DOP price fell on September 5

According to the data monitoring of business association, DOP prices fell on September 5, and DOP prices fell back. On September 5, the DOP price was 9912.50 yuan / ton, down 1.37% from the DOP price of 10050 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On September 5, the DOP commodity index was 71.52, down 0.99 points from yesterday, down 36.96% from 113.46 points (August 4, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 73.89% from 41.13 points, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now). Raw material prices fell, DOP costs fell, and DOP prices fell.

Key points of analysis

The price of raw material isooctanol fell, the price of phthalic anhydride temporarily stabilized, and the cost of DOP fell; The price of downstream plastic PVC is weak and stable, and the demand is temporarily stable; The downward pressure of plasticizers increased and the upward momentum weakened.

Future market expectations

The demand for cost reduction is temporarily stable, the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. It is expected that the DOP price will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of the business club, the domestic market of PA6 was sorted out and operated this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of September 2, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongjian 2.75-2.85 was about 13733.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 0.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the caprolactam market price is running at a high price this week, the price trend of raw material pure benzene is fluctuating, and the cost of caprolactam is generally supported. The market of downstream products is general, and the purchase of caprolactam is mainly just needed. Previously, the number of caprolactam production enterprises and equipment maintenance enterprises increased, and the decline of supply eased certain market pressure. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will be dominated by consolidation and operation in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market trend is high, and the cost end support of PA6 this week is OK. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants has limited changes, and generally remains at about 65%. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of polymerization enterprises is average. With the production and consumption of end-users, the shipment of chips increased this week, but the improvement of the overall demand for PA6 was limited. The buyer’s stock operation just needs to maintain production, power and production restrictions in some regions have ended, and it will take some time for the operating rate of end-users and the effect of demand release to appear. The buyer still takes flexible small orders and is cautious in purchasing. The business attitude is general, and the offer is subject to the market.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 has been sorted out this week, the price of caprolactam is strong, and the cost support of PA6 is OK. Downstream enterprises just need to take goods to maintain production, and PA6 offers to stop falling sideways. It still takes time to release the demand in the traditional demand peak season, and it is expected that the PA6 market will continue to sort out.

In August, the market of nitrile rubber declined slightly and ended at the end of the month. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of nitrile rubber at the beginning of the month was 16575 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 15912 yuan / ton. The price at the end of the month was 4.00% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the month was 15762 yuan / ton. In August, the nitrile rubber industry chain was still weak: the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile declined slightly, and the cost support continued to weaken; The pressure on the supply and demand side is large, which has a certain impact on the market. As of August 31, the mainstream offer of Russian nitrile 3365 market in East China was 14800-15000 yuan / ton, the mainstream offer of shunze nitrile 3355 market was 15000-15600 yuan / ton, the mainstream offer of Lanhua nitrile 3305 market was 14800-15200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream offer of Nandi nitrile 1052 market was 18500-18800 yuan / ton.

In August, the domestic nitrile rubber plant operated normally, and the supply side continued to be loose. The 100000 t / a nitrile unit of Lanzhou petrochemical works normally; The 30000 T / a nitrile rubber plant of Nanjing Jinpu YINGSA Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. was in normal production; The 30000 T / a nitrile rubber plant of arantai rubber has been restarted to normal operation; Zhenjiang Nandi 50000 T / a nitrile rubber plant is in normal production; Ningbo shunze 65000 T / a unit operates normally.

In August, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile fell slightly, and the cost of nitrile rubber weakened. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 8331 yuan / ton, down 10.96% from 9356 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of August 31, the price of acrylonitrile was 8900 yuan / ton, down 7.48% from 9620 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

There is no obvious increase in the start-up of the downstream nitrile products industry, and the market transactions are mainly small orders. With the arrival of the peak season, the downstream will gradually replenish the stock in small quantities.

Future forecast: nitrile analysts of business club believe that the cost and supply and demand of nitrile rubber are still relatively weak at present, but with the arrival of the golden nine silver ten, the overall industrial chain may improve, and it is expected that the price of nitrile rubber will rise slightly in the later period.

In August, the aluminum price fluctuated sideways

According to the data of business agency, on August 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18453.33 yuan / ton, down 0.65% on a daily basis, up 0.75% from the average market price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1), down 13.12% from the average market price of 21240 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value falls by 23.87%. Based on the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 17450 yuan / ton, and the recent recovery increases by 5.75%.

