1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of baking soda is weak this month, with an average market price of 2435 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 2162.5 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has decreased by 11.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.19%. On March 30th, the baking soda commodity index was 143.53, a decrease of 0.83 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.14% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-10-10), and an increase of 62.60% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business news agency, the overall price of baking soda in March was weak, and downstream markets have been mainly purchasing according to demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 2000-2300 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. Raw materials: the current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2650-2850 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China has temporarily stabilized, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2750-2900 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the market is relatively mild, but the overall market just needs support.

In terms of demand: Downstream demand for baking soda in pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food is average this month. Raw material soda ash: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash stabilized in March. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2780 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2760 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 0.72%, an increase of 6.67% compared to the same period last year. The price of soda ash is in consolidation operation, and downstream pharmaceutical, textile, and food demand for baking soda is mostly on demand. The price of baking soda is in consolidation operation, and overall, baking soda prices may still be in consolidation operation in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

Price trend in March

According to the monitoring of bulk list data from Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in March decreased. As of March 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88% compared to the beginning of the month price of 7975 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 3.64%.

In March, the domestic cryolite market was relatively weak, and the prices of cryolite enterprises were generally lowered during the month. Some enterprises kept their prices stable based on their own shipment situation, resulting in lower fuel coal prices, lower cryolite costs, weaker terminal downstream destocking, and weaker demand for cryolite. In order to stimulate shipment, cryolite prices were lowered.

Analysis of upstream and downstream market conditions

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market rose in March, with mining enterprises facing safety and environmental requirements, resulting in low operating rates and tight spot supply of fluorite. At the same time, the demand side hydrofluoric acid price slightly increased, which brought some benefits to the fluorite market. The price trend of fluorite rebounded, and as of the end of the month, the average price of fluorite was 3037.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to the price of 2981.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream aluminum market fell first and then rose in March. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18676.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the average market price of 18416.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the aluminum price rebounded in January, it fell in mid February. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March, the aluminum price stopped falling and stabilized upward. In March, the overall aluminum price walked out of the “V” shape.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises have no inventory pressure, and their raw material supply is tight. Support for cryolite is still acceptable, and downstream demand follows up. The enterprise’s shipments are average, and the market supply and demand are stagnant. It is expected that the cryolite market will consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7636.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.31% compared to 8239.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refined and hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated downward.

According to the latest monitoring data from the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the mainstream factory price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7604.00 yuan/ton, down 6.66% from 8146.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and locally refined straight-run naphtha fluctuated downward.

The naphtha commodity index on March 31 was 94.25, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 22.52% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 123.13% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In March, the overall price of refined naphtha decreased. Currently, the mainstream price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7600-7700 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of straight-run naphtha is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton. The terminal reorganization just needs replenishment, and a small amount of ethylene demand is released. The market transaction is limited, and the transaction is average. In the week ended March 29, Singapore’s fuel inventory fell 470000 barrels to a two-week low of 22.578 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.441 million barrels to a three week low of 15.688 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventories increased by 224000 barrels to 9.851 million barrels, the highest level since October 2021.

Upstream: The price of crude oil rose in early March, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, has a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.

Downstream: In March, the overall price of toluene showed a downward trend. On March 1st, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the price was 7080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a decrease of 3.15%. In March, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated, with the price of 7450 yuan/ton on March 1 and 7570 yuan/ton on March 31, up 1.61% from the beginning of the month. In March, domestic PX prices remained stable, with a encouraging increase at the end of the month. In March, the overall price remained at 8500 yuan/ton, reaching 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In late March, the comprehensive operating rate of PX enterprises further increased, and PX market prices rose strongly.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Energy analysts from Business News believe that in March, the overall international crude oil market fluctuated and declined, with limited naphtha cost support and weak cost and demand. Terminal restructuring just required replenishment, a small amount of ethylene demand was released, market trading was cold, terminal demand was weak, and refineries actively reduced prices to ship. At the end of this month, some refining and reforming units will undergo centralized maintenance, and it is expected that naphtha refining will be mainly conducted in the near future.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) on March 1 was 8340 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 30 was 8275 yuan/ton. During the period, the decline was 0.77%, down 2.03% compared to February 1.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of LDPE (2426H) on March 1 was 9070 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 30 was 8887 yuan/ton. During the period, the decline was 2.01%, down 3.57% compared to the quotation on February 1.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of HDPE (5000S) on March 1 was 8533 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 30 was 8633 yuan/ton. During the period, the increase was 1.17%, up 0.78% compared to February 1.

