According to the bulk list data of business society, as of the morning of December 8, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 15566.67 yuan / ton, down 3.51% compared with the price on the 1st, 20.85% compared with the price on November 8, and 1.27% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market fell this week (12.1-12.8). At present, the price of raw propylene is rising slightly, the raw glycerol market is weak, the cost support is relatively general, the demand side support is weak, the downstream consumption inventory or long-term contract is mainly, the inquiry purchase intention is poor, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market transaction is weak, and the price of epichlorohydrin is lower.

For upstream propylene, on December 7, the reference price of propylene was 7553.83, an increase of 0.11% compared with December 1 (7545.50).

For downstream epoxy resin, on December 7, the low-level offer in the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China continued to fall by 500 yuan / ton. Today, it was discussed that the offer was delivered in barrels of 26000-27000 yuan / ton, and the raw material end was sorted and operated horizontally.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of business society, to sum up, the current cost support is limited and the market atmosphere is light under the pressure of weak demand. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 7 is 4900 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 6, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 621500 tons, an increase of 49800 tons, an increase of 8.71%, and 20600 tons, an increase of 3.43%, compared with last Thursday.

On December 6, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4800 yuan / ton, down 35 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and 134.5 yuan / ton compared with last week.

International oil prices rose nearly 5% on Monday as concerns about Omicron’s new crown variant virus eased and some OPEC member States expressed confidence in the market. Downstream, the overall production and marketing of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yesterday was weak, and the demand remained weak. Therefore, despite the strong cost side support, the overall decline of ethylene glycol continued. The weekly average gross profit of coal to ethylene glycol decreased by about 23%.

Forecast: the demand side is weak, and the weak market continues.

CIS polybutadiene rubber weakened slightly this week (11.29-12.3). According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 3, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 15900 yuan / ton, down 1.36% from 16120 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week (November 29-December 3), the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises was stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 3, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 15400 yuan / ton; Affected by loose supply and low cost, the market offer adjusted slightly downward. According to the business agency, at present, the mainstream prices in Shunding markets such as Daqing, Qilu, Yanshan and Sichuan are around 15500 ~ 16000 yuan / ton.

Butadiene prices continued to fall sharply this week, with serious drag on the cost side. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 3, the price of butadiene was 6120 yuan / ton, down 10.26% from 6820 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The natural rubber market continued a slight downward trend this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of natural rubber was 13660 yuan / ton as of December 3, down 2.22% from 13970 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that, on the one hand, raw butadiene continues to fall sharply, on the other hand, the supply and demand of the industrial chain weakens. Overall, it is expected that the price of polybutadiene rubber will continue to be weak in the later period.

Trend of metallic magnesium (11.29-12.3, the same below)

Market analysis this week

Magnesium prices rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the magnesium market maintained a high consolidation operation. Although there was a slight stalemate between supply and demand, the magnesium plants intended to be firm and stable in their quotation. Since Wednesday, the quotations of some magnesium plants were biased towards high prices, but the downstream acceptance was not strong. There was a small peak on Thursday. By Friday, the average ex factory tax spot exchange price of domestic magnesium ingots was 38000 yuan / ton.

As of December 3, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 38000-38100 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 38100-38200 yuan / ton.

Cost side impact

In terms of thermal coal: affected by the snowfall in some areas of Shaanxi, individual prices fell slightly, and the overall price operated weakly and stably. According to the data of business society, the average market price of thermal coal was 1085 yuan / ton, the supply of origin increased, and the production capacity was released, but the overall market was deadlocked.

In terms of ferrosilicon: the mainstream quotation of 75 ferrosilicon in the main production area of Ningxia is around 8400-8600 yuan / ton, the price of large materials of blue carbon is adjusted to 1730 yuan / ton, and the price of small and medium materials of blue carbon is adjusted to 1700 yuan / ton. The notice of Zhongwei Bureau of industry and information technology and Ecological Environment Bureau on peak shifting production in some industrial industries in winter and spring 2021-2022 involves 14 ferroalloy enterprises. However, from the current market reflection, it is slightly numb to the double control policy of Zhongwei.