Overview of recent Fundamentals

1. Supply side:

At home, the power shortage in Sichuan has eased. Except for the high load industries, the power consumption of large industries is gradually restored. Aluminum profile enterprises in the aluminum industry are promoting the resumption of production; The start-up period of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is long after power limit and shutdown. On August 29, Zhongfu industrial announced that the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Guangyuan Linfeng and Guangyuan Zhongfu involved in the shutdown will be resumed in an orderly manner from August 28, 2022. At present, other enterprises are still in the state of shutdown; Most aluminum rod enterprises are temporarily shut down due to lack of aluminum water supply, and some production capacity using waste aluminum has been restored. It is expected that the supply of aluminum bars in Sichuan market will be tight in September.

Internationally, on August 30, Alcoa announced a reduction in production, and its lista electrolytic aluminum plant in Norway will reduce production by one third due to high energy costs. The aluminum plant has a production capacity of 94000 tons / year. The production reduction will be completed within 14 days, involving a production capacity of 31000 tons / year.

2. Demand side:

Domestic aluminum downstream consumption continued to be weak, and the regional epidemic and high-temperature power limit interfered with the downstream construction, and the aluminum rod and aluminum profile plants in Sichuan were basically shut down.

3. Inventory data:

The social inventory in the mainstream areas of domestic aluminum ingots is relatively stable, at a historical low level, and has accumulated a little recently. As of August 29, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots was 686000 tons.

4. Influencing factors of policy:

The domestic LPR reduction combined with the relevant policies of real estate, the news is favorable for the construction aluminum, but the short-term impact on the downstream demand of aluminum is limited. The hawkish probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in September has increased, the European economy has been hit hard by energy, and the manufacturing PMI index of Germany and France in August continues to be lower than the 50th percentile, which is not optimistic. Macro factors suppress international bulk prices.

Future market forecast

On the whole, overseas energy is still tight, Europe may face a more severe production reduction crisis, and some electrolytic aluminum production capacity is still expected to be reduced. On the domestic side, the power restriction is expected to be eased and the domestic supply is expected to be improved, but the uncertainty is still strong. In the short term, the aluminum price is mainly fluctuated in a wide range, with a range of 18000-19000 yuan / ton. In the future, attention will be paid to the downstream consumption and social inventory.

In August, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell

According to the data of the business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fell in August, and the price of aluminum fluoride declined. As of August 30, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10650 yuan / ton, down 2.74% from 10950 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. The demand for aluminum fluoride declined, and the market of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell.

High temperature power limited electrolytic aluminum enterprises started to decline

The office of emergency command leading group for energy supply guarantee of Sichuan Province issued a notice that in order to spare no effort to ensure safety, people’s livelihood and key points, Sichuan Province extended the period of industrial power limitation and shutdown to 24:00 on August 25. Affected by this, the production reduction scope of Sichuan electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been expanded comprehensively, and the operation capacity of Sichuan electrolytic aluminum is facing the risk of full shutdown, and the load reduction production in Chongqing is also affected. The start-up of electrolytic aluminum enterprises declined, the demand for aluminum fluoride declined, and the pressure of aluminum fluoride decline increased.

In August, the price of raw materials was relatively stable

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of fluorite rose slightly in August, with an increase of 1.92%; The price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, with a decrease of 0.09%. The raw material market fluctuated and adjusted slightly, the overall cost of aluminum fluoride was relatively stable, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride remained and the downward pressure weakened.

Adjustment of downstream cryolite price shock

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of cryolite was adjusted in August, and the cryolite market was consolidated. As of August 30, the price of cryolite was 7675 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from 7650 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of cryolite fluctuated and adjusted, the demand for cryolite was consolidated, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable.

In August, the market of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose in August, and the price of electrolytic aluminum rose. As of August 30, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18573.33 yuan / ton, up 1.40% from 18316.67 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. Under the influence of power limitation, the start-up of electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreased, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and increased, and the demand for aluminum fluoride decreased.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business agency, in August, the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials was relatively stable, the supply of aluminum fluoride was relatively stable, and the high-temperature power limit led to the decline in the start-up of electrolytic aluminum enterprises and the decline in the demand for aluminum fluoride. In the future, with the decrease of temperature and the increase of precipitation, the power restriction will be eased. It may take a long time for the power restriction to be fully lifted. In the short term, the demand for aluminum fluoride will be low. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will be stable in the short term, and there will be a certain increase in the future.

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride continued to rise this week. As of August 28, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7680.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.92% over the price of 7320.00 yuan / ton on August 22, and an increase of 0.79% over the same period of last month.