Polyethylene was mixed in March. LLDPE and LDPE adjusted narrowly in the first half of the month, showing a downward trend in the second half. Near the end of the month, prices showed a slight upward trend, while HDPE prices were mainly strong after a slight increase at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, on the cost side, international crude oil futures rose, supporting the polyethylene market. March was the peak season for agricultural film demand, and the market demand was expected to be positive, with the price being raised. In the middle of the month, due to the international banking crisis, the macro market was heavily pessimistic, and the polyethylene market was somewhat dragged down. Near the end of the month, the trend of enterprise overhaul and spot price increase, coupled with the recovery of crude oil market, boosted the price of polyethylene.

The crude oil market is recovering, and the cost side may have some support. From March to April, there was an increase in the maintenance of devices, but the new capacity was gradually released, and the polyethylene supply pressure remained high. Downstream plastic mulch is in the peak season, with weak demand for plastic mulch. In terms of pipes, factory orders have been slow to follow up, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is not high, mainly in demand. Polyethylene analysts from the Business News Agency predict that polyethylene may be mainly operated in a weak and volatile manner.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on March 1 was 1116 yuan/ton, and the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on March 29 was 890 yuan/ton. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 20.30% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell sharply this month. In the first half of March, the market price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated slightly. The market demand for ammonium sulfate is stable, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with acceptable on-site trading. Export prices remained stable. In the second half of February, the price of ammonium sulfate continued to decline. The market demand for ammonium sulfate continues to weaken, with a small amount of downstream purchases and weak new orders. The export performance of ammonium sulfate is poor, and the market situation is sluggish. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate dropped significantly, and the domestic grade ammonium sulfate followed the downward trend. As of March 29, the mainstream ex-factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 860 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex-factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 870-920 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from January 2, 2023 to March 20, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in March, with the largest decline of -11.08% in the week of March 20.

The downstream compound fertilizer market is weak this month. The market for raw materials has weakened, and cost support has weakened. The manufacturer flexibly adjusts the price. The enthusiasm for terminal fertilizer use is not high, and the composite fertilizer market is dominated by low price transactions, with weak consolidation and operation in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from the Business Agency, the recent downturn in the ammonium sulfate market has resulted in weak intramarket trading, and the industry is mostly on the sidelines. The performance of the international market is still poor, with low order prices. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be weak in the short term, and the main trend will be consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from the Business News Agency, the price of chlorinated paraffins rose first and then decreased this month. On March 1st, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5766 yuan/ton. On March 28th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5733 yuan/ton. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 0.58% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, domestic chlorinated paraffin enterprises started construction stably, and the unit was operating normally. In early March, the prices of raw liquid chlorine and liquid wax continued to rise, strengthening cost support. The market demand is stable, and the transaction focus has increased. After that, the market demand for chlorinated paraffins weakened and the trust atmosphere was general. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and manufacturers have a strong attitude towards stabilizing prices, while the price of chlorinated paraffins remains stable. At the end of the month, the cost of chlorinated paraffins fell somewhat, and the transaction focus of chlorinated paraffins was lowered. As of March 28, the factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui Province was about 6300 yuan/ton, the factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Northeast China was about 5500-5800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong Province was about 5400 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from January 2, 2023 to March 20, 2023, it can be seen that domestic chlorinated paraffins fluctuate during the cycle. March was more stable.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose steadily in the first ten days of this month, with good intramarket trading. The price began to decline in the second ten days. Liquid wax fluctuates with crude oil prices. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price trend of liquid chlorine was relatively strong in the first half of this month, with a good market trading atmosphere and smooth enterprise shipments. Later this month, the price of liquid chlorine was lowered, resulting in average enterprise shipments and low enthusiasm for downstream procurement.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

According to chlorinated paraffins analysts from Business News, raw material prices have begun to fall recently, and cost support has weakened. Downstream demand performance was poor, and the transaction atmosphere was light. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffins will be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in raw material prices.

1、 Price data

As of March 27, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7599.00 yuan/ton, down 7.82% from 8244.00 yuan/ton on March 20. The actual transaction price of local refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

As of March 27, the average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 7514.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% compared to March 20, when the price was 8089.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

