1、 Price trend

Business agency: domestic maleic anhydride market declined in late February

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride as of February 28 was 7540.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 2.08% from 7700.00 yuan/ton on February 20.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on February 28 was 71.03, down 1.69 points from yesterday, down 57.32% from the highest point of 166.43 points in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 38.78% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In late February, the upstream n-butane and liquid anhydride prices continued to decline, and the downstream resin replenishment was prudent, and the purchase was based on demand. As of the 28th, solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7200 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 7200 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7500 yuan/ton.

The recent trend of international crude oil prices is volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, and the economic data is strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

In the upstream, the price of pure benzene rose in late February. The average price of pure benzene was 7013 yuan/ton on February 20 and 7103 yuan/ton on February 28, up 1.28%. The ex-factory price of hydrobenzene in North China rose by 0.74% to 6800 yuan/ton on February 20 and 6850 yuan/ton on February 28. In late February, the n-butane market declined as a whole, and as of February 28, the price in Shandong was about 5800 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The maleic anhydride product analyst of the Business Club believes that at present, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market has a serious deficit, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small; In the near future, the price of n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride has continued to decline, and some resins in the downstream are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in chasing up the price, and mainly purchase according to demand. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.

DOP prices fell sharply in February

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 27, the price of DOP was 9940 yuan/ton, down 7.19% from 10710 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the plasticizer enterprises resumed operation, and the operating rate of DOP production enterprises rose. In February, the DOP market fell sharply.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell in shock

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 27, the price of isooctanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, down 15.00% from the price of isooctanol on February 1, 10666.67 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is still weak, pre-holiday inventory is still in stock, and downstream customers are mostly bargain hunting. In February, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on DOP prices increased.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride slightly recovered

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 27, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 1.22% from the price of 8225 yuan/ton on February 1. The price of o-xylene rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride was strong. The price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly in February, and the upward momentum of DOP remained.

Downstream PVC market fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the PVC quotation was 6313.33 yuan/ton as of February 27, down 0.39% from the price of 6338.33 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, the market recovered and PVC demand slowly recovered, but the demand growth was less than expected. The growth of DOP demand was limited and the support for DOP growth was insufficient.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOP data analysts of the Business Agency, the price of isooctanol, the raw material of DOP, fell sharply in February, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the cost of DOP fell; PVC growth is less than expected, and DOP demand support is limited; However, after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), DOP enterprises resumed operation, and the supply of DOP increased. The overall demand growth was less than the supply growth, and the downward pressure on DOP increased. In the future, the demand for DOP in the future will recover slowly and the decline of cost will slow down. It is expected that the price of DOP in the future will fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 11600 yuan/ton on February 24. The domestic carbon black market price fell first and then rose this month, and the current shock is relatively strong.

Cost side: The current high price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material has been consolidated, continuing to rise. At present, the enthusiasm of coke enterprises to start construction is general, and the supply of coal tar market is still tight, showing a situation of tight supply and high price. Carbon black enterprises are under great pressure to receive goods, and most enterprises are in a loss situation. The resistance to coal tar is rising, but the willingness of coke enterprises to stand up is strong.

Supply and demand: At present, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises is stable and the market supply is sufficient.

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the overall operating rate has increased, but there is still resistance to the current carbon black price, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

In general, the high price of high temperature coal tar as raw material supports the price of carbon black. At present, the increase of demand for carbon black by downstream tire enterprises is dominated by favorable factors in the market as a whole. It is comprehensively estimated that the carbon black market will operate in a relatively strong way in the short term, and the future will focus on the recovery of demand in the downstream.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 23, 2023, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was referenced at 17660 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of February 1, 2023 (the reference price of silicone DMC was 16820 yuan/ton), the price increased by 840 yuan/ton, or 4.99%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that the domestic silicone DMC market has been steadily rising since February (2.01-2.23). After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand of organosilicon DMC recovered steadily, and the demand side support was still good. In the first ten days of February, the organosilicon DMC market ushered in a warmer operation. At the beginning of the month, Shandong large factories took the lead in raising the price of organosilicon DMC, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable and strong. Later, some other factories also followed in the footsteps of large factories, raising the price of organosilicon DMC successively. On February 15, The domestic market price of organic silicon is around 17300-17700 yuan/ton, and the DMC of organic silicon rose 4.04% in early February.

In late February, the rise of organosilicon DMC slowed down, and the price of organosilicon DMC in Shandong Dachang remained stable. Some suppliers in the market raised the price of organosilicon DMC sporadically and slightly, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. Then the market remained stable as a whole. On the 21st, the organosilicon DMC market experienced a partial rise, with an increase of about 200 yuan/ton, and the high price of organosilicon DMC reached around 18000 yuan/ton. As of February 23, the domestic market price of silicone DMC is about 17400-18000 yuan/ton.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organosilicon DMC is mild. After a small increase in the market, the bullish mood of the market is gradually rising, the enthusiasm of the downstream stage stock preparation is improved, the overall demand side is slightly boosted, and the operator is in a good mood. The organosilicon DMC factory is in a strong attitude of price appreciation as a whole. The traditional peak season in March is coming, and the market is expected as a whole. The organosilicon DMC data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, The domestic silicone DMC market will mostly be stable and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.