This week, the domestic benzoic maleic anhydride market was shut down. In the near future, the downstream unsaturated resin resin market started at a low level, and the demand was mainly rigid. As of December 28, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7600 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 7700 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 8000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 8000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene fluctuated this week. On August 28, the average price of pure benzene was 7608.83 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the average price of pure benzene was 7592.17 yuan / ton, up 0.22%. The delivery of pure benzene at the end of the month was basically completed, and the downstream demand was not improved well. The price of pure benzene refined in Shandong Province fell by a wide margin at the weekend. This week, the price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased slightly, reaching 7766.67 yuan / ton on August 28 and 7700.00 yuan / ton on August 22, with a price increase of 0.87%. As for n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5700 yuan / ton as of August 28.

According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of business club, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is in serious deficit at present, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation is small. The recent rise in the n-butane oxidation process is mainly due to the concentrated delivery of goods by downstream and merchants, and the tight delivery of the factory. At present, the supply of main production areas continues to increase, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to rise in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 26, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17500.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week. It was 2.94% higher than that at the beginning of the month, which was 6.25% lower than that at the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24333.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week. Compared with the price of 22500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, it increased by 8.15%, and increased by 9.77% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall price of refrigerant R22 kept steady, and the price offered by enterprises remained stable. The price of raw material chloroform rebounded in the whole month, the price of hydrofluoric acid continued to be weak and stable, and the raw material cost rose slightly. In addition, the price of R22 market in the future will be supported to a certain extent.

This week, the overall market price of R134a kept steady. Since August, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has been generally weak and stable, and the price of trichloroethylene has continued to rise. In addition, the production lines in some regions have been shut down for maintenance. The market supply of R134a has decreased slightly. Meanwhile, summer is the traditional peak season for refrigerant demand, and the cost and demand will further support the price of R134a in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business club, the enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, and the domestic R22 and R134a prices are expected to have some room for recovery in the short term under the support of the continuous high raw material cost and demand

On August 25, the price of aluminum fluoride was weak and temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, on August 25, the aluminum fluoride market was weak and temporarily stable, and the aluminum fluoride price was weak and temporarily stable. As of August 25, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on August 24 of the previous trading day, and decreased by 2.74% compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on August 1 at the beginning of the month, which was 10950 yuan / ton.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, the price of fluorite is temporarily stable, and the cost of aluminum fluoride is stable; Due to high temperature and drought, Sichuan limited power, electrolytic aluminum enterprises started to decline, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream fluctuated and increased, the price of cryolite was temporarily stable, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was low. The overall downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increased and the upward momentum weakened.

Future forecast

The cost is temporarily stable and the demand drops. The downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increases and the upward momentum remains. In the future, the market of aluminum fluoride tends to be weak and stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 24, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is referenced at 7133 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 7033 yuan / ton), the price is increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.42%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that from August to August (8.1-8.24), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole has been rising first and then falling. In the first ten days of August, the inventory of dimethyl carbonate in the market was low, and the supply side supported the market market. As of August 14, the factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was 7566 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 7% in half a month. At the end of August, the trading volume of dimethyl carbonate in the market turned weak, the trading atmosphere was general, and under the influence of insufficient demand support, the market of dimethyl carbonate began to move downward gradually on the 15th, and some factories began to sell goods at a profit. As of August 24, the factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 6400-7000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.42% in the month. At present, the atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market is still light, and the market consolidation is the main operation.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, from August to August (8.1-8.24), the domestic propylene oxide market has been in a volatile operation as a whole. According to the data of the business agency, the reference price of propylene oxide was 8933.33 yuan / ton on August 23, a decrease of 0.37% compared with that on August 1 (8966.67 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market is general, and the market is relatively stable. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will be adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

The phenol offers in the national markets today are as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 9150-9200, 50-100

Shandong Province, 9350, 50

Surrounding areas of Yanshan mountain, 9300, 30

South China, 9250-9300, 50

Today, the phenol Market in the mainstream regions of China has different rising trends. Although it is still mainly driven up, the increase is not obvious. In East China, the overall upward trend is 50-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation is close to 9200 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the supply pressure is not great. At present, the operating rate of the phenol ketone industry is around 80%, which is lower than that of the previous August. The supply side is reduced. The import source is relatively stable and the supply is flat. On the other hand, as the average contract price is on the high side near the end of the month, the holders have little intention to sell low. In addition, although the carriers are in the mood of pushing up, the terminal just needs to participate in replenishment, and the participation of intermediate traders is limited. In this case, the market shows a slight upward trend and the increase is limited.

Near the end of the month, the business agency expects that the market will continue to operate strongly tomorrow, and the mainstream reference in East China is 9250 yuan / ton.