Impact of environmental protection inspector’s news

Recently, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team carried out supervision work in Shaanxi in December. The commencement of magnesium plant was affected by this news, which made the transaction price of magnesium rise rapidly. However, according to the sales personnel of magnesium plant, it is unclear whether there is a production reduction plan for the follow-up production of this environmental protection supervision team.

Impact of market supply shortage

The overall inventory of the magnesium plant itself is small, and orders are basically arranged, and some orders have been arranged until next month. The joint quotation of Zhouwei magnesium plant has driven the market, which makes it more difficult to find low-cost goods in the market. The rise of prices also makes downstream customers affected by the mentality of “buying up but not buying down”, which speeds up the pace of transaction. However, the downstream is not willing to receive goods at high prices and maintains cautious procurement.

Future forecast

On the whole, in view of the current low spot inventory of factories and the strong price support sentiment of magnesium manufacturers, it is difficult to find low price spot in the market. Superimposed with the inspection news of environmental protection inspectors in Shaanxi, magnesium manufacturers have good expectations for the future market and are expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term, but the downstream is not active in high price procurement, and there is limited room for significant fluctuation.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 2, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 10366 yuan / ton. Compared with November 28 (the participating price of butanone was 10333 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.32%.

This week, after the domestic butanone market rose slightly, it mainly operated stably. At the beginning of the week, the ex factory price of butanone in some factories in Shandong increased slightly by 100 yuan / ton. On November 29, the reference price of butanone in the domestic market was around 10200-14500 yuan / ton. The slight upward price did not significantly improve the overall trading atmosphere of butanone. The overall trading atmosphere in the venue was still cold, with sporadic small orders traded, supported by tight supply. Until the weekend, most butanone operators continued to make strong quotations, the supply and demand in the venue were slightly deadlocked, the overall operation was weak, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the intention to prepare goods was not high. As of December 2, The average ex factory price of domestic butanone is 10366 yuan / ton. There is little change in the overall price this week, and there is no significant fluctuation in the market.

In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on December 1 was 112.68, the same as yesterday, down 2.15% from the highest point of 115.16 in the cycle (June 22, 2014), and up 123.31% from the lowest point of 50.46 on March 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Upstream, this week, the domestic liquefied gas market in Shandong rose and fell each other. At the beginning of the week, on November 30, Shandong civil gas market rose steadily, and the sharp rise of international crude oil in the morning gave a significant boost to the market. The price of Shandong civil gas market was relatively low, and the downstream market bought goods on bargain hunting. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market was good, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, most of them had no sales pressure, their mentality was relatively strong, and some of them increased slightly. On the 2nd, the liquefied gas market in Shandong fell as a whole, the international crude oil fell, the market mentality was bad, and some manufacturers reduced their prices. As of December 2, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong was 5310 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared with November 29.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the stalemate between supply and demand in the domestic butanone market has been revealed. The butanone data division of the business society believes that the long-term effective support for the butanone market should also come from the improvement of the demand side. Therefore, in the future, more attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the demand side of butanone, and the short-term butanone market will continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market price of ammonium chloride fell in November. The price at the beginning of the month was around 1205 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was around 1145 yuan / ton, down 4.98%.

In November, the prices of urea and raw liquid ammonia fell sharply, which had a negative impact on ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4413 yuan / ton, down 14.03% from 5133 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of November 30, the domestic urea price was 2504 yuan / ton, down 10.32% from 2792 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the downstream demand for ammonium chloride was slightly warmer than that in the early stage, but it was still weak. The construction of compound fertilizer industry was around 30 ~ 40%. The winter storage in Northeast China was started slowly, and the market procurement increased, but mostly small orders. However, the start-up of Lianhe soda enterprises was around 70%, which was higher than that in the early stage, and the supply side increased slightly.

