Supply side: Multiple factors affecting loose spot availability of fluorite
1. The mines are continuously resuming production, and the operating rate in the main production areas is increasing
Recently, the resumption of work in domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants has accelerated, and the core production areas in the north have gradually increased their operating load due to the warming weather; The safety and environmental protection inspections in major production areas such as Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia have slowed down, the operating rate has increased, and the supply of spot goods has increased. Newly discovered fluorite mines in Sichuan and Gansu have strengthened expectations of loose supply in the medium to long term, leading to a slight decline in the fluorite market.
2. Normalization of industry regulation makes it difficult to add new mines
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions measures has further compressed the market circulation of goods and suppressed the decline of fluorite raw materials.
3. Increase in import volume to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
The domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%. In January and February 2026, imports will continue to increase, with concentrated arrival at ports and prices generally 300-500 yuan/ton lower than domestic ones. In addition, low arsenic fluorite (≤ 0.0005%) in China has zero tariffs, further reducing import costs. Mongolia’s fluorite imports remain at a high level, driving down the domestic fluorite market prices.
Demand side: Traditional demand is weak, while rigid demand is the main source of procurement
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only over 50%, and most of them are operating at a loss. The procurement of essential needs is the main focus, which significantly reduces the price of upstream fluorite. Downstream refrigerants (R22/R32, etc.) are affected by quota and flat demand for household appliances, and the operating rate is difficult to exceed 50%. The purchase of hydrofluoric acid is weak, and the fluorite market has declined. However, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow, and the growth rate of demand for products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and fluorine-containing polymers is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices and limiting the decline of fluorite market.
Market forecast: Due to the warming weather in northern production areas and the accelerated resumption of mining production, some manufacturers in the domestic fluorite market have high inventory; The operating rate of downstream fluorine chemical industry has not changed much, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the price of fluorite may slightly decrease, but the cost inversion is obvious, and the decline of fluorite is limited.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment, multiple sets of equipment are still under maintenance, and the supply of goods is average. The favorable support from the supply side continues to support the market mentality of suppliers. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the domestic ex factory price of calcium carbide has been lowered from a high level. With the increase in previous prices driving the improvement of profitability, there has been an increase in the number of resuming production facilities, and the supply has gradually increased. The methanol market is fluctuating at a high level, supported by factors such as downstream olefin plant demand inquiries and purchases, and positive expectations for the restart of MTO plants in East China. The overall market sentiment is optimistic. The fluctuation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol, coupled with the continuous pressure of losses in the BDO industry, has been influenced by favorable factors on the BDO cost side.
On the demand side and downstream side, the PBT industry has seen an increase in production, while other downstream demands remain stable, resulting in an overall demand volume. The upstream raw material trend is relatively strong, the cost pressure is increasing, and the mainstream spot offer is at a high level. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future, with weakened supply side support and hindered transmission of industrial chain costs, market prices are expected to stabilize after rising. With the restart of maintenance equipment, the supply of goods has increased significantly, and the favorable support from the supply side has weakened. There is no significant improvement in downstream demand, and the pressure of supply and demand may increase, which is detrimental to the mentality of operators. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly consolidate after rising.

In March 2026, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province showed a significant upward trend in a stepped manner, with a monthly increase of up to 66.67%. The price of n-propanol climbed from 5100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8500 yuan/ton at the end of the month.
In early March (March 1st to March 7th), the Shandong n-propanol market saw an upward trend starting from the beginning of the month, with a 23.53% increase within 7 days. At this stage, the main factors are cost and post holiday replenishment, resulting in a wide range of stable price increases.
In mid March (March 8th to March 13th), the Shandong n-propanol market experienced a “pulse like” surge, with prices rapidly rising from 6300 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 30% in just six trading days, making it the core stage of the month’s rise. Under the dual driving force of tight supply and rising costs, the market has experienced a surge in prices.
At the end of mid March (March 14th to March 22nd), the Shandong n-propanol market experienced a slight correction, with prices briefly falling from 8300 yuan/ton to 7700 yuan/ton. The market entered a phase of observation, and downstream purchases showed fear due to high prices.
In late March (March 23 to March 31), the Shandong n-propanol market surged and stabilized again, with market prices rising again to 8500 yuan/ton. The sustained support on the cost side and market concerns about subsequent supply have pushed prices back into an upward trend, with prices stabilizing at a high level at the end of the month.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Macro and cost aspects: Geopolitical conflicts ignite the cost of the entire industry chain
The underlying logic behind the current price increase of n-propanol is the full chain cost transmission of crude oil → naphtha → ethylene → n-propanol. Geopolitical conflicts have escalated the situation in the Middle East, causing Brent crude oil prices to skyrocket from $73/barrel at the end of February to $101/barrel in mid March, an increase of over 38%. As the fundamental energy source of the chemical industry, the surge in crude oil prices is the “source flood” of chemical products. Its price increase directly pushes up the cost of ethylene raw materials such as naphtha and ethane, becoming the “source driving force” for the sharp rise in n-propanol prices.
Supply chain disruption: from rising costs to supply concerns
International crude oil is operating at a high level due to macroeconomic disturbances, driving up the cost of ethylene, a raw material for n-propanol. The current cost support is strong, and the profit margin of enterprises is significantly driven by raw material prices, becoming the core driving force for this round of price increases.
Supply and demand side: low inventory+rigid demand, amplifying the price increase effect
Supply side: Low inventory in the industry coupled with limited operating rates. After the Spring Festival in 2026, n-propanol companies generally maintained low inventory operations, and industry inventory was at a low level before the March price increase. Affected by a significant increase in costs, some small and medium-sized n-propanol enterprises have been forced to reduce or shut down due to cost inversion, leading to further contraction of the supply side and forming a feedback of “increasing prices, decreasing prices, and increasing prices”.
Demand side: There is a certain amount of downstream demand support, and the downstream application of n-propanol is concentrated in the fields of coatings, inks, pharmaceutical intermediates, etc. March coincides with the traditional production peak season, and the downstream operating rate is gradually released, which supports the price of essential procurement. Due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in the future, some downstream enterprises have stocked up and made purchases in advance, further driving up market prices.

3、 Future prospects
Analysis from the perspective of supply cost
Supporting factors: High prices of raw materials, uncertainty in supply side maintenance, and the continuation of traditional downstream demand peak seasons continue to provide support for prices.
Risk factors: High prices may suppress downstream purchasing intentions. If the raw material prices fall or the supply side recovers, there may be downward pressure on prices; The wait-and-see sentiment may exacerbate market volatility.
Analysis based on the Business Society Spot Market Analysis System
From the spot market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that on March 6th at the beginning of the month, the 10 day moving average of n-propanol began to cross the 20 day moving average, and during the month, all short-term (10 day) moving averages were higher than the long-term (20 day) moving average. Until the end of the month, the 10 day moving average of n-propanol remained above the 20 day moving average. Therefore, it is predicted that the price of n-propanol in the short term will have an upward trend.
However, auxiliary indicators show that the current price of n-propanol is already at a high level among the five levels. Therefore, the actual driving force for the continued surge in n-propanol prices in the future is limited, and the market is mainly adjusted in the high range. We still need to pay close attention to fluctuations in crude oil prices, equipment operation, and changes in downstream orders.