The naphtha commodity index on March 27 was 93.79, down 3.42 points from yesterday, down 22.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 122.04% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refined naphtha continued to decline, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring just required replenishment, and a small amount of ethylene demand was released. Market trading was limited, market trading was sluggish, and market sentiment was pessimistic.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, the pressure of the banking crisis eased, and the oil market rebounded from a low level. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, which met market expectations and suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes would be suspended. The decline of the US dollar supported the rise of oil prices.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of toluene has shown a downward trend this week. On March 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7300.00 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the benchmark price was 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42%. The expected decline in the long-term supply and inventory of toluene supports the mentality of businesses. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers is moderate, but the mentality of the industry is unstable. The volatility of the toluene market price still lacks autonomy, and it is still good in the short term. The price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On March 17th, the price was 7500 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the price was 7440 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from last week. In the PX market, this week, the overall operation of the px device was stable, with normal supply of goods on the site, good delivery, stable market operation, and temporarily stable price trend. As of the weekend, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Energy analysts from Business News believe that the price of refined naphtha has continued to decline this week, with strong market pessimism and weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring just requires replenishment, a small amount of ethylene demand is released, market trading is cold, terminal demand is weak, and refineries are actively reducing prices to ship. It is expected that refined naphtha may continue to decline in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week, with the average domestic PVC price of 613333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6041.67 yuan/ton on Friday. The price fell 1.49% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC continued to decline this week. This week, the spot market was relatively light, with futures market prices underperforming. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide was significantly reduced, and raw material support was weak. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence in the market. The inquiry atmosphere in the spot market is weak, and prices are falling. Downstream customers are more wait-and-see, and actual orders are cautiously traded. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5700-6250 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, according to monitoring, the domestic price of 92 # gasoline on the 23rd was 8456.4 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the price on the 10th; The domestic price of 0 # diesel oil is 7555.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the price on the 10th. Since the middle of the year, the crude oil market price has decreased significantly. Due to cost factors, the market price of refined oil has decreased slightly.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business News Agency, the average price of calcium carbide at the beginning of the week was 3350 yuan/ton, compared to 3066.67 yuan/ton on Friday, with a decrease of 8.46% during the week. The price of calcium carbide manufacturers fell sharply this week. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1250 yuan/ton, with low price consolidation and average carbide cost support. The downstream PVC market has recently declined slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. Superimposed high calcium carbide inventory, resulting in oversupply. In the future, it is expected that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and fall, with the main trend being consolidation: the average price quoted by manufacturers is around 3000 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

PVC analysts from Business News believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. At present, the demand for PVC spot market is weak. Upstream calcium carbide prices fell sharply, while crude oil market prices fell sharply, leaving the overall market atmosphere somewhat empty. It is expected that in the short term, there is no shortage of possibility for the PVC market to continue to explore, and close attention will be paid to changes in the news.

The domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has increased. As of the 17th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8700 yuan/ton, 1.90% higher than the price of 8537.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.52%.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable. The delivery situation of phthalic anhydride has improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly.

Cost side: price trend of ortho benzene market rises

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene has increased. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 8500 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend has increased by 2.41%. The ortho benzene supply is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but the port inventory has decreased. The rise in ortho benzene price has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market has increased slightly.

Demand side: The trend of DOP market is volatile, mainly based on demand procurement

The price trend in the downstream DOP market has fluctuated, with a slight increase of 0.10% this week. Currently, the domestic DOP price is 10010 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started operations steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand procurement. The mainstream DOP price is between 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand in the plasticizer industry is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level due to the impact of the DOP price fluctuation, but the overall price has increased slightly due to the support of raw materials.

In the future, the short-term price trend of ortho xylene is mainly upward, but the downstream plasticizer industry is operating in a volatile manner. The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand situation is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride will slightly increase in the future.

This week (3.13~3.20), the market for dichloromethane declined slightly. As of March 20, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2767 yuan/ton, down 2.72% from last Monday’s 2845 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, while the cost support for dichloromethane slightly weakened; The downstream refrigerant R32 price continues to rise slightly. In the peak season, support for dichloromethane procurement is just needed, but the supply of methane chloride is loose. The factory price of dichloromethane enterprises has been slightly adjusted, and the price of dichloromethane has decreased slightly.

This week (3.13~3.20), the start of the methane chloride plant fluctuated slightly, but the start of dichloromethane is still at a high level and the supply side is loose.

This week (3.13~3.20), the price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost support for dichloromethane was weak. According to the business news agency, as of March 20th, the spot price of methanol was 2633 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from 2647 yuan/ton last Monday. The low consolidation of international crude oil prices, coupled with fluctuations in the domestic raw material coal range, will not lead to a significant upward trend in methanol prices in the near future, and the cost of dichloromethane is expected to be stable and weak.

This week (3.13~3.20), the downstream refrigerant gradually entered the traditional peak season of the industry, with the inventory consumption and price of the downstream third generation refrigerant R32 rising, and dichloromethane replenished as needed. In addition, downstream pharmaceutical and diluent industries also have a strong demand for dichloromethane.

Future Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business News Agency, the downstream of dichloromethane is currently in need of support, but the industry is still at a high level and the supply side is loose, coupled with insufficient support on the cost side. Due to the fundamental game of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.