Future forecast: ammonium chloride analysts of business society believe that at present, the impact of supply and cost on ammonium chloride is empty, and the start-up strength and quantity on the demand side are small. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market may be weak and slightly lower in the later stage.

On November 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 110.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.24% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 32.86% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Crude oil fell sharply this month, the price of petrochemical raw materials continued to decline, and the pressure on the production cost of water treatment decreased; Although the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products continued to adjust slightly, and the adjustment range of polyacrylamide market in November was small, only about 1.37%. According to the data monitoring of business society, polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fluctuated downward this month, of which the mainstream price on the 1st was about 18250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was about 18000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.37%. Recently, the macro level continues to be short, the market demand is weak, the transaction is general, and the manufacturer’s price continues to adjust slightly downward.

As shown in the figure above, the market of raw material acrylonitrile first went up and then down in November. There was a slight rebound at the end of the month, but the momentum was weak. On the whole, it showed a small upward trend this month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market on the 1st was about 15433.33 yuan / ton, and the main quotation on the 30th was about 15716.67 yuan / ton, up 1.84% on a monthly basis; It is reported that the recent startup rate of manufacturers is the lowest in the year, and the main manufacturers have concentrated accidental maintenance of devices in the fourth quarter, and the output has not increased significantly as scheduled. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. At present, Sinopec East China implements 15100 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last month. According to the analysis of business agency, although the price of raw material propylene has occasionally increased recently, the overall decline of propylene price since November is the main. In addition, the recent international crude oil decline risk is high. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may continue to fall in the later stage.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid first fell and then rose in November. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 18733.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 30th was 17000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 9.25%. The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is slightly weak, the inventory of production plants is low, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stabilized in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic LNG fell in November, and the price generally showed a trend of decline rise flat. The average price of domestic LNG on the 1st was 8276.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic LNG on the 29th was 6990 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 15.55% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. According to the analysis of the business agency, the domestic LNG market operated weakly as a whole in November, the market trading was flat, there was pressure on the shipment of liquid plants, and the price fluctuated lower. Although the cost was still supported, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and the cargo holders reduced the price for shipment to find a good profit. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to decline in the short term, maintaining a weak trend of shock.

As for the future, crude oil fell sharply, the macro level continued to weaken, the price of raw materials decreased, the market support was insufficient, and the downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in the continued weak trend of polyacrylamide; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the macro weak environment, the polyacrylamide market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency: on November 29, the average price of domestic LNG was 7100 yuan / ton, down 14.22% from the beginning of the month and up 96.49% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fell, and the price generally showed a decline rise flat trend. The decline in the month was 14.22%, and the focus shifted downward. The price decline this month was mainly caused by poor demand, flat market trading and increased inventory of liquid plant. The price fluctuated and fell. During this period, it rebounded due to cost support, but there was no obvious inflection point, and the market was still weak. In the first week, the demand was sluggish, and the market supply increased due to the start-up and sales of Huanggang, Hubei Province. The domestic liquid price fell by about 8% during the week; In the second week, due to the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory of the liquid factory was controllable and the shipping atmosphere was improved. The price of the liquid factory increased by 7.44% during the week; From the third week to the end of the month, the domestic liquid price did not continue to rise, the downstream receiving capacity was insufficient, the purchasing mood became weak, the liquid factory shipment was not smooth, the price stopped rising and stabilized, and fluctuated in a narrow range. At the end of the month, the final transaction price of feed gas auction was 4.63-4.64 yuan / m3. The cost was reduced, which continued to be bad for the domestic liquid market, and the price continued to fall.

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from September 6 to November 28, 2021 that the rise and fall of domestic liquefied natural gas show each other in the cycle. The rise was as high as 17.75% in the week of October 11, and then stopped rising and turned into falling, which is quite volatile.

