futures prices fell, and the OPEC+meeting of oil producing countries was postponed. Market expectations for a reduction in production were almost released, putting pressure on oil prices and insufficient support for polyethylene on the cost side. Supply side: The supply of polyethylene is still sufficient. Downstream agricultural film and pipe demand has weakened, market demand has weakened, with rigid demand as the main focus and limited new orders; Traders have a strong willingness to offer discounts for shipping.

On November 24th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7881 yuan, and the closing price was 7934 yuan, up 56 yuan. The highest price was 7943 yuan, and the lowest was 7858 yuan, up 0.71%. This week, the futures market has declined, dragging down the spot market.

Oil prices are under pressure, suppressing the polyethylene market. The enthusiasm for terminal procurement has decreased, and it is difficult to achieve significant improvement in demand; The poor fundamentals of polyethylene are expected to be dominated by weak oscillations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol dropped from 10525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10375.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.43%, and the weekend price increased by 7.33% year-on-year. On November 13th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 49.76, a decrease of 0.24 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.97% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 15.59% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol slightly decreased.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7750.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.56%, and the weekend price increased by 22.37% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In late November, the market trend of new pentanediol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 13th to 20th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6825 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.37%, a month on month decrease of 2.68%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.30%. The signing of new orders in the market is lackluster, and with stable supply, the demand side is unlikely to improve. Due to weather conditions, transportation is limited, and ethanol market prices are traded at the low end.

In terms of cost, as we enter mid November, the market volume of corn in the production area continues to increase, and the domestic corn market supply continues to rebound. The high yield of new season corn has become a foregone conclusion. Downstream trade entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for feed in the breeding industry continues to be sluggish. In addition, imported corn continues to arrive in Hong Kong, and the domestic corn market supply is relatively loose. The overall price of corn in the market is under pressure and fluctuates weakly. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 30.74% operating in East China and 89.10% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in the southern and western regions is 11.52%. In the short term, the domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in November. Other chemical products require procurement. The demand for Baijiu is average. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and there are significant regional differences in supply and demand. Another round of snowfall is coming, which will affect the circulation speed of goods and the increase in freight rates in the main production areas of Northeast China. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be mainly volatile.

Price trend

In mid November, the domestic PA66 market showed a narrow decline. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 21333.33 yuan/ton on November 17th, a decrease of -0.78% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Recently, PA66 has taken on the high market in the early stage and the market has generally remained stable. In mid November, the spot prices of various brands saw a narrow decline. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry remained above 65% for the entire month, which was basically flat compared to the previous period. The production line situation of the enterprise has remained stable with minor changes, and the overall inventory position is relatively low, with strong supplier support. Terminal enterprises still focus on maintaining production while stocking up on demand, while the demand side has a moderate support for spot goods. On the upstream side, the domestic adiponitrile market is weak and fluctuating. In terms of hexamethylene diamine, the current price is still acceptable due to the impact of previous price increases by international large factories. The cost side’s boost to the PA66 market mainly comes from hexamethylene diamine. At present, the market performance has rebounded and the initial price of PA66 has remained stable.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the spot price of PA66 fell narrowly. The price of raw materials has weakened slightly, providing general support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is almost horizontal, and the inventory position is low. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of November 16th, the average price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 59400 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.94% compared to the same period last week and a decrease of 1.66% compared to the beginning of this week.

Lithium iron phosphate has been mainly operating in a weak position in recent times, with prices continuing to be low. Downstream market demand is not growing as fast as production capacity, and supply market sentiment is low. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Currently, enterprise inventory is high, and overall market consumption is slow. Downstream restocking is mainly based on demand, and the lithium battery market is operating under comprehensive pressure.

Upstream lithium carbonate prices continue to be low, futures prices continue to decline, supply and demand pressure still exists, operating rates are high, inventory increases, downstream demand is insufficient, purchasing willingness is not high, supply and demand game, pressure downward trend.

Analysts from Business Society’s lithium iron phosphate believe that upstream lithium carbonate is operating under pressure, with prices continuing to be low and a significant decline. The cost side support is insufficient, and in terms of demand, downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to stock and mainly purchase according to demand. The transaction atmosphere is cold, and many hold a wait-and-see attitude. In the short term, the focus of negotiations is low, making it difficult to boost prices.

Since November, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market has shown a downward trend followed by a stable trend. Currently, there is insufficient effective support on the market for dimethyl carbonate, and the overall price of the dimethyl carbonate market is in a low consolidation operation. As of November 14, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market price is around 3900-4200 yuan/ton, and the lower price is around 3650 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: Currently, the follow-up of new orders from downstream polycarbonate factories for dimethyl carbonate is limited, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream electrolyte factories continues to be cold. The overall improvement in demand is poor, and the support for dimethyl carbonate is limited.

On the supply side: Currently, the early maintenance equipment for dimethyl carbonate is still in a shutdown state, and the overall production and capacity utilization rate in the site have decreased. However, due to insufficient demand, the overall supply side of dimethyl carbonate is still relatively abundant.

In terms of cost: The raw material epoxy propane market is weak, and the cost support for dimethyl carbonate is also limited.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

Overall, the current positive support for the dimethyl carbonate market is still weak. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market prices will mostly be weak and narrow range adjusted, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Product Name: Urea

Latest price (November 13th): 2551.67 yuan/ton

On November 13th, the comprehensive price of domestic urea slightly decreased, with a decrease of 38.33 yuan/ton compared to November 10th, a decrease of 1.48%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.01%. The prices of upstream anthracite (washing medium blocks) and liquefied natural gas have slightly decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream agricultural demand is weak, with industrial demand being the main focus. Board and melamine manufacturers are generally operating, while the operating rate of composite fertilizer plants has decreased. Urea enterprises are operating at a high level and have sufficient supply of urea. Multiple bearish factors led to a downward trend in urea prices.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 2530 yuan/ton.

Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in November

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the cobalt price was 261300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% compared to the cobalt price of 266900 yuan/ton on November 1st. The cobalt price in October was stimulated by the news of cobalt storage, which led to a significant increase in cobalt prices. However, the good news of cobalt storage in late October was not there. In addition, the growth of new energy vehicle consumption slowed down, resulting in poor demand in the cobalt market and a slight decline in cobalt prices. In November, cobalt prices fluctuated and fell.

Domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased in October

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 989000 and 956000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.2% and 33.5%, and a market share of 33.5%. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 7.352 million and 7.28 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%, and a market share of 30.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed down. The demand for cobalt in the market has increased, but the growth rate may not meet expectations.

VR consumption in the domestic market was sluggish in the third quarter

According to market research firm CINNO Research, the domestic VR consumer market was sluggish in the third quarter of 2023, with a total sales volume of 100000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9% and a month on month decrease of 35.5%. The fourth quarter will enter the peak season of e-commerce shopping such as the “Double Eleven”, but the performance of the VR market is still not optimistic. VR market consumption is sluggish, 3C electronic product consumption is poor, cobalt market demand is poor, and the pressure of cobalt price decline is increasing.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the stimulus from the national collection and storage news is no longer there, and the support from the rise in cobalt prices is difficult to sustain. The performance of the new energy vehicle market is less than expected, the VR consumer market is sluggish, the consumption of 3C electronic products market is declining, and the demand for cobalt in the market is poor. In the future, demand is poor, and the downward pressure on cobalt prices is increasing. Cobalt prices have slightly declined, but the cost support for metal cobalt still exists, and cobalt prices are difficult to fall below 250000 yuan/ton. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.