Price trend

The domestic ABS market fluctuated in the middle of February. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 20, the average price of the ABS sample products was 11833.33 yuan/ton, up and down by – 2.20% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS in the near future fell by two and rose by one. Among them, the price of acrylonitrile raw material fell slightly, while the cost side fell slightly; The high starting point in the downstream has just needed support for acrylonitrile, but due to the increase in the listing price of manufacturers in the early stage, the current market is against the high price supply, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Recently, the butadiene market was boosted by the export and the high guiding price of Sinopec, and the traders’ prices were mainly up. The whole market atmosphere was full of speculation. However, the growth of downstream synthetic rubber is limited, and the demand of the terminal has no obvious signs of improvement. The game between supply and demand is expected that the domestic butadiene market will settle at a high level in the short term.

The styrene market in Shandong is weak recently. In recent days, crude oil fell in the night market, and the cost support was poor. However, at present, the styrene port inventory fell rapidly. It is expected that the short-term styrene market volatility will rise.

On the supply side: the recent high load drop in ABS industry, the narrow decline in plant operation, a slight decrease in weekly production, and abundant supply of goods on the site. The factory continued the early destocking operation, the overall inventory position increased, and the supply side did not support the spot price well.

In terms of demand: downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have been generally motivated to prepare goods recently. It will take time for manufacturers to digest the inventory before festivals. The overall demand tends to be weak, and the flow of goods in the market is poor.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of February, the trend of ABS upstream three materials fluctuated, which generally supported the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started a narrow correction at a high level, and the supply remained at an adequate level. The demand-side support is poor, and the seller has built a warehouse, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to be weak and volatile in the short term.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell on February 20

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 20, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10700 yuan/ton, down 2.73% from the 11000 yuan/ton price of aluminum fluoride on February 19 of the previous trading day. The cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials continued to decline, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell on February 20.

Analysis points

As of February 20, the price of fluorite was 3050 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of fluorite on February 17 of the previous trading day, and decreased by 2.40% compared with the price of 3125 yuan/ton on February 13; As of February 20, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9828.57 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with 9828.57 yuan/ton of hydrofluoric acid on February 13. The price decline of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid slowed down, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, the sufficient supply of aluminum fluoride was weak, and the overall downward pressure of aluminum fluoride was high.

Later forecast

The supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient and the demand is insufficient, and the cost of raw materials is reduced. It is expected that aluminum fluoride will fall in the future.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite rose slightly this week. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2393.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 2400.00 yuan/ton, up 0.28% in the week.

In February, the price of upstream raw materials rose slightly to support the stable, medium and strong operation of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price. This week, the market price range of domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 2350-2500 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 2350-2450 yuan/ton. The inventory of enterprises continues to be low, the overall supply of sodium pyrosulfite market is tight, and enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation).

Since February, as of February 17, the price of domestic soda ash has risen slightly by 2.07%, and the price of sulfur has fallen by 1.42%. In general, the price of upstream raw materials has shown a rebound trend as a whole, and a small increase in cost will further support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Aftermarket forecast

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be stable and strong in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 16, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8566 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 500 yuan/ton, or 6.20%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the first ten days of February, the domestic propylene glycol market broke calm, the raw material propylene oxide market rose, and the support of propylene glycol from the cost side continued to strengthen. From February 1, the domestic propylene glycol market began to move steadily upward. The downstream demand of propylene glycol is gradually released, and the new orders are mostly purchased on demand. The overall demand of the market is cautious. The rise of propylene glycol is slowing down and running steadily towards the middle of February. As of February 15, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 8500-8700 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, at present, the prophase maintenance devices of propylene glycol have been resumed, and the overall supply of the site is gradually sufficient, and the market support provided by the supply side will be reduced in the short term. In terms of demand, at present, the delivery of propylene glycol is mainly based on export orders, and domestic downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

Future trend analysis

At present, with the favorable macro policy, the downstream demand will gradually recover, and the propylene glycol industry has a good mentality, with some expectations in the future. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will be able to operate slightly stronger, but affected by the start of the supply end devices and the rise of supply and demand, the market’s sharp rise is limited, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

DOP prices fell slightly on February 14

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 14, the price of DOP was 10100 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from 10110 yuan/ton on February 13 of the previous trading day; The price of DOP increased by 0.50% from 10050 yuan/ton on February 10 last weekend. This week, the price of DOP rose first and then fell, and the price of DOP consolidated.

Analysis points

The price of isooctanol stopped falling and recovered, the price of phthalic anhydride recovered slightly, the cost of DOP raw materials stabilized strongly, and the downward pressure of DOP weakened and the upward momentum increased; The downstream procurement situation is general, the price of PVC fluctuates and falls, the demand for plasticizer is weak, and the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP is high.

Aftermarket expectation

The demand for cost recovery is weak, and the plasticizer DOP is expected to consolidate in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of the Business Agency, as of February 13, 2023, the price of domestic n-propanol was referenced at 8000 yuan/ton. Compared with February 6, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8033 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%.

It can be seen from the monitoring chart of the data of the business agency that in the near future (2.6-2.13), the overall range of the domestic n-propanol market has fluctuated slightly. The news on the supply and demand side of n-propanol has not changed much, and dealers mostly adjust prices in a narrow range according to their own inventory and other factors. At present, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the trading atmosphere on the market is mild. As of February 13, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7400-7700 yuan/ton (bulk water). The market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region, and the negotiation is based on the actual order.

Prediction of future trend of n-propanol

After the Spring Festival, at present, the supply side of the domestic n-propanol market is relatively calm as a whole, and the downstream demand side is recovering in succession. The n-propanol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mostly fluctuate between large and small fluctuations, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes of the supply and demand side.