At present, 7050-7250 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 7000-7200 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 6900-7500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 7110-7200 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 7000-7200 yuan / ton in Hebei, 7100-7300 yuan / ton in Henan and 7350-7500 yuan / ton in Shandong. The price of air inlet is about 6400-7900 yuan / ton.

region Specifications November 29th November 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 7050-7250 8000-8500 – 450/-1250

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 7000-7200 8270-8900 – 1270/-1700

Shanxi liquified natural gas 6900-7500 8300-8800 – 1400/-1300

Ningxia liquified natural gas 7110-7200 7900-8500 – 790/-1300

Henan liquified natural gas 7100-7300 8500-8900 – 1400/-1600

Hebei liquified natural gas 7000-7200 8100-8600 – 1100/-1400

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, the domestic methanol market fell unilaterally in November, with a significant decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3156 yuan / ton at the beginning of November and 2692 yuan / ton at the end of November. The price decreased by 14.72% and increased by 27.58% year-on-year. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term.

Liquid ammonia, on the 29th, the market situation of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained stable, and the market price basically maintained the level of last week. The quotations of most manufacturers were not adjusted. The dealers mainly offered low and flat prices, and the downstream procurement took the goods normally and just needed to purchase. At present, with the increase of manufacturers’ shipments, there are more sources of goods in the market and the inventory increased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, the mainstream market price in this region is 4100-4300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the ammonia price may continue to be weak and stable in the near future.

Urea, upstream coal prices are stable, LNG prices have increased slightly recently, and cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand was mainly on the sidelines. The promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer was slow, and large urea purchase orders began to appear in the downstream compound fertilizer plants. The inventory of melamine enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, the inventory of urea manufacturers is high, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. At the end of the month, the gas head unit will be shut down one after another, and the urea output will decline. On the whole, the urea cost support is general, the downstream demand is mainly just demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced. In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea price may rise slightly in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analysts of business agency, the overall domestic LNG market in November was weak, the trading was flat, there was pressure on the shipment of liquid plants, and the price went down. Although the cost support was ok, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and the cargo holders reduced prices and made good shipments. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to maintain a weak trend of shock in the short term

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell slightly this week (11.19-11.26). As of November 26, the acrylonitrile price was 15633 yuan / ton, down 1.78% from 15916 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The price of raw propylene rose slightly, supported by the cost side. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 26, the domestic propylene price was 7742 yuan / ton, up 1.86% from 7600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Downstream acrylic fiber, nitrile rubber and other industries are mostly purchased on demand, and the offer of market traders is adjusted in a narrow range.

The listing price of some acrylonitrile manufacturers in November was slightly higher than that in October, and the market quotation changed slightly.

Listing price of domestic acrylonitrile in November

enterprise Listing price in November (yuan / ton)

Fushun Petrochemical sixteen thousand and five hundred

Anqing Petrochemical fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Zhejiang Petrochemical fourteen thousand and seven hundred

Shanghai SECCO fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Jilin Petrochemical fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Kollur fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Haijiang, Shandong fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Silbon fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts of business society believe that although the price of raw propylene rose this week, the overall decline of propylene price has been dominated since November. In addition, the risk of international crude oil falling in the near future is high, and it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may continue to fall in the later stage.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 25, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 89000.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market price of lithium iron phosphate operated smoothly, the overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was normal, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the manufacturers actively delivered goods.

This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate operated stably, the mainstream price was 89000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer shipped actively. At present, the supply side is normal, the focus of negotiation is stable, the downstream just needs procurement, the procurement atmosphere is general, the focus of the upstream market is high, the price rises, the lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is stable and small.

The price of upstream lithium carbonate rises slightly, the center of gravity is high, the lithium carbonate market is still in the demand range, the market inventory is still good, most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state, and it is expected that the price of short-term lithium carbonate is still in a strong consolidation state.

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to maintain a stable operation in the short term and the price fluctuation is limited. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).